20 | ✝️ | Central Alabama Weather | National Wx: @weathertrackus
Alabama
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We've got a good bit of clearing between the morning round of storms and the cold front.
This should allow instability to rise, and perhaps make up for the weak low-level shear, supporting some stronger updrafts.
Storm mergers will be crucial for torgen this afternoon.
Looks like today will be a rain 'bust' across the Birmingham metro.
While unfortunate, Wednesday looks to offer much better rain chances and totals, with multiple rounds likely, including the potential for a few strong storms.
First run of the HRRR, so lots of changes are likely, but this is a legitimate scenario for Mon.
Weak, narrow updrafts developing along or just ahead of a diffuse CF, not able to get organized due to weak instability, despite very favorable kinematics.
The RAP has a pretty robust look for severe weather, on a synoptic level for Monday.
Strong, very dynamic trough, coupled with broad subtropical flow, with strong low-level response and a rich broad warm sector; generally a textbook setup for an organized severe weather episode.
However, like much of the other guidance, widespread clouds and rain could suppress daytime heating, resulting in marginal thermodynamics, supporting a lower-end severe/tornado threat.
Although, a few severe storms & tornadoes may still be possible along the cold front given stronger forcing and cooling aloft.
Indeed early elevated storms did produce very large hail earlier this afternoon...
Pretty self explanatory...
There really isn't much to question here. It's been long overdue for updates to the SPC's outlooks. In fact, the SPC began doing afternoon updates in 2024, and it's been a huge success.
I don't see why this would be any different.
Wind profiles will undoubtedtly be supportive for SigTors this afternoon, the main question lies in thermos.
Will moisture arrive in time before storms grow upscale?
I think initially storms will be elevated, with primarily a hail risk, before the tornado threat ramps up...
A few strong-severe storms can't entirely be ruled out across the state on Sunday or Monday, with some instability, and a strong storm system moving in.
Specific details are unavailable, and lots of uncertainty exists, but I wouldn't rule out a marginal severe event next week.
Upper-70s expected this weekend and into early next week, with rain returning on Sun/Mon, and again on Thu. Some isolated areas in Central AL could briefly touch 80 between Fri & Mon.
Temperatures return to seasonal averages late next week, with 60s for highs.
Most locations will be in the upper-70s early next week, but a couple of areas could briefly reach 80 at peak heating. It's possible that a lot of the guidance is still running a bit too warm right now for many locations.
Mild days and cool nights will continue for the rest of the week, with a warming trend next week, with clouds and rain back in the forecast, as early as ~Nov 1.
Upper 70s and isolated 80 degree spots likely first week of Nov, before cool temps return the following week.
