The Bey of Toronto retweeted
Sir Ian McKellen lead a tribute to Sir Patrick Stewart yesterday in London
Via: wheeliegoodshow IG
The Bey of Toronto retweeted
have you read any of the remarkable studies of ancient DNA - a novel field in past 15 or so years. You'd probably find it fascinating. Below are figures from two relevant studies.
On the left is a figure from Lavridis et al (Nature 2014 nature.com/articles/nature13… ) showing a principal components diagram showing "2,345 present-day humans from 203 populations [from Europe and west Asia] genotyped at 594,924 autosomal single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs)". This diagram has become canonical.
I've annotated the diagram with arrows pointing to the points representing Palestinians and Ashkenazi Jews. The Palestinians are located in the "cline" at right going from top middle to bottom right, while Ashkenazis are located in the middle near Italians and Greeks.
On the right is a diagram from Agramat-Tamir et al, including David Reich, cell.com/cell/fulltext/S0092…) in which the points from the Lavridis 2014 diagram can be seen in background as light gray - you should be able to see the match to the points on the left. The foreground includes ancient DNA samples from Bronze Age and Iron Age Israel. Of particular interest are the Iron Age samples (Biblical period) from Megiddo and Tell Abel Beth Maacah. These are virtually indistinguishable from modern Palestinian Christian, Lebanese Christian and Palestinian Muslim DNA.
According to their DNA, the "Palestinians" are not Arab invaders, but the descendants of the occupants of Israel and Judah in Biblical times. Original Judahites, so to speak.
How long before the penny drops from @BermanPCMD 's eyes, I wonder? Israel likes to have a few "Israeli Arab" MKs so it can use their existence to deflect apartheid claims- but when too many "Israeli Arab" citizens vote, that's an "existential crisis" and a "security threat".
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I think I hurt Quito Maggi's feelings (@pollingcanada) - the CEO of Mainstreet. In any case, I didn't say his ward polls were "fabrications", I said they were inaccurate, garbage, and unfalsifiable. #TOpoli
The Bey of Toronto retweeted
Hace 10 años, @FlavioBolsonaro se postuló para alcalde de Río de Janeiro. En el debate, se desmayó y se cagó en los pantalones (sí, de verdad). Uno de las candidatas era médico e intentó ayudar. Su papá, Jair, gritó "¡comunista, quita tus manos de mi hijo!".
The Bey of Toronto retweeted
First of all, when calculating accuracy for polls you have to check if it falls within the margin of error.
For example: Forum’s final poll on Oct 25th (53-43) was in the +-4 MoE and the final result of 54-41.
So what’s the margin of error and why does it matter, then? In 95% of cases if you ran the poll again, it would produce a result within 4 points each way. The MoE shrinks with increased sample size. Simply put, you can say with 95% confidence that the true result is contained in that space.
If the actual result fell outside of the MoE at 95% confidence level it would be ~2 standard deviations away from the mean.
Build Canada’s October 16th poll (Bradford +4.7) had an MoE of +-3.1. The polling miss of 17.1 points (for the margin of victory) meant that the actual result was nearly 5.62 standard deviations away from the poll’s mean.
If this was just because of pure random sampling luck, this has a 1 in 51 million chance of occurring.
The poll did not reflect the voting public that showed up on October 26th. To attribute this miss solely to voter preferences swinging double digits in a week is an excuse for poor methodology.
When you look more broadly than one cherry-picked poll for comparison, the polling story of this election is actually quite interesting.
The pattern across all 11 of the final week poll results shows that the older the fieldwork, the bigger the miss. This points to a significant late stage shift in sentiment back towards Chow, not bad polling.
We polled the Toronto mayoral race in the field from Oct 11-16 and found Bradford +4.7. The final result had Chow +13 on the night. That means out of the 11 final-week polls, ours was the farthest off. If I had a do-over, we should definitely have also run a Wave 2 poll Oct 24-25.
I'm confident in our methodology, which is the same as many of the other pollsters on this list, and has been reviewed and validated by CRIC (the industry standards body for public opinion research).
I'm excited to continue to scale Build Canada's polling operations. We have big plans to do so. And I'm even more excited to be able to field polls at a price that democratizes access to public opinion research.
We're just getting started.
