x-Apple / x-Rivian (tech team founder) Disruption happens. Optimism ahead. 🚀🇺🇸 Starlink https://xitter.cf/t.co/XczBaeai1C
Silicon Valley
Joined January 2008
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"Keep your eye out for the people who've created nothing and risked nothing, but who are attacking the people who risk everything to create something."
🎯 @Jason
Let me explain reality… if you have but sixty seconds:
They were targeting Elon
They were targeting him with fake charges because the socialist-industrial complex is terrified that he would expose their long grift.
They came after him for the Model 3 and Elon’s claims around its potential.
That potential was realized, and it became, along with the Model Y, the best-selling electric vehicle ever created.
These were fake charges to try to stop somebody from building the best category-defining product.
Let that sink in: that's how evil these motherfuckers are.
The loooooong grift has been exposed: socialist grifters are stealing our tax dollars to fund fringe lunacy, NGOs and government programs without oversight or audits.
They’re parasites incapable of creating any product or service that has to compete in the open market.
Elon creates a couple of cutting-edge products each year, and half of them succeed.
Some of them actually change the world. Some of them fail brutally.
It's called capitalism. It's called creation.
This is what moves the human condition forward: trying things.
Trying really hard things.
Socialists come for the people building valuable products and services — that’s the tell
Keep your eye out for the people who've created nothing and risked nothing, but who are attacking the people who risk everything to create Something.
That's the tell.
FSD version 15.
Ashok said FSD V15 will soon be available on customer cars, presumably HW4/AI4 vehicles.
To be clear, having V15 on your personal car does not mean it will suddenly drive itself unsupervised. You can still use it in supervised mode, as you do today.
The next step is enabling customer-owned cars to join the Robotaxi fleet, operating fully autonomously within designated geofenced areas under Tesla's fleet management system. Ashok suggested this could begin around Q2 2027.
I don't interpret his comments as saying your personal car will soon be able to drive you around unsupervised, wherever you want to go.
The underlying technology may be the same, but there is a fundamental distinction between the two operating models.
A car operating as part of Tesla's Robotaxi fleet is subject to geofencing, fleet management and a defined operational and regulatory framework.
Allowing individuals to use their own cars for unsupervised autonomous transportation wherever they choose, outside that managed fleet, is a different proposition. There is no established, generally applicable regulatory pathway for that today.
This is an operational and regulatory distinction, not necessarily a technical limitation.
Tesla Earnings Call, my take:
Tesla had a great quarter and a bad earnings call.
Tesla has an amazing team, from the guy at the top on down. Their execution is exceptional. I respect them greatly.
But they can't tell a story. Or didn't today.
It was an unforced error.
What should have been one of the easiest stories in the world to tell ended up sounding like a box of complexity.
On the quarter:
Car sales are darn good and getting better. FSD is a main driver, which is exactly what you want to hear. Gross margins beat expectations. Tesla is expanding capacity to meet demand.
Very good news. The fundamental business is getting stronger.
And the future businesses are taking shape:
Robotaxi has moved from a product with technical risk to one increasingly defined by regulatory risk. It works, it's safe, and it's scaling. Technical risk is largely off the table. Cybercab production risk isn't a major concern. Austin is getting bigger, with more cities coming.
Optimus is moving, but it's a complex new product. The potential is literally off the charts, and by all accounts Tesla will deliver an exceptional product.
But don't count on 2027 being that year. Frankly, I'm happy about this. I felt expectations had gotten ahead of reality.
But none of this was communicated clearly.
I think Tesla should stop doing these calls. They don't have to. Put out the deck and stop.
Compare this to the SpaceX call for contrast. For whatever reason, the SpaceX team, led by the same boss, is much better at explaining a rather complex business in simple terms. The video format helped, too.
And this is what makes the Tesla call so frustrating. The underlying story is compelling. Tesla is executing. Its existing business is getting stronger, while Robotaxi and Optimus are moving toward enormous new opportunities.
Yet the company made that story harder to understand than it needed to be. For whatever reason.
I think this gets fixed when Tesla and SpaceX merge. I think Gwynne Shotwell will find herself in the same overall position at the combined company. She has the right mix of IQ and EQ and is the perfect match for Elon.
In the end, execution matters more than an earnings call. Numbers matter. And Tesla is getting there.
But this was an entirely avoidable communication failure.
3.3 million miles
Right now it works out to roughly 60K miles a day, about 430K a week. That's around 14% week over week.
tesla.com/robotaxi/safety
Just a tactical play
Consider this: SpaceX’s current AI play, building out 10+ GW of compute on Earth, is merely a tactical move.
The strategic play is space. Starmind. Where 100 GW is just the starting point.
