Managing Partner, LumaSenti. Entrepreneur, co-inventor/co-author of the book “The Decision Model”.
North Carolina, USA
Joined March 2009
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Our SpaceX Q3 forecast thread again, actuals now in bold.
SpaceX reports Q3 on Tuesday, so here's our forecast going in. SI is the big swing line, and our Base has it more than doubling from Q2.
Actual: SI $𝟳.𝟱𝟲𝗕, near triple Q2. Revenue $𝟭𝟰.𝟲𝗕 vs our $12.4B Base.
Here's last quarter's guidance against our model. We'll be back Tuesday with actuals on every line, and I'll go live between the release and the call.
Actual: December ARR ~$𝟭𝟬𝟬𝗕 reiterated. Compute at YE 2026 raised to 𝟮.𝟱 𝘁𝗼 𝟯 𝗚𝗪, and 2027 to ~𝟭𝟯 𝗚𝗪.
7/ Elon also put out an ambition of $500 billion to $1 trillion in ARR by the end of 2027, and Starship Flight 15 next month will try to catch both the booster and the ship. The stock was up about 4 to 5% after hours. You can watch the replay here: xitter.cf/SpaceX/status/21125596…
Watch live as SpaceX discusses our Q3 2026 earnings at 3:30pm CT today → xitter.cf/i/broadcasts/1PKqrNbLZ…
5/ The biggest change may be in the cash. Operating cash flow was about $9.6 billion in the quarter, and EBITDA is running at roughly $35 billion a year. Free cash flow was about -$10.0 billion after $19.6 billion of capex, much better than our -$13.2 billion Base, with $89.9 billion of cash and securities on hand. Q4 capex is guided higher, to $35 to $40 billion, but at this level of profitability SpaceX funds much more of its own buildout, which significantly reduces the need for outside financing.
6/ Then the call raised the bar. They said December ARR of about $100 billion is on track and guided Q1 2027 revenue to $33 to $37 billion. Q4 capex is $35 to $40 billion. Compute should reach 2.5 to 3 GW by year end and about 13 GW by the end of 2027, and new compute deals are pricing a bit above $30 to $50 per watt with payback in under a year.
2/ Earnings surprised even more. Diluted EPS was $0.35, against our Low of -$0.06, Base of $0.09 and High of $0.22, with consensus at $0.13. If you take out about $1.4 billion of other income and a tax benefit, it's still roughly $0.24, above our High. Adjusted EBITDA was $8.8 billion at a 60% margin, versus our Base of $5.6 billion and High of $6.9 billion.
Elon gifting American children $26 Billion. And no middlemen. And Elon says it's just the beginning...
Larry Goldberg retweeted
🚨 This could be a BIG one!
Join us LIVE as we break down SpaceX Q3 earnings, the latest numbers, key updates, and what it all could mean for $SPCX investors.
Tuesday, Oct 20
12:30 pm PT | 2:30 pm CT | 3:30 pm ET
LIVE on X & YouTube
We’ve got an incredible lineup of $SPCX experts joining us:
@esherifftv
@TeslaLarry
@CernBasher
@pbeisel
@nextbigfuture
@JoeTegtmeyer
and MORE!
Set your reminder. And join us LIVE!
You do NOT want to miss this one.
Larry Goldberg retweeted
Here is your pregame show. Who better to tee it up than @TeslaLarry Goldberg.
Also, Elon $26B gift.
Beautifully spoken
I’ve spent a few days thinking about the Tesla Roadster reveal and landed somewhere I haven’t seen much discussion. I’m neither a Tesla fanboy nor a Tesla hater. And I couldn’t care less whether what we saw technically qualifies as a flying car. Three takeaways: (1) The risk of that live demonstration going horribly wrong was real. Almost no CEO would willingly expose their company to that kind of public humiliation for a product with so little financial upside. Elon did. (2) That willingness to attempt the seemingly impossible is what makes Tesla special. It’s also arguably Elon’s greatest contribution to America. He’s helped bring back something we’ve lost. The American spirit of chasing big scary ideas that most people think are impossible. That mindset is spreading across a new generation of founders and its long term impact on America’s future could dwarf anything Tesla ever sells. I think this is deeply underappreciated. (3) Can we just acknowledge how insanely cool that moment was? We’ve reached a strange place culturally where even extraordinary feats of human ingenuity immediately become arguments about why they don’t count. Not everything needs to be a debate. Sometimes we should just be able to stand back together and marvel at what humans are capable of. I’ve been both bullish and critical of Tesla’s ambitions over the years. But watching Elon and his team push the boundaries of what’s possible reminds me why I’m glad we have him. Whether the Roadster ever makes Tesla a dollar or impacts $TSLA stock price is almost beside the point. We need more people willing to risk failure in pursuit of things the rest of us think are impossible. Because when they succeed we all win.
If SpaceX and Tesla ever combine, I believe the only fair way to do it is a true Merger of Equals, and I think both sets of shareholders would come out far ahead. Here is my case in brief.
An MoE at the market ratio, with no premium, gives Tesla and SpaceX holders equal economics in the combined company.
I believe both stocks are significantly undervalued. A Tesla share at about $360, exchanged for SpaceX stock I value at about 2.4 times its current price, is functionally worth about $864.
The result would be one company with one board, run by product groups the way each is run today, with the Tesla and SpaceX brands living on.
Elon keeps unassailable voting control through SpaceX's two-tier structure, where he already holds over 70% of the votes.
Special committees, fairness opinions, majority-of-the-minority votes, and US, EU and China reviews make the deal fair and defensible, and Boeing's long record in China answers the Shanghai worry.
My personal expectation is that early next year is the most likely timing.
The full article is here: xitter.cf/TeslaLarry/article/211…
I hold positions in Tesla and SpaceX. Not investment advice.
