Bitcoin treasury analysis: Strive, Strategy, Smarter Web Advanced Modeling Front-running the Bitcoin standard Every number sourced from official documents
Joined March 2026
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I tried something new: a relaxed breakdown of Strive's weekly 8-K, with the treasury drawn as poker chips. Episode 1 of Monday Filing Club is up. I probably rambled, but I enjoyed making it. Honest feedback welcome.
youtu.be/1yPaSLRdCBA
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Stupid decision from MSCI.
But don't panic. Strategy never needed them.
Honestly I feel most sorry for people who dont get exposure on the MSCI index to $MSTR.
If it was me and I was buying an index I would want as much diversity as possible.
Oh well more for us I guess...
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So far it's business as usual and exactly what I have been talking about on this channel.
$ASST still the highest Bitcoin beta company you can own. Absolutely crushing it!
$MSTR still slow and steady behaving like a reliable blue Chip stock with $STRC trading like a stable coin
$SWC showing strength continuing on its path as the UKs largest, most amplified and most importantly well ran Bitcoin treasury company.
Smarter Web are the only UK company with prefs out and one of the only pref issuing BTCTCs in the world
(No other UK company is even close)
$MTPFL Metaplanet continue to stink up the place, expect this under performance to continue as mentioned before on this channel
In summery so far everything is behaving as expected and we are still at generational accumulation prices.
Donate a kidney, sell your wedding ring, get your self more amplified Bitcoin or get left behind, there are only a few good Bitcoin treasury companies that will get the Lions share of the gains.
Only well run companies, that continuously increase BTC/share and maintain decent amounts of amplication will get the exceptional gains and that's only a couple companies before you get extremely far down the risk and liquidity curve
DONT FUCK THIS UP
Pick a few solid companies and wait it's that easy...
Bullish $ASST $MSTR $SWC
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Being a perma bull on $BTC has always worked out every single time throughout all of Bitcoins history.
I'm bored to death but I know how quickly everything will change.
Touch grass and let Bitcoin do it's thing!
The max pain is to the downside 🤡
The crash is only getting started 🤡
If that's the case, why is the upside liquidity 10x bigger than the downside one?
Crash is definitely coming, but only in bears portfolio.
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The signs are there, we just have to look for them
This is the type of whale $BTC buys you see before a huge, aggressive reverse pump to the new highs
Patience.
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DONT FUCK THIS UP
I don't know who needs to hear this but be patient the gains are coming. You will look back at this and it will seem so obvious what comes next!
💥 BREAKING: Bitcoin shorts have officially reached the higest levels since the bear market bottom.
Back then, it triggered a MASSIVE $20K+ short squeeze.
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New in Strive's Q3 10-Q, not in its 10-K, Q1 or Q2: it is evaluating banking, brokerage, DeFi, reinsurance, structured ABS and tokenization. My take: the potential of these six is massive. Which one would you build first? $ASST
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Don't get shaken out. MASSIVE gains await us!
Smart money's buying!
$BTC
This is actually insane.
Whales are accumulating at record levels while retail traders continue to short the lows.
The divergence in positioning is now even larger than it was during the bottoming range.
Looks like retail is falling for a massive bear trap while larger players are quietly buying up every dip they get.
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When it comes to dividend cover there is no one even close to Strategy
3.4 Years is full coverage without selling one Bitcoin and without using them common ATM!
3.4 years of coverage at any given moment...
If this balance sheet fails Bitcoin has failed
What a juggernaut $MSTR has become
Our USD Assets cover 3.4 years of annual interest and dividends, up from 0.5 years at the end of May. $MSTR $STRC
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Imagine thinking that metaplanet even have a chance lol...
There is no race, once strive gets into 2nd place it will be permanently glued there.
Bookmark it
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This is an awesome idea, I know Ledn has done an ABS with Bitcoin so the concept is there.
Strive could take it so much further then they have with much larger size, volume and different products
(probably world firsts in some cases)
I love this deep analysis, there are so many options that Strive have it's going to be super interesting to see what they do.
Honestly it feels like the possibilities are endless with this company.
$ASST
There's a line in the $ASST Q3 earnings that nobody is talking about, and it's yet another way to get an investment grade rating. For them and $MSTR actually, and fairly quickly.
"As part of its overall investment strategy, the Company is evaluating various opportunities to leverage its balance sheet, including banking, brokerage, decentralized finance, reinsurance, structured ABS" etc.
