RustyTenMMA

UFC330 - 🟢 MAIN CARD PREDICTIONS 🔶️ ISLAM MACHACHEV Vs IAN GARRY🔶️ Here's the big one. So much discussion on this fight & so many different opinions. So many talking points. So I'm going to analyse this fight differently & take each point separately. 🔹️Leg & oblique kicks🔹️ This is a major point that ppl feel is a factor for Garry. But I think something is being missed. Garry mainly uses his right leg for this & Islam is a southpaw. That's going to make it harder to land these kicks. He can use his front leg for this but I don't think it's as effective & also might open him up for a takedown. 🔹️Durability Ppl still look at Islam's KO in his 2nd UFC Fight by Martins. It looked bad but Islam was being reckless & not following the gameplan. He has improved significantly & has fought much better strikers since. Ppl seem to forget that Garrys chin is also sus. Song Kenan, a mid fighter, almost put Garrys lights out with 1 punch & if he hadn't wrestled immediately after Garry would have a KO loss & may not even be having this fight. Islam also has more power, so it's definitely possible that he KOs Garry instead. 🔹️Cardio Everyone mentions Islam's cardio & that he tires late, ignoring the fact that he was facing significant resistance on the ground, often in 5 rounds, & he was making very draining weight cuts. He still won. Garry's cardio is often talked about, but what about how tired he looked the last round vs Prates who almost finished him? On short notice true, but still I don't think his cardio is as good when he has to grapple. 🔹️Size & range Another huge talking point. Garrys reach advantage is 4". Decent. But how is his height & reach going to help when he is horizontal? In fact it may make it more difficult to clear guard & stand up. Also if he is moving backwards to keep range he will be backing himself up against the cage. 🔹️Striking A lot has been made of how Ian is the superior striker & the best striker Islam has faced. Maybe, but he got dropped by Song, almost finished by Prates & was getting pieced up by Shavkat. He couldn't stand with MVP and had to wrestle. Islam's striking, especially kicks are underrated & he has fought great strikers like Dustin & Volk and won. The threat of TDs makes people drop their hands & become hesitant. Also Garry's lovely fast jab will be harder due to opposite stances. I think Garry's main weapons could be that advacing knee & body kick he kept throwing at Geoff Neal, but I think Islam can hang. 🔹️Takedowns A key point. There's a lot of confidence that Garry will defend the takedowns, but based on what? 2 things, His performance against Shavkat & Islam having close fights with Dustin & Volk. Those are completely different fighters who defend takedowns very differently. Volk was a rugby player, at 215lbs 😲, incredibly strong with a crazy reach for his stocky build. There's a big difference, Shavkat had a knee injury & is not as good a wrestler as Islam. He goes mainly for upper body lock takedowns & trips which with Garrys Judo base is tough. However if you watch closely you'll notice the moment he switched to single leg TDs he got Garry down. And if you've seen the clips of Alexei Pergande training with Garry he gets the single leg TD repeatedly. Islam will also do the same. I'm certain of it. He will likely go for TDs away from the cage to negate Garry's Judo. 🔹️Control & submissions Another key difference is that Volk would not let Islam pin him & settle position during TDs. He would then work to stand. Whereas Garry settles & even closes guard to prevent damage. Good luck with that. Also if he tries to stand he will expose himself for the sub attempt. The pick is Makhachev. Garry does not have the power to keep him away and his southpaw stance will make leg kicks & jab more difficult. He will get the single leg TD, control him, tire him & likely get the finish. 🟢 PICK - ISLAM MACHACHEV 🔴 PROP - MAKHACHEV SUB

This was amazing. I had to watch it twice in slow motion. 🫨🙂

#UFC333 🔴 PRELIM CARD BREAKDOWN 🔷️ CAM ROWSTON Vs ABUS MAGOMEDOV 🟢 PICK - ABUS MAGOMEDOV 🔴 PROP - MAGOMEDOV KO 🔶️ FIGHT BREAKDOWN Rowston has good feints and his striking is usually more effective because of his reach advantage. However here Abus actually has the same reach. While Cam has a nice jab and decent boxing combinations, my issue with his striking is that he is slow, again usually made up for by his reach. He is vulnerable to leg kicks and doesn't really check them. His striking defence also seems suspect with his chin exposed and vulnerable, especially when moving backwards. He has a reasonable wrestling and grappling game, but I feel his actual takedowns are fairly sloppy and again his size allows him to bully people on the ground. However some of his wrestling entries are from too far out and his neck is exposed for front chokes when shooting. On top however he has nasty ground & pound which I feel is the best part of his ground game. I think Abus is far more skilled in striking, wrestling and grappling. His main issue is cardio as he slows down as the fight progresses. The Strickland fight I feel was more of an adrenaline dump but there's no denying that his cardio isn't great. I think that Abus is going to clip Rowston with something and potentially put him out. If that doesn't happen he could win 2 rounds with striking and grappling and survive the 3rd. I think either way Abus wins and I'm fairly confident in this. I'm picking him to push Cam backwards, find a way through his defence, clip him and KO him.

