Teblez Fisseha

SUDAN ― As the UAE-Ethiopia joint proxy operation in Sudan edges toward collapse amid mounting battlefield defeats for their RSF proxies, Ethiopian leaders appear to be contemplating direct military confrontation with Sudan. The apparent strategy is to manufacture a “self-defense” pretext for intervention, forcing the Sudanese Armed Forces to divert resources to another front, giving the RSF breathing room to recover lost territory, and allowing Ethiopia to exploit the resulting chaos to consolidate control over the disputed al-Fashaga region. To set this plan in motion, Ethiopia has facilitated dozens of drone attacks originating from its territory, targeting Sudanese civilian infrastructure, particularly power plants and energy facilities. The problem for Abiy Ahmed is that Sudan has refused to take the bait. Rather than retaliating with devastating strikes against Ethiopia’s own energy infrastructure and providing Addis Ababa with the justification it seeks for a wider war, Khartoum has taken the matter to the UN Security Council, framing the attacks as a direct violation of Sudanese sovereignty. However, Sudan cannot indefinitely watch its infrastructure being systematically destroyed by Abiy Ahmed, Ethiopia’s self-styled “War Laureate.” Restraint does not mean helplessness, and there is more than one way to skin a cat. With armed resistance spreading across multiple Ethiopian regions and communities, one possible response for Sudan, for now, would be to ensure that these opposition forces receive the support necessary to sustain pressure on Abiy’s regime. Keeping the regime consumed by internal crises would make it considerably more difficult to pursue military adventures beyond its borders. While doing so, Sudan should continue coordinating closely with its steadfast regional allies to strategically weaken Abiy Ahmed’s regime.