#cdnpoli #topoli
The Bey of Toronto retweeted
Olivia Chow is now the most successful singularly elected politician in Canadian history - Bradford LOST by 13 points - more than 130,000+ votes - but gets the lead on the headline like he almost did it? thestar.com/news/gta/brad-br…
The Bey of Toronto retweeted
Incredible photo from Bradford HQ last night by Laura Proctor in The Local
thelocal.to/olivia-chow-re-e…
Kudos to @danieltateTO and @integrity_to. After a year of "influencing", Chow won the most votes of any mayor in TO history and beat Bradford by a wide margin and the new city council is markedly to the left of the old one. Every "Integrity"-endorsed candidate lost badly.
Ironically, Tate'a own campaign in TC almost re-elected Moise as many people reluctantly voted for the unpopular councillor to stop Tate - who erroneous polls suggested could win. But Moise, who had supported Bailao in 23, was beaten by the more left-wing Stikuts regardless.
A thorough rejection of "Integrity" and Tate's AI-slop driven, race-baiting, fear-mongering, toxic tabloid politics. #topoli
I said months ago that Caryma would be lucky to get 5% of the vote and come fourth. I was too generous. She's currently in 6th place and barely breaking 2%.
The Bey of Toronto retweeted
A Brazilian electoral court ordered the arrest of Salvador transport chief Pablo Souza for obstructing voting by keeping 75 buses off the streets during the presidential runoff, potentially preventing thousands of voters from reaching polling stations.
The Bey of Toronto retweeted
Folks, Brazil is the perfect example of what I’ve said about this platform and Community Notes since Elon launched it.
Tonight and all day tomorrow, your feed will fill with thousands of posts claiming the Brazil election was stolen because Lula’s buddy on the Supreme Court extended voting by 2 hours.
That claim, we already know, is absolute bullshit.
Both campaigns asked for the extension, Flávio Bolsonaro’s included, after bus shortages and bad weather hit voters in several cities.
teapaw.org/tommysantos14/status/2…
Almost every one of those posts will run note-free. The few that get a Community Note will get it after the damage is done.
MAGA propaganda spreads like wildfire here for one reason: Elon Musk designed it that way. Community Notes has always been a red herring.
Give it a few hours. Musk will repost one of his favorite stooges with a one-word “Concerning,” and that lie will land in front of his 241 million followers.
And Community Notes will never catch up.
So when I call Elon Musk Trump’s Joseph Goebbels, I mean every word.
Both Brazil candidates requested voting extensions.
MAGA, once again, is lying about a "rigged" election.
cartacapital.com.br/politica…
"The campaigns of Lula (PT) and Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) requested this Sunday, October 25th, that the Superior Electoral Court extend the voting hours for the second round until 7 PM in localities affected by problems that hindered voters' access to the polls. The requests have different justifications."
"While the PT campaign points to failures in public
transportation, the Bolsonaro campaign mainly cites rain, flooding, road closures, and changes to polling locations."
"Flávio's campaign is requesting two additional hours of voting in 17 municipalities in São Paulo, Paraná, and Santa Catarina. The team is also requesting that the announcement of the presidential results only begin
after the polls have closed in the areas covered by the extension."
The Bey of Toronto retweeted
I am not a huge Chow fan but can we be real for a second… she’s been Mayor for barely 3 years, not even a full term. There are full 1 term Mayors in Canada with far less impressive records. If you’re mad about Toronto today it’s probably John Tory’s fault.
No endorsement from the Toronto Star is which telling about how it feels about Mayor Chow and her record.
There’s always an element of the unknown with change. But the incumbent is well known, 40 years in public office, and the Star is saying it’s time for a change
thestar.com/opinion/editoria…
The Bey of Toronto retweeted
Which firm conducted the poll?
Reaching them by Random CELL PHONE dialing?
Or, via text messages?
Seems a bit WEIRD to me Brian.
The poll from Build Canada has Brad Bradford with 48.4% of the vote compared to 43.7% for Olivia Chow.
The left keeps claiming women don't like Bradford.
Not true.
This poll has 47% of women voting for Bradford compared to 46% for Chow.
torontosun.com/opinion/colum…
The Bey of Toronto retweeted
Alexei Sayle's Stuff (19th October 1989). A lot more work goes into the production of each episode of Stuff than you might expect.
Poor Caryma, major profile in the Star of Toronto-Danforth's major candidates - and she's not one of them. Merely an afterthought as a "controversial lawyer" listed only after Maria Voutsinas. Why is no one taking her campaign seriously?