Iasmin Lucindo vs. Nicolle Caliari Iasmin Lucindo At 24 years old (born January 8, 2002), the 5'3" orthodox fighter (66" reach) from Fortaleza, Ceará, Brazil (fights out of Feira de Santana, trains at Academia Fight House) enters with a pro record of 18-6. She has 8 KO/TKOs, 3 submissions, and 7 decisions. UFC record sits at 5-2. Background and path: Started training kickboxing/MMA in her early teens after witnessing domestic violence involving her mother and aunts, seeking self defense tools that evolved into a career. Professional debut in 2017 at 15. Built a 13-4 regional record with multiple early stoppages (mostly punches) across Brazilian promotions, including a Samurai Fight House Women’s Flyweight title (TKO of Beriuzka Canelon). Invited into Fight House after impressing as a sparring partner for Virna Jandiroba, also holds regional belts from Action Fight and Punch Fight. UFC debut loss by unanimous decision to Yazmin Jauregui (August 2022, high volume striking). Rebounded with a unanimous decision over Brogan Walker (flyweight, April 2023), second round arm triangle choke of Polyana Viana (August 2023, Performance of the Night), unanimous decision over Karolina Kowalkiewicz (May 2024), split decision over Marina Rodriguez (October 2024), unanimous decision loss to Amanda Lemos (March 2025), and unanimous decision win over Angela Hill (August 2025). Pulled from a December 2025 booking vs. Gillian Robertson after an out-of-competition positive for mesterolone (September 24, 2025 sample in Brazil), CSAD investigation found low-level exposure consistent with contaminated compounded supplements from a Brazilian pharmacy (not intentional use for advantage), supported by negative tests in August and October 2025, full cooperation, and minimal concentration. Nine month ineligibility retroactive to the sample date (eligible June 24, 2026). Strengths: High output multi-level striking with volume punching (hooks, combinations), body work, and opportunistic spinning attacks/kicks. Strong takedown defense (68% UFC) and ability to reverse or control clinch/fence exchanges into trips or top positions. Functional grappling with submission threat once on top or in transitions (arm-triangle on Viana, control and ground-and-pound vs. Hill). Proven durability and ability to sustain pressure across three rounds against experienced strikers. Solid scramble awareness and ability to force fights into her preferred range. Weaknesses: Can be controlled or limited when opponents dictate grappling range and smother output (clearly stalled by Lemos). Occasional overcommitment on entries or spinning attacks that leave openings. Relies more on volume and pressure than elite precision at pure range. Early regional competition was mixed in quality. The mesterolone finding (even if low-level and non-intentional per CSAD) adds a question mark on recent preparation and the Hill performance that preceded the sample. Micro-dosing is a thing. Nicolle Caliari At 29 years old (born November 4, 1996), the 5'3" orthodox fighter (62" reach) from Curitiba, Paraná, Brazil (based in Florianópolis, trains at Thai Brasil Floripa under Marcio Malko) enters with a pro record of 9-4. She has 5 KO/TKOs and 4 submissions. UFC record sits at 1-2. Background and path: Began karate at age 9 (father’s encouragement for activity/self-defense). Accumulated regional and national titles plus a world title before transitioning into Muay Thai and BJJ (purple belt with state and UAEJJF national pro titles). Nearly finished a law degree before prioritizing fighting. Pro debut 2015 with a first round TKO. Early regional success with multiple TKOs (including LFA 26 finish of Itzel Esquivel), interrupted by a unanimous decision loss to Syuri Kondo (Pancrase) and a third round submission loss to Kay Hansen (Invicta FC 37, Hansen controlled with back takes and top pressure for much of the fight before the mounted guillotine/neck crank). Multiple multi year hiatuses, including one involving depression and near-retirement. Returned under Malko’s guidance (moved from Curitiba), scoring consecutive second round submissions in Fight Music Show (armbar of Carolina Jiménez after weathering pressure and finding the opening