$SPCX
SpaceX could catch Apple next year
Let’s wrap a little perspective around this shall we?
Apple will do ~$480B in revenue in 2026 and maybe around $530B in 2027.
SpaceX and its "little data center business" (this excludes Starlink and any other sources of revenue):
SpaceX will have by EOY 2027 13GW of rentable compute, renting at $30B to $50B a GW, that books out to $390B to $650B in revenue once built.
SpaceX will close 2026 with 3GW of compute, and hopes to add 10GW of compute next year.
$SPCX $AAPL
Round 2
🚨 TESLA Q3 EARNINGS LIVE TODAY!
Join us LIVE for the Q3 numbers, Elon's earnings call, and instant $TSLA reaction!
Wednesday, Oct 21
12:30 pm PT | 2:30 pm CT | 3:30 pm ET
LIVE on X & YouTube
Joining us:
@TeslaBoomerMama
@NickGibbsIAG
@TeslaLarry
@InvestAnswers
@nextbigfuture
@pbeisel
and MORE!
Set your reminder and join us LIVE!
This is the earnings show you'll want to be watching.
If your company isn't casting the blades and vanes for turbines, I'd hold your laughter.
SpaceX could catch Apple next year
Let’s wrap a little perspective around this shall we?
Apple will do ~$480B in revenue in 2026 and maybe around $530B in 2027.
SpaceX and its "little data center business" (this excludes Starlink and any other sources of revenue):
SpaceX will have by EOY 2027 13GW of rentable compute, renting at $30B to $50B a GW, that books out to $390B to $650B in revenue once built.
SpaceX will close 2026 with 3GW of compute, and hopes to add 10GW of compute next year.
$SPCX $AAPL
SpaceX could catch Apple next year
Let’s wrap a little perspective around this shall we?
Apple will do ~$480B in revenue in 2026 and maybe around $530B in 2027.
SpaceX and its "little data center business" (this excludes Starlink and any other sources of revenue):
SpaceX will have by EOY 2027 13GW of rentable compute, renting at $30B to $50B a GW, that books out to $390B to $650B in revenue once built.
SpaceX will close 2026 with 3GW of compute, and hopes to add 10GW of compute next year.
$SPCX $AAPL
More fun with NetP and Starlink.
NetP now tracks all the Starlink satellites and determines the ones your device is actively connected to.
Find NetP for iPhone or Android at netp-app.com/.
If you have Starlink, you will see active tracking of the satellites overhead and the ones you are actively connected to. Statistics accumulate over time. There is an overhead and orbits view.
If you don't have Starlink, the app will still show the satellites overhead and their orbits based on GPS.
In addition you can look at the entire Starlink constellation (all the potential satellites that are active and inactive). This list is dynamically updated as satellites are launched and become part of the network.
Give it a try. Fun.
The Tesla Roadster program delivers benefits far beyond the product itself.
The critics ask, “What’s the point?”
I've got a few. Both tangible and intangible.
1. Technology that cascades across the fleet.
Roadster innovations will downstream into other Tesla products. Lars recently explained in a media interview how the original Roadster's 2018 technology stack evolved into the tri-motor powertrain for the Model S Plaid.
The new Roadster will push the boundaries of batteries, motors, power electronics, and active safety systems. Those innovations will benefit the entire Tesla fleet.
2. Attracting top talent.
The best engineers can work almost anywhere. They gravitate toward companies willing to tackle problems others consider impossible.
Building the next-generation Roadster is a powerful recruiting tool for both Tesla and SpaceX.
3. Retaining top talent.
Smart engineers need hard problems to stay engaged. Chasing incremental efficiency gains has its place, but working on breakthrough technologies, including the possibility of a production flying car, is a different level of challenge.
Ambitious projects inspire, energize, and retain the people who make everything else possible.
4. Cross-pollination of ideas.
Tesla and SpaceX engineers working together creates opportunities for breakthroughs that wouldn't happen inside conventional product programs.
Different disciplines, different constraints, and different ways of thinking collide. That's often where the most interesting innovations emerge.
5. Marketing and bragging rights.
Tesla gets to define what a supercar can be, rather than simply compete within someone else's definition.
The Roadster puts Tesla at the technological frontier, where competitors are left trying to catch up. Customers want the best technology, and being seen as the company pushing the boundaries matters.
6. A forcing function for innovation.
You don't get order-of-magnitude improvements by asking for another 1% improvement to an existing product.
You get them by setting an outrageous goal that forces engineers to rethink the underlying architecture. The Roadster gives Tesla permission to pursue solutions that would never emerge from a conventional product roadmap.
