
@RALee85i
iAccount based inUnited States!
About this account
- Account based in
- United States
- Connected via
- United States App Store
! X says this location may be affected by a proxy or VPN.
Account-level information from X, not a live location or the device used for a specific post.
Senior Fellow @FPRI. Previously @USMC, @ColumbiaSIPA, @CentreAST. Focused on Russian defense policy.
Joined November 2015
- Tweets78.1K
- Following3.9K
- Followers704K
- Likes15.4K
Last month, I interviewed Lieutenant Colonel Vladyslav "Shram" Tovstyi, the commander of the 38th Marine Brigade's (@38obrmp) Corsair UAS Battalion for the Ukraine Military Podcast.
(00:00) Introduction
(03:35) The background of the Corsair Battalion
(04:40) What is the current situation and the effect of weather on the battlefield
(06:50) Russian tactics
(08:25) Assessment of Russia's Rubicon Center
(09:35) Effect of Russia scaling its unmanned systems forces
(10:45) What was the effect when Russia lost access to Starlink?
(11:20) What effect is Ukraine's Middle Strike campaign having on the front line?
(13:43) Urban warfare in Myrnohrad vs fighting for tree lines
(16:20) Role of fiber optic cable FPVs and what is the ratio of fiber optic to radio signal FPVs from both sides?
(19:35) Use of Starlink on FPVs and heavy bomber drones
(20:55) Accuracy of fiber optic cable and radio signal FPVs and how many FPVs are used per day
(25:15) The role of tall buildings in drone warfare
(26:45) UGV and UAS logistics
(29:10) How many heavy bomber drones do you lose per week and what are the typical missions?
(30:30) How many UGV missions are conducted per day and how many UGVs do you lose?
(32:09) Assessment of the E-points system
(34:15) What is the structure of your UAS Battalion?
(35:00) What lessons should other militaries draw from this war about drone warfare?
(37:15) What effect would another Russian mobilization have on the war?
(39:40) How many Molniya and FPV do you face per day?
youtube.com/watch?v=Kt2N-WEk…
Yesterday, a russian Geran-4/5 struck the Hospital and Institute of Cardiology in Solom'yanka, Kyiv
50.420375, 30.459610
@GeoConfirmed
t.me/gunpKyiv/17593
t.me/kievinfo_kyiv/104064
According to GUR, Russia's missile and OWA UAS production rate and (stockpile):
9M723-series Iskander-M: 65 per month (115)
Kh-101: 80 per month
Kalibr: 29 per month (450)
RM-48U: 40 per month (up to 400)
Oniks: 55 in the first 7 months of 2026 (600)
Tsirkon: 30 in 2026 (120)
OWA UAS: 10,000 per month (6,200), including:
Geran-2: up to 2,000 per month
Geran-4/5: up to 4,000 per month
Gerbera: hundreds per month
In addition, Russia is developing a modernized version of the Iskander-M (presumably 9M723) with a projected range of 550 to 700 kilometers.
nv.ua/ukr/ukraine/events/ozb…
pravda.com.ua/news/2026/10/2…
"Elon Musk ordered the slowdown of a military-grade version of Starlink relied on by Ukraine, a decision that sparked panic in Kyiv and confusion inside the Trump administration, U.S. officials and people familiar with the matter said.
Both Musk and President Trump have expressed anger at Ukraine for attacking Russian diesel refineries in recent weeks, which the president blames for high energy prices. Last week, Musk capped the speeds at which Ukrainian hardware could stay connected to the satellite-based network, the people said, rendering some offensive drones and interceptor drones virtually useless."
@jdawsey1 @alexbward @natalieandrews
wsj.com/world/ukraine-starli…
"Some U.S. officials say that Musk acted unilaterally and that Trump didn’t specifically order any retribution against Ukraine. But a person familiar with the situation said Musk talked to multiple senior administration officials, including with Trump, before imposing the new speed cap, which Ukrainian officials said had allowed Russian missiles to evade their defenses."
Our reported version of events differs from WSJ. A link below. But it does seem now like both parties knew and talked about it
reuters.com/world/europe/ord…
Rob Lee retweeted
I want to say thank you to everyone who has supported Ukraine throughout these years and ask for your help in the end of this text, please read the whole post and repost it greatly helps.
Today, russian terror continues all across Ukraine. Unable to make progress on the battlefield and achieve control over the Donbas, russia has switched to terror against Ukrainian cities.
Hundreds of families, children, and their mothers are being killed with no military objective. The only objective is terror, to make Ukraine unlivable, to make its people surrender.
As if that terror weren't enough, russia uses its influence over the US administration to pressure Ukraine into surrender.
