History, geopolitics, social issues. Peels apples with scalpels. Quiet civil conversations. Mostly somewhere in the moderate middle. Aspie. Mute button user.

Joined August 2011
Some of you may wonder about the name of this profile - Chamberlain's Ghost. Just briefly, when this war started in early 2022, I strongly expressed the view that Ukraine should seek a settlement with Russia as soon as possible. This was long before we all learned about the abortive Istanbul negotiations. For this I was pilloried by friend, family, acquaintance and stranger alike. I was labelled 'Putin's shill', 'Munich appeaser', 'Neville Chamberlain' and and many other things besides. But I was right then and I am still right now. The only solution to this war for Ukraine was and still is a negotiated peace. The only difference now from then is that now the terms will be worse, many people have died and a great deal of destruction has been done. This was, in the greater sense of matters, an avoidable war. People did not need to die and a country did not need to be wrecked. But in substance ideology preceded pragmatism.
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Footage of multiple Ukrainian Storm Shadow cruise missiles slamming into Russia’s Proton military electronics plant in Orel this weekend. The strike heavily damaged a chip fab at the factory.
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🔽 I wonder to what extent this is designed primarily to support the current de-escalation discussions in Tehran. Or are the Saudis trying to get out the firing line of Trump goes for order to strike? And is Trump waiting to see the outcome of the Israeli election? Lots of moving parts.
US forces in the Middle East are prepared to launch new, potentially major, military operations against Iran "within 96 hours of receiving" an order from President Donald Trump, according to two US officials. cnn.it/4dViptJ
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All these meaningless insults people throw around on this platform. Someone finally threw a novel one at me that made me pause. I was designated "Purim's useful idiot". I'm still wondering if it was a typo, some sort reference to my assumed ethnicity, some sort of appellation to Julius Streicher's final words or some other obscure thing. 😂 As I've said before folks, do your very worst. To me it's all just entertainment - like a passing pack of barking dogs.
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🔽 About Putin's NATO rollback demand.
Replying to @sandylanceley
Maybe. It could be a gambit to maximize demands with a view to forcing Ukrainian neutrality at a minimum. But I don't think so. The correct framing of this is that there will only be no NATO troops in those countries - other than the militaries of those countries themselves - which means in essence US troop withdrawal to those lines. But those countries will otherwise remain members of NATO. Given Witkoff's statements, Trump's NATO bearishness, general US desire to reduce NATO commitments, it may be a possibility. If one frames it as an alternative to a possible Ukrainian collapse or a pan-European war - of one accepts the premise of either of those being possible - then politically this looks like it could be saleable. Especially if Putin is willing to trade back on some of his Ukraine specific demands, which he should be as his primary security concern will have been addressed. I don't think it's all that far fetched. Not that I think it has a very high likelihood either.
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NEW: Egypt's Parliament Approves Military Support for Saudi Arabia Against Houthi Attacks Egypt's Parliament has authorized President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi to provide military support to Saudi Arabia against Houthi attacks, limiting any deployment to defensive operations on Saudi territory and ruling out strikes inside Yemen. clashreport.com/world/articl…
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The Economist. 🔽
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It's either genius or total idiocy. Which is hard to know for sure right now but for my money, setting about applying pressure to Russia by encircling it with nukes in the border states is not likely to have a happy outcome. See also post below this. 1/2
🇫🇷🇪🇺 The best news for Europe. Ten European countries have joined France’s nuclear deterrence initiative. All of this is due to a loss of trust in US protection This is the project I’ve pushed hardest for. This must pave the way for a European nuclear umbrella to replace American protection. Our own foreign policy, military coordination and an independent nuclear umbrella. This is the future of Europe in the 21st century.
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I see that Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baqaei stated that the talks “could pave the way for further steps toward establishing a regional security framework based on the interests and priorities of regional countries” and toward an “indigenous” or “endogenous” security framework - a goal Iran has advocated for decades and which Russia has supported for 20 years and around which they have written framework suggestions. Lavrov has described the Makkah Pact as a promising framework for collective security and a defensive alliance whose doors remain open. He has said that if conditions were agreed for Iran’s participation, it would be “the most practical step” and that Russia would respect any Iranian decision to engage with the pact and would not seek a leading role in such an arrangement. Now read this also together with Tom Barrack's views (see below). 1/2
Very significant. Mecca Pact parties discussing regional security with Iran. Working around the US by the look of it.
