Prediction markets intelligence desk. Access real-time alerts on Telegram: @Predictbook.
Joined June 2022
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Predictbook retweeted
-Polymarket Odds of a 25-basis-point hike in Canadian interest now at 71%, versus no change at 29%.
-Earlier, I still had hold more likely, despite hike odds spiking to 30%.
-High inflation and rising fuel prices are pushing odds higher.
With @Predictbook
predictbook.co/analysis/are-…
Predictbook retweeted
Per @Predictbook, a $210.5k trade has been placed on Polymarket on Rams -3.5 on Thursday Night Football.
A potential $204k profit.
The Bills are 3-1 against the spread this season.
Predictbook retweeted
Our latest in the Weekly Pulse Substack:
-How much was in the Nobel Peace Prize pot?
-A $280k profit bet.
-Palantir's rally to a record high
-Volume trends you might want to know.
-A look at the week ahead.
With @Predictbook
predictbook.substack.com/p/t…
Predictbook retweeted
Odds for the OpenAI IPO falling short of the $1T valuation are rising fast.
-From 5% to 23% in a month.
-Funding in March closed at $952 billion valuation.
-Are Polymarket traders wrong about this AI disruptor?
With @Predictbook
predictbook.co/analysis/open…
Predictbook retweeted
Alphabet $GOOG, $GOOGL stock is oscillating around the $345 level.
-Polymarket traders are giving it a 30% chance to hit $380 in October.
-I think those odds are underpricing Alphabet's upside potential.
With @Predictbook
predictbook.co/analysis/are-…
Predictbook retweeted
The S&P 500 Index is on course to outperform both gold and Bitcoin bitcoin:native.
-Polymarket traders agree and are giving it a 67% chance at $0.70 per share.
-I think its chances are more nailed down than 67%.
With @Predictbook
predictbook.co/analysis/can-…
Predictbook retweeted
U.S. 10-year Treasury yield up to a new multi-decade high of 5.35%.
-Markets tracking the yield on Polymarket are also looking up.
-A 5.4% target chance is now at 73%, up from 63% when we covered yesterday.
-With @Predictbook
-Full analysis: predictbook.co/analysis/how-…
Predictbook retweeted
U.S. Treasuries hit new multi-year highs.
-30-year 5.64%
-10-year 5.29%
-5-year 5.06%
-Interest rates flat until Sept.
-At least one more hike expected before Dec. 31.
-Polymarket traders are looking up.
-With @Predictbook
predictbook.co/analysis/how-…
Predictbook retweeted
$SPY S&P 500 ETF price has doubled in the last 12 months.
-Set a new all-time high of $779 in August.
-Current price: $772.
-What price will it hit in October? $780 vs. $740
-More on @Predictbook
predictbook.co/analysis/how-…
ALT Will the S&P 500 ETF $SPY hit $740 or $780 in October?
Predictbook retweeted
Fed rate decision in October:
When I first made this call, a "no change" decision had a 34% chance. It's now all the way up to 83%.
I later did a deeper analysis for @Predictbook
More here: predictbook.co/analysis/what…
Will the U.S. #FederalReserve raise #interestrates in October?
polymarket.com/event/fed-dec…
This is another interesting market to look at for macro sentiment traders. Polymarket odds stand at 65% Yes and 34% No.
Scoop: No rate hikes in October in the last 10 years👀
Predictbook retweeted
Meta Platforms $META is just four weeks away from announcing its 3rd quarter results, and price predictions are getting interesting.
Can Meta set a new 52-week high before October 31?
More @Predictbook
predictbook.co/analysis/can-…
🤖 Made with AI
Predictbook retweeted
In July, SpaceX had an 86% chance of claiming the largest IPO market cap in 2026. Anthropic trailed far behind with just a 14% chance.
A lot has changed since then. Can Anthropic claim it?
Forecasts for a $2 trillion IPO.
More @Predictbook
predictbook.co/analysis/will…
🤖 Made with AI
Predictbook retweeted
BREAKING: After @POTUS announced on Truth Social that US forces have completely withdrawn from Iraq, @Polymarket 's odds of his approval rating crashing below 35% dropped from 32% to 28% in just 10 minutes.
Predictbook retweeted
Kimi Antonelli is basically a lock for the 2026 F1 title. @Polymarket has him at 91%, @Kalshi has him at 93%, with $203.5M and $9M traded respectively. Two very different sized markets, nearly the same price. That's efficient pricing.
Here are some things that pop out:
Predictbook retweeted
The chance of an October rate hike has fallen to 42%, while the chance of no change is 57% after Fed Chair Williams’ ‘no need for urgency’ statement.
December looks like the most likely month we will see another hike this year.
Live on @Predictbook
predictbook.co/analysis/what…
Predictbook retweeted
Analysis: Netanyahu's odds on @Polymarket got moved by a single trader.
A single account made 4 consecutive buys on the event “Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?” for Netanyahu YES, betting $150K+ in volume, in a market with a total volume of $5 million.
Predictbook retweeted
One Whale just made $122 from a $122,177 gold trade on Kalshi😀...Safe and sure!
@Predictbook Whale Alerts
predictbook.co/signals/whale…
