Big news to share: my book West Asia: A New American Grand Strategy in the Middle East is coming out in November 2025 with @politybooks.

America’s financial superpower

What happens in the Gulf doesn't stay in the Gulf.. Yesterday I joined @BeckyCNN on @CNN from Abu Dhabi to talk through where the region stands. Yemen: The Saudi defense minister's visit to Abu Dhabi matters. Riyadh and Abu Dhabi have more in common on Yemen than before, and the Houthis are pushing a two-front war on Iran's behalf. Russia: It's no longer speculation that Moscow gave Iran equipment and targeting capacity early in the war.. Capital: I'm not worried about Gulf sovereign wealth funds in the year ahead. They are long-horizon investors with strong, successful bets. But the longer the war runs, the more budgets and reconstruction bills could come under strain. Watch 2027. AI Infrastructure: The fundamentals haven't changed: abundant energy, capital, political commitment, and proximity to markets that need compute. The world needs about 150 GW online in three years, at roughly $50B per gigawatt. Few places outside the US and China can fund that. What has changed is the security profile, so data centers will go underground and inside air defense umbrellas. Ukraine Playbook: Kyiv doubled its compute capacity, and that is a big reason Ukraine is still in the fight. Without AI, it would have lost the war. The Gulf is now facing its own confrontation with Iran, and it will need to follow the same playbook. @MiddleEastInst

From day one, Iran’s strategy has been to internationalize the war and its consequences: higher energy and commodity prices, food shortages, and global insecurity for shipping and flights. Proof 👇🏽👇🏽

إنا لله وإنا إليه راجعون. رحم الله الصديق العزيز عبد العزيز غشيان. لا حول ولا قوة إلا بالله، نسأل الله أن يصبر أهله على فراقه.

Earlier in the war, when Iran attacked AI infrastructure, I argued that Tehran understands the value of AI. The Iranians recognized that this infra would shift the broader balance of power in favor of the Gulf states over the long term, apart from its economic value.👇🏽👇🏽

Friends in London: I'm in town from Thursday through the weekend. Hit me up! P.s. I'm giving a book talk at LSE on Thursday morning if you'd like to attend.

Join us if you're in Dubai

Mohammed Soliman, a technology analyst and senior fellow at the @MiddleEastInst , said that the threat of conflict could have an inverse effect, causing countries such as the UAE and Saudi Arabia to increase their AI investments. Mr Soliman said that Ukraine's ability to withstand Russia's invasion for more than four years could largely be attributed to Ukraine's AI investments and innovations. The country has used AI to improve drone strikes, troop logistics and other facets of battle. "Without AI, Ukraine would have lost the war … war is a function of compute," he said. Governments throughout the Middle East, Mr Soliman continued, have taken note of that. "If you’re thinking about how you’re going to be able to sustain against Iranian aggression, you also have to be thinking about compute," he said. He said the recent attacks from Iran would count when it comes to buying decisions, working in favour of the US. "It's been widely reported that China has assisted Iran," Mr Soliman said. He said that the Middle East remains incredibly appealing to the US companies and government as the race for AI dominance heats up. He also said that countries such as the UAE and Saudi Arabia have an abundance of energy, which is a significant AI prerequisite, along with a geographic advantage. "You need a nearby compute hub that's capable of supporting multiple markets," he said. "They're able to make a financial bet on this infrastructure." thenationalnews.com/future/t…