Now, I'm going to create my own hypothetical company that looks almost exactly like Strive, let's call it Aardvark Inc. and team up with my fellow treasury giant Bardvark Inc. and build a Structured ABS that gets an institutional grade credit rating.
If I'm close, @ColeMacro is going to send me a hat. He didn't agree to my terms, but I'm sure he would if I bothered to ask him. A gentleman's agreement HUZZAH!
Anyhow, I am now the CEO of Aardvark Inc, and alongside Bardvark Inc, we are creating an Asset Backed Security (ABS) to tap the institutional credit markets for $500 million at 7% while our Bitcoin stays 100% unencumbered in our corporate vaults.
Step 1
Aardvark and Bardvark each issue $500 million of preferred equity paying 12% ($1 billion total). We hire a Wall Street investment bank and drop the combined $1 billion preferred pool into their warehouse line.
Step 2
The bank moves that $1 billion of preferred equity into a legally isolated, bankruptcy remote Special Purpose Vehicle (SPV). The SPV issues $500 million in 5 year Senior Notes (the piece we want priced at 7%), backed by $500 million of junior mezzanine and equity tranches below it (placed across high yield credit / reinsurance buyers and a minority residual slice we retain so GAAP doesn't consolidate the debt back onto our balance sheets).
Step 3
The SPV collects 12% ($120M/year) from Aardvark and Bardvark, while only paying 7% ($35M/year) to the Senior buyers. That massive 5% excess spread ($85M/year) gets trapped inside the SPV’s sinking fund to collateralize the Senior debt in hard cash. Plus, we put a $120 million reserve directly inside the SPV at closing, which pre funds ~3.4 years of Senior interest payments from Day 1.
Step 4
The credit agencies look at the structure. Because we pooled Aardvark and Bardvark together (plus a reinsurance wrap on the mezzanine slice), we broke the single issuer correlation cap. They see a 3.4 year cash buffer inside the SPV, a 50% first loss cushion, and $85 million a year of excess spread compounding in T-bills.
Over 5 years, that trapped spread ($425M) + T-bill reinvestment yield (~$55M) + the $120M reserve equals $600 million in pure cash, meaning the $500 million Senior principal is 100% defeased in cash by maturity without ever having to sell the perpetual preferreds. They stamp the $500 million Senior tranche Investment Grade, and the bank easily sells it to pension funds who legally can't touch crypto or unrated preferreds, but are desperate for a safe 7%.
Step 5
The bank takes their 1% fee and steps away. Here is the kicker, because we hold the residual call option in the Equity Tranche of the SPV, once that trapped excess spread pays off the $500 million Senior pension debt at Year 5, we collapse the SPV, reclaim our preferred shares and the leftover cash reserve, and collapse our effective cost of capital, all while bringing hundreds of millions of traditional finance fixed income cash into our ecosystem.
The cool thing is, we could probably get this to the market pretty quickly, especially if we've already started thinking about it enough to put "structured ABS" and "reinsurance" right there in Q3 earnings.
So what do you think @ColeMacro? Does Aardvark inc. get a credit rating? Do I get a hat? Maybe at least a huzzah?
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Coinbase has become a fully legit federally backed custodian of crypto and exchange.
They are not actually a bank that can take deposits and makes loans like Chase Bank for example.
That will be Strategys job!
Strategy will become the worlds first Bitcoin bank.
Bullish for the whole ecosystem
$BTC
$MSTR
BREAKING: 🇺🇸 COINBASE JUST RECEIVED FULL FEDERAL APPROVAL TO OPERATE AS A NATIONAL TRUST BANK
THE BIGGEST US EXCHANGE IS NOW A REGULATED BANK
WALL STREET IS COMING FOR #BITCOIN
THIS IS MASSIVE 🚀
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This is your daily reminder. Do not get shaken out this volitility is what you signed up for.
More importantly the boredom of going side ways forever is even worse then the crashes.
It's designed this way on purpose, don't loose interest, don't sell your bag, wait and you will be rewarded.
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Short dollar, Long Bitcoin. The thesis is correct, give it time to play out.
The rally that retires your bloodline is already in motion.
$BTC $MSTR $ASST
BREAKING: US M2 money supply jumped +$113 billion in August, to a record $23.41 trillion.
YoY, M2 grew +5.7%, its largest YoY increase since May 2022.
This also marks the 3rd consecutive month of accelerating growth.
So far in 2026, M2 has risen by an average of +$136 billion per month.
This is 89% above the average monthly growth of +$72 billion recorded throughout 2025.
US money creation is gaining momentum.
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