7. A technology showcase for the future.
The Roadster is a tangible demonstration of what becomes possible when Tesla's battery, motor, power electronics, control systems, and manufacturing capabilities advance together.
It gives the world a glimpse of technologies that may eventually become commonplace across the fleet.
The point isn't just to build a better Roadster.
It's to push the boundaries of what Tesla and SpaceX can do, and let the resulting innovations compound across everything they build.
8. Inspiring the next generation. Our most important asset.
Watching a car fly, flip, and accelerate beyond what seems physically possible is inspiring. Building something so extraordinary it looks like AI made it real sparks the imagination.
It gives American children (and children around the world) permission to dream bigger and think, “Maybe the things I thought were impossible aren't impossible after all.”
This program is worth every R&D dollar.
There are enough breakthroughs in the Roadster to fill a factory.
Performance, efficiency, and safety will downstream into every Tesla.
What most people don't understand about engineering is this: a CEO can ask for a more efficient motor and get single-digit percentage gains.
But ask for an impossible new product that requires an entirely new motor, and innovation happens.
Double-digit gains. Sometimes orders of magnitude.
Always the way.
2+2 this week.
Yea @CernBasher and I were blown away by Roadster.
A lot is happening in Texas these days with Tesla and SpaceX.
Fasten your 5-point seatbelt. It's quite a ride from here.
Two Guys, Two Weeks Video
Here is a summary of the topics @pbeisel and I talk about in the video:
The Mind-Blowing Tesla Roadster Demo: Phil and I share our sheer disbelief at the new Roadster demonstration, where the car literally held itself upside down and launched vertically. We both agree that this completely ends the traditional supercar race and redefines what is possible.
Active Safety and SpaceX Cross-Pollination: We break down why the Roadster is more than just a fast car. By combining SpaceX cold-gas thrusters and suction fans with Tesla's AI, the car gains unprecedented active safety features. The FSD computer can control the car's physics far faster than humanly possible, keeping you safe on rain, ice, or snow.
Deep Dive into the Roadster's Hardware & Specs: We look closely at some specific engineering details, including the hidden charge port, structural wheel spokes, the carbon-overwrapped pressure vessel (COPV), and intense top-and-bottom battery cooling. We also marvel at how Tesla is using Optimus robot leg actuators to control the vehicle's rear spoiler and throttle valves.
F1 Track Simulations and Massive G-Forces: We look at the staggering 1,341 horsepower generated by the new dual-motor drive unit. We also review a recent track simulation showing that with just a fraction of its suction downforce, the Roadster could crush Max Verstappen's best Formula 1 lap time at the Austin COTA track.
Porsche's Unfortunate Timing: We have a good laugh at Porsche, who unfortunately published a "love letter to the driver" promoting their new hypercar on the exact same day Tesla made the entire automotive industry's traditional metrics obsolete.
SpaceX's "Colossus 3" Intelligence Factory: We discuss the map and drone views of a 444-acre SpaceX site in Brownsville, Texas. Based on the 400 to 500 megawatts of mobile turbine power generation being installed on-site, I conclude that SpaceX is building a massive new data and compute center.
The Mind-Boggling Compute Revenue Potential: We run the math on this new SpaceX "token factory." If fully populated with Nvidia racks, we estimate this single Texas site could generate anywhere from $132 billion to $183 billion in annual revenue, which would completely dwarf Tesla's current manufacturing revenue.
Our Austin Trip and The "Elon Ecosystem" Expansion: Phil and I recount our recent trip to the X Takeover event in Austin. We discuss the inescapable feeling that Austin is the new Silicon Valley, completely driven by the massive scale of construction at Giga Texas (including the Optimus factory) and SpaceX's Bastrop facilities.
First-Hand Autonomous Cybercab Experience: Phil shares his experience riding the autonomous Cybercab at night. We discuss its flawless, confident driving, the cool purple interior lighting, and why consumers will instantly choose it over competitors like Waymo due to its comfort and design.
The X Takeover Event, Nicki Minaj, and Elon Musk: We reflect on the diverse crowd at the X Takeover event, sharing our thoughts on a surprisingly insightful interview with Nicki Minaj about Optimus and freedom of speech, as well as an uplifting phone-in interview from a very happy Elon Musk.
Feeding Bison from the Cybertruck & Future Mergers: To wrap things up, we share a hilarious personal story of hand-feeding bison and camels directly out of my Cybertruck's window. Finally, we speculate on the upcoming back-to-back earnings calls, noting that a formal merger between SpaceX and Tesla feels completely inevitable at this point.
This is the way. 🚀
$SPCX
"We want the Roadster to be the proving ground for the impossible" —@woodhaus2