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I was trying to get a better and more objective sense of what Tom Barrack said at Doha given the quite fractured reporting around this - and that many people seem to be losing their minds about him saying that Iran is "not an evil regime". The overview below is quite useful. On the whole, the position Barrack was conveying seems pretty sane and to take account of US, realities. ~~~~ Tom Barrack (US Ambassador to Turkey & Special Envoy for Syria/Iraq) delivered a candid set of remarks at the 8th Global Security Forum in Doha on Oct 20, 2026. On the US security role in the Gulf: - “America as the guarantor to the world, for the last 80 years, it is no longer there.” - The decades-old security-for-oil arrangement is “transitioning,” not ending. “Owning doesn’t work. Controlling hasn’t worked. Every place we’ve tried to control — Libya, Afghanistan, Syria, Iraq — Iraq, what a disaster. So the bargain is not to own but to tend. Not to leave. We’re not leaving.” - He called it a “realignment,” not abandonment. Regional governments must take greater responsibility for their own defense and for deterring Iran and its proxies. “That’s not America’s job.” - On past policy: The US has been involved in roughly 23 regime-change efforts. “Every time we try and intervene, change the person or the regime, it seems to have been a mistake.” On Saudi Arabia vs. Houthis: - The US will provide logistical support, but direct ground/kinetic involvement is “fruitless” and not America’s job. - No blanket guarantees. The direction is regional security arrangements (involving partners such as Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, Turkey, and others), consistent with the Trump administration’s 2026 National Defense Strategy. On Iran specifically: Barrack drew a distinction between the Iranian system and the IRGC. He said the Iranian people are loved and adored, and described the Shia Twelver philosophy (the basis of the system since 1979) as a theocracy: “It’s a theocracy. It’s not an evil regime, that has nothing to do with it. That’s a religious content and practice that we all respect.” He then identified the IRGC as the problem: “The IRGC has become an adversary, and the IRGC and its adversarial role with Israel has been a problem.” He reiterated the lack of trust (especially with the IRGC) as the main barrier to a deal, while calling for a process involving a ceasefire in the straits, reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and easing hardship on the Iranian people. “Prosperity is the only answer.” He noted Trump is a “no forever wars president” and that the Iran war had “unintended consequences.” Broader framing: He advocated putting people “in a tent, give them coffee, put the guns and daggers on the table, and let’s figure something else out” through patience, presence, and dialogue. Reactions: - WSJ reported Barrack telling “nervous Gulf allies” the US cannot guarantee security forever. - Reporting from Al Jazeera, Al-Monitor, and others emphasized the nuance of transition and “we’re not leaving” rather than full abandonment. - His comments that Iran is “not an evil regime” (while labeling the IRGC an adversary) has drawn particular attention and criticism from some quarters for contrasting with broader administration rhetoric. - On social media, some accounts amplified a stronger “end of the US security umbrella” interpretation. In short, Barrack’s message was a reduced US willingness to serve as the indefinite sole guarantor, continued presence in a supporting role, a push for regional ownership of security, and a distinction between Iran’s theocratic system (which he said should be respected as religious practice) and the IRGC as the adversarial element.
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‼️ ‼️ This is really big. I have said many times that this was coming - but I did not expect it now already. Putin obviously believes that he has the necessary leverage now and it seems from what has been reported about Witkoff saying the European security architecture should be reviewed, that the US supports it.
Moskau holt Europa an den Verhandlungstisch, um dort den Abzug von NATO-Truppen aus Polen, Estland, Lettland, Litauen und Finnland zu verlangen. Nach Informationen aus diplomatischen Kreisen soll Putin in der nächsten Gesprächsrunde fordern, die NATO auf den Stand von 1997 zurückzuführen. Die Erweiterung des Bündnisses nennt er die „Grundursache" des Krieges. Für die Menschen in Tallinn, Riga, Vilnius, Warschau und Helsinki hieße das, dass ihre Länder ohne Bündnistruppen dastehen. Neben ihnen läge Russland mit seiner Armee. Putins Berater Uschakow sagte, mit den USA allein komme kein Abkommen zustande, weil Europa die Ukraine voll unterstütze. Deshalb müsse Europa mit am Tisch sitzen. Trumps Sondergesandter Witkoff hatte Putin in Sankt Petersburg angeboten, über den „breiteren Kontext" der Sicherheit in Europa zu sprechen. NATO-Generalsekretär Rutte weist den Truppenabzug zurück. Über die „Bedenken" Moskaus will das Bündnis trotzdem reden. Die europäischen Diplomaten sagen, ihre Haltung sei so fest wie im Februar 2022. Dieselben Forderungen hatte Russland im Dezember 2021 aufgestellt. Wenige Wochen später begann der Überfall auf die Ukraine. Quellen: The Telegraph, Focus .ua, Echo FM
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I read also that Netanyahu wanted to attack Iran over the weekend by the IDF Chief of Staff refused. Hopefully all this will swing undecided Israeli voters against Likud and Israel can put this chapter behind it. "This morning, I appealed to the Attorney General demanding the opening of a criminal investigation against Benjamin Netanyahu for the charge of treason. In the past month, Israel's Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, has been pressuring the heads of the security establishment to take steps that could create a miscalculation vis-à-vis Iran. The attempt to drag the State of Israel into war on the eve of elections, together with the willingness to sacrifice IDF soldiers solely due to fear of losing the elections, constitutes treason against the state, its security, and the IDF soldiers."