late in R2, rear-naked choke of Daniela Antonelli after controlling pace and taking the back). Earned UFC contract via first round armbar of Corinne Laframboise on DWCS 2024 Week 5. UFC debut split decision loss to Ernesta Kareckaite (January 2025), third round body knee TKO loss to Carli Judice (UFC 318, July 2025), then third round arm-triangle choke of Shauna Bannon (May) for first UFC win. Has competed at both flyweight and strawweight. Strengths: Aggressive finishing orientation with functional striking to close distance and strong grappling transitions once inside. Opportunistic submissions from top or scramble positions (armbars, rear-naked chokes, arm-triangles). Ability to reverse pressure and find locks even when initially controlled (visible vs. Jiménez and in DWCS). Solid physicality in clinch and willingness to initiate grappling exchanges. All nine pro wins by finish. Weaknesses: Porous striking defense and high absorption rate (5.59 SApM, 52% defense in UFC). Takedown accuracy is low (29%) and defense is only 50%. Struggles to keep fights standing against volume or technical strikers who manage distance (Judice outstruck her heavily and finished with body work, Kareckaite volume). Limited sustained output at range and can be backed up or timed on entries. Career has featured extended inactivity, has not won a decision at any level. Stylistic Breakdown & Key Matchup Factors Size & physicality: Nearly identical height at natural strawweight. Lucindo holds a clear 4 inch reach advantage (66" vs. 62"). Physical strength and clinch ability appear comparable from available tape, with neither showing a decisive power edge. Striking: Lucindo is the more consistent volume and multi-level threat, with better accuracy (45% vs. 39%), lower absorption (2.80 vs. 5.59 SApM), and demonstrated ability to land combinations while controlling exchanges (visible vs. Kowalkiewicz, Rodriguez, and Hill). She mixes body work and opportunistic power. Caliari has functional power and can land in bursts or close distance, but her defense is leaky and she absorbs clean volume against technical strikers. Lucindo’s range tools and output should dictate if she stays disciplined. Caliari’s path requires forcing pocket or clinch work. Grappling/Wrestling: Caliari is the more dedicated submission threat and has finished multiple fights once securing top or back (Bannon arm-triangle, regional RNC and armbar, DWCS armbar). She initiates takedowns and scrambles effectively. Lucindo’s takedown defense (68%) and ability to reverse or counter grapple (control sequences vs. Hill, top control and submission on Viana) give her the edge in preventing bottom time, the red flag is the Lemos fight. If Lucindo initiates or matches grappling, her experience and defense should limit Caliari’s best weapon. Edge to Lucindo in defensive wrestling and overall grappling management, Caliari remains live for opportunistic finishes and control time if she lands in dominant positions. Pace & cardio: Lucindo has shown the ability to sustain output across full fights against durable opposition with limited fade. Caliari can push early but has been outworked in volume exchanges and finished in later rounds. Lucindo’s higher sustained pace and lower absorption favor her if the fight stays extended. Intangibles Age/experience: Lucindo is five years younger with substantially more Octagon time and recent activity against ranked or veteran opposition. Caliari’s longer career includes significant inactivity and a return from near-retirement. Another age-related note, Lucindo has fought a lot of older WMMA fighters recently, aged 37-40. Doping: Low level mesterolone positive from a September 2025 out of competition sample (after the Hill win), attributed by CSAD to contaminated compounded supplements rather than intentional use. This is supported by surrounding negative tests, minimal concentration, and full cooperation. Ban ended June. Does not automatically invalidate results. Microdosing is a thing, and concentration at the end of a cycle is also a thing. On the same note, contaminated substances from Brazilian factories is ALSO a thing. Finish: Caliari has finished every win in her career and hunts submissions