The results are quite depressing. The death toll is terrible. Images of dead Ukrainian children and entire families are being suppressed by social media platforms run by russia-aligned oligarchs.
Ukraine is in a very tough position. But even considering all of that, Ukraine is still standing and holding off russian aggression.
The voices of traitors and enemies are getting louder: "Just die and let us move on to the next target."
You must understand exactly that. The goal is not to make Ukraine surrender so that it's all over. The goal is to destroy the precedent. The goal is to remove Ukraine as an obstacle to further conquest and terror against those who remain free.
I know it sounds dramatic, but if history teaches us anything, it's that after devouring one target and celebrating its success, the monster will only grow hungrier.
Most citizens of the West live without thinking about the death and suffering that could be unleashed against them.
They think that wars against them are a thing of the past, and that the protection provided is guaranteed. It's not.
The main message to Ukraine from tyrannical dictators and wannabes is that it's not a real country, that it's Ukraine's fault, that Ukraine started the war.
The gaslighting is there to make sure that no one will support you. If you think someone will come and help you, that may not be the case.
The techno-oligarchy will launch a wave of gaslighting, making the victim into a villain, an aggressor who could have just surrendered to stop the terror and suffering it inflicted on itself.
But Ukraine still stands, and it needs help.
Today, I'm fundraising to help Ukraine get critical engineering machines. These machines build shelters and bunkers that protect people from russian missiles, drones and bombs. These are excavators that dig deep into the ground to help Ukraine survive.
Our goal is to raise $100,000, and we're already 65% of the way there.
I'm asking you to donate, like, and share this message.
I want to say thank you to everyone who has supported Ukraine throughout these years and ask for your help in the end of this text.
donation link: givebutter.com/liberty-engin…
For those who missed it, our latest weekly talk is available on all our platforms.
We were delighted to welcome Rob Lee (@RALee85), Senior Fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute and former Marine infantry officer, to discuss the 🇷🇺Russian perspective on the K#ll Zone.
The conversation also featured Erlend (@edrotning), Joseph (@JThomason88), Stanimir (@delfoo) and Sirdo (@sirdo_)
🔗Listen here:
YouTube: youtube.com/watch?v=31GLq0pG…
Spotify: open.spotify.com/episode/5Lk…
Apple Podcasts: podcasts.apple.com/no/podcas…
According to Ukraine's Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War, 45,959 foreigners have signed contracts with the Russian Armed Forces during the war.
By year:
2022: 94
2023: 4,067
2024: 8,877
2025: 16,085
The first 9 months of 2026: 16,168.
In 2026, 1,449 citizens of Colombia, 699 of Burundi, 530 of Zimbabwe, and 503 of Peru have signed contracts.
In total, the largest number of foreigners are from Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and Belarus, but recruitment is growing fastest in Africa and Latin America.
pravda.com.ua/news/2026/10/2…
koordshtab.gov.ua/posts/45-9…
I've heard similar anecdotes from other exercises with NATO militaries with Ukrainian drone teams. The NATO force often takes heavy losses on the first day, but then quickly adapts on the subsequent days of the exercise. The write ups in the media often fail to mention these adaptations or the specific conditions of the exercise, which limits the ways the forces can operate.
In a U.S. Army war game in Germany, Ukrainian drone pilots playing the enemy caused about 70% of an American tank brigade’s losses in the first three days. Three days later, that figure was under 30%.
defence-blog.com/ukrainian-d…
"During Operation Vivaldi, units of the 3rd Army Corps successfully used armored vehicles twice to conduct mechanized assaults behind Russian lines...
According to Biletskyi, armored vehicles can no longer serve as a conventional reserve rapidly deployed after an enemy breakthrough.
'Today, the use of armored vehicles is effectively a special operation. It requires extremely detailed planning and the coordination of a huge number of assets,' he explained...
The first mechanized assault helped Ukrainian forces partially encircle the settlement of Nove.
During the second assault, Ukrainian armored vehicles advanced about 4.5 km behind Russian lines and deployed infantry in the rear of Russian units. The Ukrainian troops then attacked wooded areas where Russian drone operators were stationed.
According to Biletskyi, losing these positions deprived Russian forces of some reconnaissance capabilities and FPV drones, allowing Ukrainian units to keep advancing.
