[venture capital, start-up lending, private equity]
NC
Joined February 2013
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michael clayton retweeted
Nah markets are trolling now… $ESMT ($2.3B MC) memory earnings + investor conference:
- Revenue: $679.4M
- Gross profit: $526.2M (77.44% margin)
- Operating profit: $403.4M (59.37% margin)
Annualized Q3 would be $1.61B operating profit.
They’re also sitting on $757M net cash + $278M in inventory…
So you only need ~3.5x more quarters until they exceed their marketcap in assets.
- Economic Daily also reported that management does not expect a meaningful increase in DDR2/DDR3 supply in 2027 and believes prices can be maintained
So yes, I think markets are trolling now with selling off a 1.59x p/e (annualized) company.
Since further price hikes are expected Q4z
michael clayton retweeted
bullish on reciprocating engines for BTM compute.
large turbines are optimized for centralized power generation, but reciprocating engines excel at modular BTM deployments, w/ shorter lead times and capacity that scales w/ GPUs.
BTM bypasses parts of the grid queue, not air permitting.
gas access and a viable permitting path can be worth more than proximity to the grid.
michael clayton retweeted
BREAKING: Apollo is launching European Credit Company, an $11.2 billion private credit platform.
The platform will lend to companies and finance assets across corporate, asset-backed, infrastructure and real estate markets.
Its backers include the Abu Dhabi Investment Council, marking a further push by Apollo into Abu Dhabi's huge wealth pool.
michael clayton retweeted
*ORACLE KICKS OFF SIX-PART US DOLLAR HIGH-GRADE BOND OFFERING
Here are the IPTs:
3Y: T+260bps
3Y FRN: SOFR equiv
5Y: T+295
7Y: T+325
10Y: T+330
20Y: T+355
For context, BBG HY index spreads at 340bps. But this is IG-rated (Baa2/BBB-/BBB) credit.
$ORCL
michael clayton retweeted
Impressive 😍
This is not normal what is happening in Texas right now, $500B+ in the project pipeline……..
The Texas Mega-Project Pipeline ($500+ Billion)
$100B+ – OpenAI / SoftBank / Oracle "Project Stargate" AI Infrastructure Hub (Planned / Under Construction, Abilene & West TX)
$44B – Samsung Advanced Semiconductor Fab Complex (Under Construction, Taylor)
$40B – Texas Instruments Semiconductor Mega-Site (Under Construction, Sherman)
$40B – Google Data Center & Energy Infrastructure Buildout (Planned / Under Construction, Multi-Site)
$18B – Port Arthur LNG Export Terminal – Phase 1 & 2 (Under Construction, Port Arthur)
$17B – Texas Central High-Speed Rail Project (Planned, Dallas to Houston)
$15B – NextDecade Rio Grande LNG Terminal (Under Construction, Brownsville)
$13B – Energy Transfer Pipeline & Natural Gas Grid Expansion (Under Construction / Planned, Permian-to-Gulf Coast)
$12B – Golden Pass LNG Terminal (Under Construction, Sabine Pass)
$11.6B – Crusoe / Oracle AI Data Center Campus (Under Construction, Abilene)
$10B+ – Meta Hyperion-Scale AI Data Center (Under Construction, El Paso)
$10B – Tesla Gigafactory & Cybercab / Robotaxi Production Expansion (Under Construction, Austin)
$7B – TxDOT I-45 North Houston Highway Improvement Project (Under Construction, Houston)
$6B – Pacifico Energy "GW Ranch" Gas & Solar Energy Center for AI (Planned, Pecos County)
$5B – Enterprise Products Partners Offshore Crude Export Terminal (SPOT) (Planned, Brazoria County)
$4B – Micron Technology R&D & Packaging Expansion (Planned, Central TX)
$3.2B – NRG Energy Dedicated Data Center Power Generation Facilities (Planned, Multi-site)
$3B – Cheniere Corpus Christi LNG Stage 3 Expansion (Under Construction, Corpus Christi)
$2.5B – Microsoft AI Data Center Campus (Under Construction, Pecos / Castroville)
michael clayton retweeted
You have to eat your own cooking — I put my own capital into this business because I trust what we're building. $APLD
Applied Digital $APLD insiders just bought stock for the first time since May 2023.
President Jason Zhang: 300,000 shares, $5.66 million.
CEO Wes Cummins: 55,803 shares, $1.01 million.
The stock is at a one-year low.
michael clayton retweeted
I swear I don’t know I’m doing the fist pump thing. What a thrill calling Sovereignty. He’s an absolute beast!
Then its like aight cool we didnt agree that $meta is out past their skis per se but ok word lets agree they too are gonna need a broader variety of buyers for their expenditure debt ok but now youve thrown a lifeline to tier 2 private capital *not beholden to pension/endowment*
Its a mistake to just dead all further analysis at "albatross scale debt obligations" because seemingly sketchy debt note paper can still be extremely valuable and desirable so youd be saying what that there wouldnt be demand from boutique private credit lining up to finance it?
I mean yeah were i given the opportunity to run it back i obviously would have set up the failsafes man what do you mean i watched it candle by candle til i had to plug in the charger for 2 sec and thats when it went from 3.7k% up to zero but look at least we misallocated anyway
Yessir big pimpin we got you all set up i ran it up the chain to my boss's boss and then our numbers shop guy downstairs ran it thru his modeling its gonna be bout 4.25 and a hike cycle bias lol then bond whales are like oh haha sorry not me i was lookin for a more yieldy coupon
No yeah so what had kinda happened was that i prolly clicked on that other other timeframe accidentally but either way thats my bad for not noticing that todays viral cartoon animal internet joke template coin is in free fall now after it already hit the high note on the charts
Even if you have one of the triple q hero companies dead to rights on burdensome discrepancies and headwinds in their prospectus wouldnt you want your base case to play out so you can short it into the center of the earth rather than basking in the i told you so/i called it zone
michael clayton retweeted
Glad Brandon could fit @Lane_Kiffin in his busy schedule
$avgo was like yeah so real quick just go ahead and refer to the part that announces us as anthropics custom chip partner lol but thats where we are now because its not enough to just be a great company with great books you gotta forward guide to debt resistant upside somehow
Call it competition for investment dollars or whatever but next quarters narrative workshop starts the clock basically as soon as the beats and raises leak and you gotta be strongarming the comms with heavy specifics like $mrvl otherwise youre not movin the needle with intention
michael clayton retweeted
Jay-Z is headlining the Super Bowl halftime show! 🚨
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