Research, conviction & capital as catalyst. Σ DeFi-native yield fund.
Joined October 2021
- Tweets1.2K
- Following77
- Followers2.2K
- Likes1.1K
Where it sits today: @aave V4 holds $1.15B across seven hubs, led by Ethereum ($542M) and Circle's Arc ($290M), with $442M borrowed.
xitter.cf/Sumcap/status/21052435…
A loyalty push makes sense: @RedotPay is still the biggest crypto card ($403M of spend in September), but its share halved in a year, from 69% to 34%.
xitter.cf/Sumcap/status/21122153…
A revival needs new users, and they're slowing: 284 joined on Oct 22, down from 834 on Oct 19 and 8,663 on launch day.
xitter.cf/Sumcap/status/21114575…
Papertrade's LP started at $0 and hit its $5M cap in 65 minutes.
In its first 7 days, @papertrade_xyz traded $1.25T and traders lost $56M net. The LP has stayed close to its cap since, and $51.2M has already been paid to $PAPER stakers.
That cap doubles to $10M today (18:45 UTC), so the LP will keep up to $10M before paying excess to stakers.
The launch rush also front-loaded the token. Two thirds of the 8.46B $PAPER supply was minted in the first 24 hours, when minting cost far less than it does today.
Trading has held up after most launch deposits left. But with 94% of volume from the top 10% of wallets, it's hard to say how much of it will last.
Mechanically, the Martingaler LP has performed as intended. The real test comes once $PAPER is transferable.
ALT Papertrade's first week at a glance, after 7 days of trading, 10 Oct to 17 Oct 2026. Traders: $1.25T traded, 1,166,085 positions opened, 16,126 wallets traded, 21,660 deposited, TVL $67.5M (peak $137.9M). Traders lost $56M net to the LP, which held a median $4.96M at its $5M cap. Above the cap, $51.2M was paid out to $PAPER stakers. 8.46B $PAPER minted, 99.3% staked.
Still climbing: $5.0M of USDC borrowed against $11.0M of stocks now, 45% of collateral, with the hub's USDC 80% lent out.
xitter.cf/Sumcap/status/21052435…
On spend it's Karta (the ConKarta card): $53.5M in the last 30 days, the biggest card not on your page. Only RedotPay, EtherFi and KAST did more.
xitter.cf/Sumcap/status/21122153…
For scale, crypto-native carry still leads on @aave V4: weETH is the biggest deposit on its Ethereum hub at $135M, and WETH there is 91% lent out at 2.2%.
xitter.cf/Sumcap/status/21052435…
The data shows both: card spend tripled to $1.3B a month, while RedotPay's share halved from 69% to 34%.
xitter.cf/Sumcap/status/21122153…
Supply matters for ethereum:0x57e114b691db790c35207b2e685d4a43181e6061 holders too: @ethena's buybacks start once USDe reaches $7.5B, about 60% above where it is today.
xitter.cf/Sumcap/status/21031034…
For scale: Aave V4's tokenized-stock hub on Base has lent $5.0M so far, about 0.02% of Robinhood's $21.6B book.
xitter.cf/Sumcap/status/21052435…
Those loops all borrow from one pool: Aave's stock hub has $1.2M of USDC left to lend, with 80% of its $6.2M already out.
xitter.cf/Sumcap/status/21052435…
Payouts did bounce on Oct 22, to $1.07M as traders lost $2.4M, but daily volume fell again, to $10.3B from $52.9B on Oct 19.
xitter.cf/Sumcap/status/21114575…
Papertrade's LP started at $0 and hit its $5M cap in 65 minutes.
In its first 7 days, @papertrade_xyz traded $1.25T and traders lost $56M net. The LP has stayed close to its cap since, and $51.2M has already been paid to $PAPER stakers.
That cap doubles to $10M today (18:45 UTC), so the LP will keep up to $10M before paying excess to stakers.
The launch rush also front-loaded the token. Two thirds of the 8.46B $PAPER supply was minted in the first 24 hours, when minting cost far less than it does today.
Trading has held up after most launch deposits left. But with 94% of volume from the top 10% of wallets, it's hard to say how much of it will last.
Mechanically, the Martingaler LP has performed as intended. The real test comes once $PAPER is transferable.
ALT Papertrade's first week at a glance, after 7 days of trading, 10 Oct to 17 Oct 2026. Traders: $1.25T traded, 1,166,085 positions opened, 16,126 wallets traded, 21,660 deposited, TVL $67.5M (peak $137.9M). Traders lost $56M net to the LP, which held a median $4.96M at its $5M cap. Above the cap, $51.2M was paid out to $PAPER stakers. 8.46B $PAPER minted, 99.3% staked.
Four weeks in, the Aave V4 hub already holds $11.0M of tokenized stocks, with $5.0M of USDC borrowed against them.
xitter.cf/Sumcap/status/21052435…
A year ago only three of them cleared that bar: RedotPay, EtherFi and KAST.
xitter.cf/Sumcap/status/21122153…
Those loops need $USDC, and it's getting tight: 81% of the stock hub's $6.1M $USDC is already borrowed.
xitter.cf/Sumcap/status/21052435…
Circle is already there: V4 on Arc holds $288M of the $1.13B across all hubs, second only to Ethereum's main hub.
xitter.cf/Sumcap/status/21052435…
Google $GOOGL ($3.6M) and Nvidia $NVDA ($3.0M) are over half of the $11.0M in stock collateral behind those loans.
xitter.cf/Sumcap/status/21052435…
And from a standing start: @Plasma One's first card spend was in January, and September came in at $26M.
xitter.cf/Sumcap/status/21122153…
On the buyback: @ethena's fee switch starts once USDe supply hits $7.5B. Supply is about $4.7B today, so it needs to grow about 60% first.
xitter.cf/Sumcap/status/21031034…