aggressively. Lucindo mixes finishes with decisions and has shown both power and submission ability. Path: Both are Brazilian with grappling bases, but Lucindo’s early self-defense-driven start and Fight House development differ from Caliari’s karate-to-Muay Thai/BJJ path and gym-management background. Stylistic test: Lucindo has navigated volume strikers and grappling pressure in the UFC, Caliari was controlled and finished by Judice’s body work and technical output while struggling to sustain her own grappling threat. Lucindo is no Judice, but she comes with her own TD threat. Wise Prediction Lucindo will use her reach, volume striking, and multi-level tools to control distance, pick at Caliari’s entries, and force her into disadvantageous exchanges. She should stuff or reverse most takedown attempts and keep the majority of the fight standing or in positions where she can land and exit, creating openings for a finish or clear round wins. Caliari will look to close distance aggressively, initiate clinch or takedown sequences, and hunt submissions or top control once inside. She must weather early volume and avoid extended range striking where her defense has been exposed. Lucindo’s superior striking volume, defensive metrics, reach, takedown defense, and deeper UFC experience against similar styles give her the more reliable paths. Caliari’s finishing threat on the ground and willingness to scramble keep her live if she can force messy grappling exchanges or capitalize on any defensive lapse. The doping finding is a variable, but Lucindo’s overall toolkit and recent performances still outweigh Caliari’s limited UFC sample and absorption issues. Picks: 1. Iasmin Lucindo by decision. 38% (MY PICK) - Clearest path. Her volume, reach, accuracy, and 68% takedown defense should let her control range and stuff or reverse most of Caliari’s attempts, banking rounds the way she did against Kowalkiewicz, Rodriguez, and Hill. Caliari has never won a decision at any level. 2. Nicolle Caliari by submission in any round. 22% - Her most realistic route to victory. All nine of her pro wins are finishes, and she has shown the ability to reverse pressure or find locks from top/scramble positions (Bannon arm-triangle, DWCS armbar, regional RNC/armbar). Live if she can close distance early and force grappling before Lucindo’s output settles the fight. 3. Iasmin Lucindo KO/TKO late (R2/R3). 16% - Secondary finishing path. She has power and body work that accumulate, and Caliari’s high absorption rate (5.59 SApM) and porous defense make her hittable in exchanges. Less likely than a decision because Lucindo’s recent UFC wins have mostly gone the distance, but plausible if she mixes levels and Caliari keeps pressing. 4. Iasmin Lucindo by submission late (R2/R3). 9% - Lower probability finish. She has the tools (arm-triangle on Viana, functional top control vs. Hill) and can threaten once she initiates or reverses grappling, but her UFC submission average is low and she more often chooses to control or stand. 5. Nicolle Caliari by decision. 6% - Unlikely. She has zero decision wins on her entire record and has been outworked on the scorecards or finished when she can’t secure a finish. Would require Lucindo to fight uncharacteristically passive while Caliari somehow controls without finishing (similar to Lemos/Lucindo). An outcome that doesn’t match either fighter’s recent tape. Last 9% of occurrences are early stoppages, draw, and any other lower-probability endings. Best bet angle: Primary lean is Lucindo on the moneyline given her edges in volume, reach, defensive wrestling, and experience. Lucindo by decision is the safer method lean if Caliari’s grappling slows the pace. Lucindo by KO/TKO or submission is live as a secondary if she mixes levels effectively. Over 1.5 rounds is reasonable given both fighters’ ability to survive early exchanges, while under 1.5 is the higher-upside play if Lucindo establishes range early or Caliari lands a clean submission. Caliari by submission is the primary underdog angle for value hunters, requiring her to close distance and reverse any bottom time. #UFC333 #VolkanovskiVsEvloev #LucindoVsCaliari #UFC #Strawweight #IasminLucindo #NicolleCaliari