Stephen Storey retweeted
>be Lula
>get convicted of corruption
>get sentenced to 12 years
>get released by the STF on procedural errors
>never actually acquitted lmao
>beat Jair Bolsonaro in 2022
>Jair gets thrown into jail over an alleged coup attempt
>Congress votes to cut his sentence
>Lula vetoes it
>four years later, face his son
>during a debate, threaten to also lock him up if he loses the election
>election day
>former private lawyer, now STF judge, extends voting by 2 hours nationwide
>request came from Lula's own coalition
>win by 4 million votes in a runoff with no paper trail
>next day, Moraes orders the losing candidate to surrender his passports
>victory speech: "we're going to regulate social media"
>"democracy" lmao
>RIP Brazil
“The poor don’t eat stocks” that’s what they like to say when you bring these kinds of things up in Brazil.
Stephen Storey retweeted
JUST IN: 🇧🇷 Over $200,000,000,000 wiped out from the Brazil stock market at open after Lula da Silva wins Brazil's presidential election, defeating Flávio Bolsonaro.
I called this election in March bro
You gotta get up to the northeast more often. You’d have known it was going to be Lula
Brazil votes today, and I'm putting my final number on the record.
Flávio Bolsonaro 51.5%.
Lula 48.5%.
I ran today's vote 1,000,000 times using the final polls from 20 pollsters.
Flávio wins 81% of them.
On Friday, my call was 51.6% to 48.4%, also at 81%.
Two more days of polls moved it by one tenth of a point.
On Friday I made a second call, that the final poll from the pollster founded in 1983 would show Flávio between 50% and 52%.
It came in at 51%.
The polls themselves show a near tie, with 17 of the 20 pollsters putting Flávio ahead.
My model gives him more room because Brazil's leading polls underestimated the right in each of the last three first rounds.
This year they missed Flávio's first-round margin by 4.1 points.
The model assumes a third of that miss happens again.
If the polls are exactly right this time, Flávio's chance drops to 68%.
Lula wins if the result lands more than 1.7 points to his side of the polls, which happens about one time in five.
Betting markets ended up in the same place, near 80%.
Polls close at 5 p.m. Brasília time, and the count starts right after.
How the model works, and what Monday morning costs either way, is in my analysis below.
FAZ O L
Índice de Brasil negociado na @HyperliquidX. Desastre total.
Amanhã será um dia muito feio nos mercados.
Preparem-se que serão anos difíceis.
