Ray.NebiusMaxxing 🇸🇬

Our full Nebius 2027 report, now free to read, with all price targets and the assumptions behind them: northwiseproject.com/researc…

With $NBIS reporting Thursday, November 12, and so much fear and volatility across AI infrastructure, we’ve made our latest Nebius 2027 report free to read in full, including the valuation and every price target our Premium members received in October. We think the market is underestimating how much business Nebius can deliver next year. In our October 26 report, we forecast $21.86B of 2027 revenue against the $12.24B Street estimate we reviewed, a gap of 78.5%. Our EBITDA forecast is $12.49B against $6.53B, or 91.3% higher. Most of that difference comes from the amount of capacity we expect to earn revenue during 2027. We worked through the sites, hardware deliveries, customer commitments and commissioning schedules quarter by quarter. At our expected fleet yield, the Street revenue estimate would require roughly 513 average billable MW. Our model reaches about 938 MW. Our targets for December 31, 2027: Bear: $340.31 Base: $471.44 Bull: $628.75 Probability-weighted: $479.29 We weight those cases 30%, 40% and 30%. Even our Bear case produces $19.07B of revenue, more than 50% above the Street estimate in the report. Our disagreement with consensus runs through the operating forecast, well before we put a valuation multiple on the business. The build accelerates sharply toward the end of 2027. Our Base case closes the year with 1,613 MW of accepted IT capacity, but much of it earns revenue for only part of the year. Pennsylvania and Independence arrive late in our schedule. We expect a much larger business by December, while recognizing that a delayed commissioning date would remove months of revenue from the forecast. We also follow who is paying for that capacity and on what terms. Longer contracts bring customer advances that help fund construction and equipment. Shorter contracts give Nebius more exposure to the prices customers are willing to pay for scarce compute. We expect that mix to support strong growth, with the financing burden increasing if prices weaken or customers contribute less cash upfront. Our Base case includes $58.77B of cash capex and $12.46B of new equity during 2027. Those new shares are already included in our targets. We remain bullish after allowing for that financing because we expect the additional capacity to support far more revenue and earnings than the Street estimates in our report. Thursday’s disclosures will help us judge whether the sites, contracts and financing are progressing as we expect. After earnings, we’ll refresh the data and publish separate Premium models for each individual year: 2027, 2028, 2029 and 2030. Members will be able to follow how the expansion develops year by year, including the revenue, funding needs and dilution along the way. Our members received this research first, and their support allows us to open selected reports to the wider community. We hope this one gives people something useful to work through ahead of Thursday. The full report is linked in the first reply. Thanks again for supporting independent research.