Investments | Macro | Crypto | Tennis
Joined August 2011
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My 9 games #My9Games my9games.net/en/share/91ab7a…
Awesome memories 😍
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Ben retweeted
The Dutch can spend €4,000 on a holiday and come home mainly furious about the €6 parking fee.
The hotel was beautiful, the Mediterranean was warm and dinner overlooking the sea was excellent, but six euros to leave the car somewhere for two hours? “Pure theft.” That story will be told at birthdays until at least 2034.
It isn't even that we're particularly cheap. Dutch people happily spend serious money on houses, holidays, bicycles and coffee made by someone who needs fifteen minutes to explain the childhood of the bean. We simply have an almost pathological need to believe that the price is fair.
A €100 dinner we chose ourselves can be perfectly acceptable, while being charged €1 to use the toilet afterward feels like a personal betrayal. We'll buy a €1,200 television without blinking and then visit another supermarket because butter is 70 cents cheaper there.
Online shopping reveals the condition beautifully. A product costing €29 plus €6 shipping feels outrageous, while the exact same thing for €37 with FREE SHIPPING suddenly looks like excellent business.
Perhaps centuries of merchants did something permanent to us. Somewhere inside every Dutch person sits a tiny seventeenth-century accountant quietly checking the numbers and becoming increasingly suspicious.
We don't necessarily mind spending money.
We just need to leave convinced that nobody screwed us.
Ben retweeted
bear market astrology
- ogs sell >100k. selling above the 6-fig psychological accomplishment after holding for a decade+. below this round number they'll wait it out.
- etf holders (retail and hedge funds) accelerate selling below 100k. they r simply trend-following paperhands.
- at some point (80-90k) these sellers exhaust and more long term buyers come in. a local bottom forms.
- we pump to near 100k making everyone believe we r back. typical bear market rally that makes bears doubt their view.
- "macro" actually deteriorates and we bleed to 60-70k
- 6-9mo of consolidation in this area including one final capitulation leg down. no one believes we'll ever come back except for 5 ppl on this site.
- new cycle begins.
Ben retweeted
“Huishoudens in ons land hadden eind juni voor in totaal 234,2 miljard euro aan beleggingen. Nog nooit was dat bedrag zo hoog.”
Zo kopt RTL Z vandaag. Dan denk je: mooi, we komen eindelijk ergens.
Niet dat dit bedrag zo hoog zal blijven met de box 3-wanhoop die eraan zit te komen, maar dat terzijde.
Dan lees je verder en valt toch vooral dit op:
“We blijven overigens vooral spaarders. Eind juni hadden Nederlandse huishoudens bijna 553 miljard euro op spaarrekeningen staan.”
Ontzettend zonde dat nog steeds ruim 70% van ons financiële vermogen staat te verdampen op spaarrekeningen die de inflatie niet bijhouden.
En per 2028 zal deze verhouding alsmaar erger worden.
Ben retweeted
What a way to be send home. Marocco deserved this big time.
But the issue is that we have a coach who seemingly understands very little about confidence.
We outperformed expectations in the pool phase, and should have always played with 3 midfielders allowing for good pressure on the ball, which we never had. Below 40% ball possession, unheard off for a team who likes to have the ball. The goal was one moment of brilliance, other than that we messed up every other opportunity - confidence.
The players deserved much much more, but had an absolute terrible coach.
Ben retweeted
Update: one year ago today the $VIX closed above 50, a signal with a 100% win rate over the following year and an average S&P 500 return of 35%. The S&P 500 has gained 38% since then, adding to the list of times when it paid to be greedy when others were fearful. $SPX
The $VIX closed above 50 today which is in the top 1% of historical readings.
What has happened in the past following closes above 50?
S&P 500 gains over the next 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 years every time with above-average returns overall.
$VIX $SPX
bilello.blog/newsletter
Ben retweeted
The happiest countries in the world tend to have the most heavy metal bands.
stevestewartwilliams.com/p/p…
Ben retweeted
Going back to 1995, the US has never performed worse compared to international stocks YTD @augurinfinity
Ben retweeted
Het probleem: skin in the game
De meeste ambtenaren en politici zijn:
- geen belegger
- geen ondernemer
- geen risk taker
Voor hen persoonlijk en de mensen om hen heen is het box 3-voorstel prima.
Ze hebben geen illiquide beleggingen, geen volatiliteit, geen concentrated bets, geen hoge pieken en diepe dalen.
Ze zijn zelf niet blootgesteld aan de gevolgen van hun beleid.
Ze hebben geen skin in the game.
Handtekening eronder en op naar het volgende dossier.
Maar intussen straffen ze risico nemen, frustreren ze ondernemerschap en ontmoedigen ze vermogensopbouw.
Echt om verdrietig van te worden.
Ben retweeted
De Wet Werkelijk Rendement box 3 is aangenomen, maar fundamenteel fout. Belasting op papieren winsten, geen inflatiecorrectie, meer onzekerheid. Onze verbeterende amendementen, zoals belastingteruggave bij verlies, zijn verworpen. JA21 stemt dus tegen deze wet. 👇
Ben retweeted
I have never been more bullish on crypto.
Because the rules-based order is collapsing and the code-based order is rising. So the short term price doesn’t matter.
As international law breaks down, we will need not just onchain currencies, but onchain companies. As the post-war order breaks down, we’ll similarly need the post-internet order. States will fail, and the network will take their place.
We need internet capitalism, we need internet democracy, and we need internet privacy. So we need cryptocurrency.
