RogueMacro

Every week I publish my Macro Missive. My macro framework is unique and excellent for understanding where the economy, markets, and humanity are heading. I track the key indicators, interpret the important headlines, and discuss deeper economic concepts. MEMBERS GET: ✓ Clear framework ✓ Neutral analysis ✓ Long-term trends tempering short-term extremes ✓ Data + framework = predictions ✓ Actionable insights MEMBERS DON'T GET: ✗ Perma-bear doom to spike adrenaline ✗ Bias reinforcement ✗ Catastrophism ✗ Conclusion-driven interpretation ✗ Anti-American bias You can start with the free posts, purchase individual reports, or become a Pro Member. You'll also be supporting independent economic research free from perma-bear doom, anti-American pessimism, and the recycled talking points that dominate financial commentary!

Ernest wins the internet today. 🔥🔥

📊Democrats thought months of fake polls would demoralize Republicans away from voting. What they miss is we know how dangerously radical the left is today (DSA, Mandani, Al-Sayed, jihads, Somalis, commies), so fake polls increase Republican turn out. 🗳️

You can see the exact year the left went radical. They turned into a death cult.

The Navajo had slaves, too. At least 5% of their total population. Rich Navajo settlements as high as 38%. Warfare and raiding, enslaving neighboring people was common place for the Navajo. The Comanche and Utes took Navajo as slaves, and vice versa. Americans gave them an uncontested homeland. Their reservation today is almost certainly larger than the territory they exclusively occupied before American conquest. "Their land" was also claimed by other peoples, including the Hopi, Ute, Comanche, Apache, and Pueblo communities. You're welcome.

#FOMC maintains rates as expected. Here's the rundown and my commentary. They claim economic activity is expanding at a "strong" pace. I'd call it a decent pace, not strong. Real GDP growth for 2026 is forecast for 2-3%. "Strong" would be 4%+ IMO. Uncertainty is blamed on geopolitical events, and midterms not mentioned. I think midterms are a bigger deal over the last 2 months now, than the Iran non-war. Consumer spending is "resilient," despite elevated inflation, deportations, and tariffs. Important to say, and true IMO. Productivity growth is "strong" and capital investment is "robust." While true, this masks any fragility to this story. Capital investment, driven by AI investing, is weakening. Unemployment rate is stable. I think this is important because of those things mentioned above, inflation, deportations, and tariffs. Youth underemployment is a growing problem IMO. Hilariously, they name the dissenters, and among them is Lisa Cook. She's the one you committed massive mortgage fraud and Trump is at SCOTUS trying to fire her "for cause." I think the executive will eventually win that battle, and Fed independence will be radically altered.

More signs of the Republicans maintaining control of both houses of Congress! It's happening!

#FOMC today. Decision drops at 2pm ET. Fed Funds are pricing in 90% chance of maintaining current range. It's highly unlikely that they surprise the current market with a hike. And a surprise cut is also highly unlikely due to the proximity to the election. Yields have cooled off from their September highs as forecasted here. PCE inflation is stable though elevated. Trimmed-mean PCE is slowly falling, currently at 2.2% YoY, and 1.9% MoM. Simply no reason to hike or cut. The easiest job in the world is that of a voting member of the FOMC. Just do what's priced in and predict steadily approaching your long-term goals.

#Dollar $DXY quietly breaking upward.

Vivek being acknowledged now as the leader. Guys, voting intentions don't flipflop like this. The earlier polls were FAKE PROPAGANDA. They're converging on to the real state of affairs as the election gets closer.

🔥🇺🇸 "RED WAVE" Told you. The red wave is coming. This is the last election the democrats could have scratched back some power. They're finished. Marxists lost, conservatives won. God bless America.

Everything is fake

I get the feeling the IRGC are realizing Trump and Republicans will win the midterms, so they want to start talking. The days after the midterms are going to be very bad for them.