Sponge (@Sol_Sponge) header
Sponge (@Sol_Sponge) profile picture

In search of asymmetric bets

New York, NY
Joined August 2021
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Here’s why the $KOPN base case is $13.50 and bull case $42. AI’s bottleneck isn’t compute — it’s the wires between GPUs (one of many bottlenecks). Copper hit a wall. Silicon photonics is expensive. MicroLED is the dark horse: sub-pJ/bit, no lasers, CMOS-compatible. $90B AI optics TAM by 2030.
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Micron results: I think the biggest take away for me is really simple: Micron made more profit this quarter than NVDA made almost exactly 1 year ago. And next quarter’s guidance is way more than what NVDA made in Q3 of 2025. NVDA did about $35 billion in revenue and $20 billion in profit in q3 2025. Micron will do $50 billion in revenue and $35 billion in profit next quarter. Does everyone see this? Does everyone understand this? NVDAs market cap at the time was $4 trillion. Micron’s current market cap is $1 trillion dollars. Micron is growing faster than NVDA did last year in actual dollars and percentages and it trades at 1/4 the valuation. Math is math. Liars figure, but figures never lie.
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$PENG just became an NVIDIA AI Factory Specialized Partner — an invitation-only designation within the NVIDIA Partner Network recognizing full-stack AI factory design, deployment and operations expertise. This is not a marketing badge. NVIDIA gates this program. The proof points PENG cited to earn it: → Haein AI Factory in Korea (PENG + NVIDIA + SK Telecom) — one of Korea’s largest GPU-as-a-Service sovereign AI clusters → Deepgram enterprise voice AI deployment (PENG + Dell + NVIDIA) Also dropped quietly in the same press release: → PENG won Dell Technologies 2026 Global AI Partner of the Year → Q3 earnings call: July 7 In ~90 days $PENG has: ✅ Named NVIDIA AI Factory Specialized Partner ✅ Named Dell AI Partner of the Year ✅ SKT $200M strategic investment (Haein = the proof of concept) ✅ Stock +20% after Q2 beat + raised guide Analysts still catching up. $7 FY27 EPS at 25x = $175. Clock is ticking.
$PENG Penguin Solutions Becomes an NVIDIA AI Factory Specialized Partner "Joining a select group of NVIDIA Partner Network (NPN) solution providers. Penguin brings proven experience in designing, building, deploying, and operating full-stack, NVIDIA-based AI factory infrastructure for enterprise-scale AI factories that power AI training, inference and agentic AI workloads."
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Turn the printer back on
BREAKING: President Trump says the Trump Administration might buy equity stakes in US AI companies and that he will host a meeting with AI executives as soon as next week, per Reuters.
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My post last month on $KOPN
Here’s why the $KOPN base case is $13.50 and bull case $42. AI’s bottleneck isn’t compute — it’s the wires between GPUs (one of many bottlenecks). Copper hit a wall. Silicon photonics is expensive. MicroLED is the dark horse: sub-pJ/bit, no lasers, CMOS-compatible. $90B AI optics TAM by 2030.
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May has been the most insane month of trading. Taking foot off the gas here. What are we buying next? Still holding: $NOW $PENG $KOPN
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$PENG just doubled its FY26 growth guide mid-year. AI now 60% of revenue. Memory segment +53% YoY. First production CXL KV cache server shipping today. They’re building the missing tier in the AI memory hierarchy. $53 today. Base $95. Bull $185.
AI has a memory problem. $PENG has the solution. And it’s only a matter of time before the price reflects that. Every long AI conversation builds a “KV cache” inside the GPU. Long docs, agent tasks, big context windows — the cache overflows fast. When it overflows, GPUs recompute, stall, or refuse the request. That’s why inference is so expensive.🧵
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ServiceNow just raised AI guidance. AI/Now Assist grew by +130% YoY last quarter, with deals including 3+ Now products increasing by 70%. New Guidance: $1.5B (raised +50%) $NOW
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It’s been a very very good week. Need to keep our head on straight here. Keeping it simple and sticking to the two plays I feel most confident in - $PENG $NOW Happy Memorial Day
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What do we think will happen with $NVDA earnings?
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All roads lead to $PENG
$PENG just announced the current president of network infrastructure at $NOK and former CEO of $INFN (before NOK bought them) has joined the board.
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Nice write up on $PENG
$PENG has a fairly convincing path to get to $2.5B in sales in 2028…at a reasonable 5x multiple that would be a $12.5B market cap vs. $2B today. The mistake is not anyone counting on “photonic memory”, the mistake is pricing $PENG as a systems integrator when it is really an “anti-hyperscaler” as Manuel Walz (Garp Investing substack) so aptly put it in what I believe is one of the best pieces on $PENG to be published. As he so eloquently explains, the company “builds the sovereign, on-prem AI factory that enterprises, governments, and telco operators can’t obtain from AWS, Azure, or GCP”. He goes on to superbly address their software moat (ICE ClusterWare abs MemoryAI) already being deployed at production scale in Korea w/ $SKM who is an investor and sits on the BOD along w/ the Chairwoman of $LITE and CTO of $AMD. He then rightly talks about how the $NBIS acquisition of Eigen AI validates the inference optimization layer at the “highest value layer of the AI stack”. And then how the $NVDA/$NOK $1B partnership creates a “distributed edge inferencing market worth > $200B by 2030 rhat $PENG is UNIQUELY positioned to serve.” $SKM is embedding $PENG in their rollout of its national AI -native strategy and has preferred convertible into shares at $33 purchased 2 years ago way before the big memory bottleneck was appreciated and $PENG was not one of or perhaps the only company with a production ready CXL-based KV Cache server to unlock the memory wall. This is critical with inference workloads being bound predominantly by memory (70%) and only 30% by compute. This technology didnt appear out of nowhere, it builds on $PENG’s 30-year Smart Modular Technology heritage and…the strategic deal they inked with SK Hynix in Jan of 2025 giving $PENG access to cutting edge DRAM packaging the the competition cannot replicate. There is a lot more in Manuel’s piece on Substack, and I think his stuff is highly underrated as he is an extremely insightful writer. I also want to acknowledge @Temple_Eight for being early to write up this name and put it in front of me as an idea requiring serious consideration as a core portfolio position. I will be very surprised if within 12-18 months this isnt a 10-figure marker cap, which implies a 5-6x from Friday’s close. @ThematicTrader or @BryzonX feel free to chime in here if you have anything to add! NFA. Good luck and happy trading.
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Internalize this post
Us in 2030 because we bought $NOW at $90
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Did we just get edged by Situational Awareness LP 13F?
Wait till we find out tomorrow this guy bought $PENG 🐧
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Have significant positions in $NOW and $PENG I love the 🐧 long term but feel much more confident in $NOW for the short term
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Wait till we find out tomorrow this guy bought $PENG 🐧
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