פניתי הבוקר ליועצת המשפטית לממשלה בדרישה לפתוח בחקירה פלילית נגד בנימין נתניהו באשמת בגידה. בחודש האחרון ראש ממשלת ישראל, בנימין נתניהו, לוחץ על ראשי מערכת הביטחון לנקוט צעדים שעלולים לייצר מיסקלקולציה מול איראן. הניסיון לגרור את מדינת ישראל ערב הבחירות למלחמה, יחד עם הנכונות להקריב את חיילי צה״ל רק בשל חשש מהפסד בבחירות, הם בגידה במדינה, בביטחונה ובחיילי צה״ל.
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Very interesting. Iran pushing back - and with some success.
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Well, I suppose it's no worse really than Annalena Baerbock having been president.
New: Sources from three countries confirm that the Trump Administration has advocated Viktor Orbán for UN Secretary-General. The US has encouraged Orbán to enter the race, even bringing him the initial idea of a joint U.S.-Russia-China candidacy. WSJ: wsj.com/opinion/viktor-orban…
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Very significant. Mecca Pact parties discussing regional security with Iran. Working around the US by the look of it.
Saudi Defense Minister Khalid bin Salman, Pakistan’s Army chief Asim Munir, and Turkey’s Intelligence head Ibrahim Kalin, will hold a joint meeting with Iranian officials in Tehran today. According to Iran’s National Security Council, the sides will discuss joint regional security.
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Major tension between the IDF Chief of Staff and Netanyahu around the Iran issue. 🔽 Read the comments too.
Israel's Channel 12 Reporting (English translation of their report:) Breaking news in this edition An unprecedented confrontation between the Chief of Staff and the Prime Minister has reached a critical—or perhaps disastrous—turning point over the last 24 hours. At the heart of the matter: the Iranian issue. There is concern on the part of [Chief of Staff] Zamir that Netanyahu and the political leadership might trigger a scenario of miscalculation vis-à-vis Iran, just ahead of the elections. A defense official states that the action in question could lead to a rapid confrontation with Iran at a highly sensitive and dramatic moment, potentially resulting in a miscalculation. Sources familiar with the details indicate that the military leadership fears an attempt to exploit the Iranian issue for political gain—a claim that political figures deny, labeling it an outright lie. Regardless, two sources tell me that the situation has escalated to the point where, during a visit to the Palmachim Airbase today, the atmosphere in the discussion was extremely tense. In recent days, Zamir received a directive from the political leadership but requested an in-depth discussion before taking any action. He also demanded formal, signed legal authorization from the political echelon for the proposed move. A senior defense official remarked: "History will not forget the role Zamir has played here over the last few days." In short: an exceptionally intense confrontation between Zamir and Netanyahu regarding the Iranian issue, occurring just before the elections. It should be noted: all details in this report have been approved by the Military Censor. Yaron Avraham
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הסיפור פשוט, או שנתניהו משקר ביודעין עכשיו לציבור, זורע בהלה בחסות קמפיין הבחירות ולעזאזל כל השא. או שהוא שיקר לציבור פעמיים לאחר שני מבצעים צבאיים שערכה ישראל נגד איראן. למה? כי אי אפשר לפרסם היום 48 שעות לפני הבחירות תמונה עם פצצת אטום על ת"א ולכתוב שאנחנו בסכנה קיומית ולפני שנה וחצי (!) לטעון בקולו שהסרנו את הסכנה הקיומית. כלומר אפשר, אבל צריך להיות בטוח שכווווווולם ממש ממש מטומטמים.
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Chamberlain's Ghost retweeted
“In 2025, before the large-scale winter attacks, local generation played a key role in supplying electricity to the city. According to sources at one of the energy companies who spoke to Ekonomichna Pravda, it may have accounted for as much as 1.3 GW. This came primarily from Kyiv CHP-5, CHP-6 and Darnytsia CHP (CHP-4) – combined heat and power plants (CHP plants) that produce both electricity and heat for the city's district heating network. These plants are now no longer able to generate electricity… In a relatively favourable scenario, energy workers will repair damaged equipment and new strikes will not cause critical losses. In that case, restrictions may be moderate, although avoiding power cuts altogether will be difficult. For consumers, this would mean 8-10 hours without electricity per day. If the attacks continue and some equipment remains damaged, Kyiv could face longer power cuts during moderately cold spells. Under this scenario, outages could last 12-16 hours per day. The worst-case scenario involves regular large-scale strikes on key substations and other elements of the power system amid severe frosts. In that case, restrictions could last up to 20 hours per day. However, sources in the energy sector interviewed by Ekonomichna Pravda do not believe in a scenario in which the Russians would manage to destroy everything and ‘plunge Kyiv into darkness’.” pravda.com.ua/eng/articles/2…
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