Senior fellow: @WashInstitute, PhD candidate: @WarStudies. Formerly: DoD. Tracking: arms transfers, great powers, and the Middle East.
Washington, DC
Joined April 2021
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"Analysts who insist that weakening Iran is some clever gambit in countering China are missing the forest for the trees."
Latest with @michaelsobolik for @thedispatch:
thedispatch.com/article/chin…
"In some variants, the nose section carrying the explosive warhead detaches during the final phase of flight and uses a small engine to adjust direction as it nears its target at 6,000 miles an hour."
wsj.com/world/middle-east/ho…
Grant Rumley retweeted
“China is essentially key to keeping the Iranian regime afloat at the moment,” @RumleyGM told @AlMonitor. al-monitor.com/originals/202…
Grant Rumley retweeted
ANALYSIS | Despite Trump meeting fanfare, Xi shows no sign of breaking with Iran
Beijing has significant leverage over Tehran, but little incentive to use it for Washington’s benefit, given its reliance on Iranian oil. Via @roscarroll_
al-monitor.com/originals/202…
Grant Rumley retweeted
Bloomberg: The Chinese government has taken possession of potentially sensitive F-35 stealth aircraft parts that were inexplicably diverted to Hong Kong while being sent to the US from Australia, people briefed on the incident said.
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Grant Rumley retweeted
From #Iran to AI (or SI, as @POTUS wants us to say), the #MiddleEast looms large on the Trump-Xi agenda. Here's how my @WashInstitute colleagues -- and former Pentagon officials -- @RumleyGM & @LizyDent think the conversation will go. washingtoninstitute.org/poli…
Grant Rumley retweeted
This week, the White House will host Chinese President Xi Jinping for his first visit to the U.S. since 2023. How will Middle East issues factor into President Trump and Xi’s attempts to establish a stable framework for future relations? @RumleyGM and Elizabeth Dent explain. washingtoninstitute.org/poli…
Grant Rumley retweeted
“Options for addressing the Houthi challenge are moving from bad to worse,” write April Longley Alley and Allison Minor in @ForeignAffairs. foreignaffairs.com/yemen/ira…
Grant Rumley retweeted
I saw a real missile made by North Korea in Ukraine. I did not see a Chinese missile. But I know that their technologies get to Russia. The machinery they use comes from China, likely along with smart people and technologies.
I don’t see China pushing Russia to stop the war. I never saw that. Maybe they do that during some of their bilateral meetings. I don’t know. But I think that they have huge influence over Russia, especially now, when there are a lot of sanctions, the shadow fleet, and cut-off energy and banking systems. Of course, China can find a way to push Putin toward negotiations. I’m sure, but they didn’t do it. And if you can and don’t, is it support or not?
It’s a pity that China is not on our side in this war, politically. It’s not even about weapons. It’s about political will. And it’s a pity because this war can be stopped immediately by strong leaders, including China. It’s a pity that they are not on our side. But that’s not the problem. That’s a pity. The problem is that they are not in the middle. Because they are a little bit more with Russia. And for them to be a little bit more with Russia – I mean, not to give weapons directly, but to be more open to them, more helpful to them than to us – for such a big country, a little bit is a lot.
From an interview with NHK. (3/3)
Grant Rumley retweeted
“China and Russia remain the key enablers of Iran’s wartime economy and capabilities,” @RumleyGM said at the Hili Forum in Abu Dhabi.
Grant Rumley retweeted
The rapid Houthi gains along the Red Sea should be a wake-up call: there is still no credible military solution to Houthi threats. But the region & US also cannot afford to ignore those threats. April Alley and I offer an alternative approach in our new piece in Foreign Affairs
If the anti-Houthi coalition fails to address its internal divisions and establish a “credible political vision for resolving the Yemeni conflict,” the Houthi threat will continue to expand across the region, warn April Longley Alley and @AllisonMinor_.
foreignaffairs.com/yemen/ira…
This should be yet another warning sign to traditional FMF recipients like Egypt and Jordan that their annual military aid is not sacrosanct:
apnews.com/article/foreign-m…
"Iran has used the arrangement to buy medicines, vehicles and communication equipment from China ... The mechanism was also used at least once in the past year in connection with contracts to supply Iran with air defense equipment worth millions of dollars."
Exclusive: Iran has used a barter-like arrangement to bypass sanctions on its oil sales and buy billions of dollars’ worth of goods from China, including military gear reut.rs/4xaqFN3
Grant Rumley retweeted
Will great power competition undermine multilateralism or will we see an other forces fill the gaps and sustain ideas like shared security, prosperity and laws of global cooperation?
Join this hiliforum.ae/en session organized by @ECSSRMonitor & @AGDAUAE
Grant Rumley retweeted
Key highlights from the remarks of Grant Rumley, Senior Fellow, Washington Institute for Near East Policy, USA, during the Concurrent Session “Great Power Politics and Multilateralism” at the third edition of #HiliForum:
There is one consistent bipartisan trend line in Washington: a concerted effort to refocus American foreign policy towards the competition with China, with competition with China and Russia becoming the organizing principle of the U.S. military rather than the war on terror as the leading focus of American foreign policy.
#HiliForum2026
#HiliForum
#theecssr
Grant Rumley retweeted
China has already said publicly that it would retaliate if the U.S. goes after its companies, and Xi Jinping knows it has the power to do so, write Henry Tugendhat and Grant Rumley.
foreignpolicy.com/2026/09/03…
Grant Rumley retweeted
“There’s a fatal flaw to the Trump administration’s recently announced ‘economic D-Day’ against Iran,” write @RumleyGM and @hentug in @ForeignPolicy. While the U.S. pressure campaign was designed to cut off all money flows that support the tyrannical regime, “Iran’s single greatest lifeline, China, went unnamed.” washingtoninstitute.org/poli…
At the end of the day, China is the primary economic lifeline for Iran. So long as the U.S. is unable or unwilling to sever this lifeline, Beijing isn't going to lose any sleep over Operation Economic Outcast. My latest with @hentug for @ForeignPolicy:
foreignpolicy.com/2026/09/03…
Grant Rumley retweeted
Sisi: "Taiwan is an inseparable part of China". This isn't surprising. Egypt doesn't recognise Taiwan and has long backed Beijing's position.
Undoubtedly more forceful language from Sisi, but still largely consistent with the pre-Iran war trajectory. From a joint 2024 readout:
"The Egyptian side affirmed its continued commitment to the One China principle and that Taiwan is an integral part of China, and supported the position of the Chinese side on issues related to China’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, supporting the achievement of China's reunification, and rejecting foreign interference in China's internal affairs."
presidency.eg/en/%D9%82%D8%B…
Grant Rumley retweeted
President Xi has arrived in Cairo; the first time in a decade.
@RumleyGM and I write that while the Presidents are likely to discuss a broad file of issues that include trade and telecomms — Sisi is likely to be disappointed on Gaza and the Red Sea.
washingtoninstitute.org/poli…