The deployed Ukrainian infantry operated virtually surrounded for several days while continuing to destroy Russian drone operators’ positions. Biletskyi said he believes the raid contributed to the subsequent collapse of a significant section of Russian defenses."
militarnyi.com/en/news/ukrai…
Major Taras Voznyuk has been appointed the new commander of the 10th Mountain Assault Brigade. He was previously the commander of the 3rd Army Corps' 25th Separate Anti-Tank Battalion and the first leadership change of an officer from 3rd Corps (and 3rd Assault Brigade) replacing a commander from a brigade in 11th Army Corps now under the command of Center GOF. 3rd Assault Brigade veterans will likely continue to take leadership positions in 19th and 11th Corps.
hromadske.ua/viyskovi/272565…
Rob Lee retweeted
Me and Tim reported this yesterday for the Kyiv Independent. Our story was later re-reported in the Washington Post and now has been confirmed by Zelensky himself.
Rob Lee retweeted
Our daughter’s classroom after a Russian ballistic missile struck nearby last night.
"The Trump administration has not approved the transfer of interceptor missiles to Ukraine that are needed to protect the country from Russian missile and drone attacks, officials said Monday, a delay that comes as President Donald Trump has embraced Russia and slammed Ukraine in recent weeks.
At least some of the transfers of Patriot interceptor missiles are from countries friendly to Ukraine that require Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth to approve the handoff, according to a U.S. official and three additional people familiar with the situation, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss diplomatic exchanges. The United States retains control because the weapons are made by it and are shipped abroad under the agreement that transfers to other countries require U.S. sign-off...
Officials said Hegseth has not formally rejected the transfers but also has not completed the required steps to approve them. Hegseth has continued to approve some U.S. assistance to Ukraine, they said."
@FrancescaEbel @John_Hudson @michaelbirnbaum
washingtonpost.com/politics/…
Another ballistic missile in the 3am wave impacted right outside Shuliavska Polyclinic, next to the mall struck in the QT.
50.451698, 30.445697
@GeoConfirmed
Reference: maps.app.goo.gl/gbr1kGyQ1uni…
t.me/kyivtv/155328
🇺🇦🇷🇺 A Russian strike hit the "Cosmo Multimall" shopping center in Kyiv.
📍 Geolocation: 50.45040, 30.44171
@GeoConfirmed @FaytuksNetwork @UAControlMap
1/2
Rob Lee retweeted
Ukraine’s cities are being left partially defenseless due to speed restrictions on Starshield terminals, says Andriy Biletskyi, commander of the Center military grouping.
Rob Lee retweeted
Russian significantly increases EW direction in their army. Would be interesting to see these kind of changes in NATO countries.
In particular, the plan provides for the creation of a separate EW battalion within the combined-arms army from 01.09.2026, and for the reorganization of EW companies into EW battalions within separate motor rifle brigades from 01.12.2026. As a result of the reorganization, the strength of the EW unit in a separate motor rifle brigade increases from 83 to 151 personnel, and the number of officers from 8 to 18.
The EW battalion will consist of a command element, a staff, a command post, an EW company, a radio jamming company, a command platoon, and a support platoon. The planned armament includes the RP-377UV, RB-504P, RB-338A, R-330Zh and R934B systems, command-and-control vehicles (shelters), and satellite and secure communications equipment.
This points to the adversary’s systematic buildup of EW capabilities at the tactical and operational-tactical levels, primarily to counter UAS, suppress control channels, and jam VHF radio communications.
“Overnight and this morning, Russia attacked energy facilities in Vinnytsia, Volyn, Kirovohrad, Kyiv, Mykolaiv, Zhytomyr, Khmelnytskyi, Kharkiv, Ternopil, Odesa and Rivne oblasts. In just one night, more than 10 energy infrastructure facilities were damaged and the lights went out for at least 550,000 families. Repair crews are working at the sites."
“As of the morning, there are new power outages in Volyn, Zhytomyr, Rivne, Ternopil, Khmelnytskyi, Vinnytsia, Kirovohrad, Kharkiv, Odesa and Mykolaiv oblasts”
“A Russian ballistic missile attack overnight on 18-19 October rendered all telecoms operator Datagroup's data centre equipment and infrastructure completely inoperable, making it impossible to resume operations.”
“The Cosmo Multimall shopping centre, formerly known as Cosmopolite, has sustained severe damage as a result of a Russian attack on Kyiv on the night of 18-19 October.”
Colonel Yurii Ihnat: “"There are indeed certain issues, but I want to say right away... there were two ballistic missile strikes. One at 23:00 and the second at 03:00.
Regarding the air-raid warnings, the situation is roughly the same as in previous strikes. Remember when we had 39 missiles in that massive strike? Again, information from our partners did not arrive the first time, but it did the second time.
Essentially, the same thing happened last night.”
pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2026/…
pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2026/…
pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2026/…
pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2026/…



























