Shakes, A Large And Particular Man (@TheFatAmerican) header
Shakes, A Large And Particular Man (@TheFatAmerican) profile picture

🇺🇸 🇨🇦🇲🇽 “What separates the winners from the losers is how a person reacts to each new twist of fate.”

Washington, DC
Joined September 2024
Photo by Shakes, A Large And Particular Man (@TheFatAmerican)Photo by Shakes, A Large And Particular Man (@TheFatAmerican)Photo by Shakes, A Large And Particular Man (@TheFatAmerican)Photo by Shakes, A Large And Particular Man (@TheFatAmerican)Photo by Shakes, A Large And Particular Man (@TheFatAmerican)Photo by Shakes, A Large And Particular Man (@TheFatAmerican)Photo by Shakes, A Large And Particular Man (@TheFatAmerican)Photo by Shakes, A Large And Particular Man (@TheFatAmerican)Photo by Shakes, A Large And Particular Man (@TheFatAmerican)
Living in DC I sometimes find myself — without any warning or plan — out on the mall at night
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Shakes, A Large And Particular Man retweeted
30-year-old Real Estate developer Donald Trump is driving around in a Cadillac and buying buildings around New York City. This is the first standalone news article featuring Trump Jr.
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Here’s my plan if “shit hits the fan” * Walk five minutes and knock on the door of my neighbors who are also my mutuals * Drive to XXXX’s apartment, because that’s almost certainly where everyone else is meeting up We are now one of the largest and most-organized groups in the city. We can figure out how to get guns or rice or whatever
Most prepper fantasies are extremely silly and adding AI doomsday fear does not make them more serious Consider: “In 3 days, a major city is out of food in the major stores. Looting starts, first whats left on shelves, then people start taking from one another.“ A few bags of rice and a backup generator will not protect you from looters or armed mobs “Prepping” actually makes you a target If order really breaks down and the government is unreachable society will return to its natural state: “To the strongest” You don’t need bags of rice, you need Chad You need to become Chad, or be friends with him You need to become a leader or follow one You need to know your local firemen or veterans, your family, your neighbors, your priest, your frat bros, your church group, the clerk at the shop everyone knows You need your wits and charisma, you need your reputation for honesty and strength, you need your good name Which is to say you need the same things in war that you needed in peace It’s the same as it ever was: pick good heroes and surpass them
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We had guidebooks. I was a kid and I had the Pokemon Crystal guidebooks and they told me where Machop was and everything The nineties and aughts weren’t an information black hole just because we didn’t have YouTube and Twitter
Gen2 Whitney is one of the hardest battles in Pokémon because of when it happened. 2000. Nobody knew there was a Machop to trade for, or Heracross in a tree, the grand majority disliked Chikorita, and Onix was dogshit. You got blasted, then did better. Stop rewriting history. 😂
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Thoughts on Will Mandis’s new article “The Commanding Heights” (I actually read it): * The basic thesis is that chasing the AI frontier will eat the world. Training model costs are growing exponentially. But America has to pay them, because if it doesn’t maintain its lead, free Chinese open-source models will eat the market and the capital already spent is destroyed. * An economy based on Superintelligence requires an entirely new social contract * Trump Accounts (everyone is a stockholder) are the first small inkling of what this looks like * AI will cause mass unemployment without a new social contract. Management is waning, Managerialism is over, the future is small companies of a half dozen employees plus SI earning billions * America (and China) will handle this transition better than the rest of the world. Everyone else is hosed * The dollar-backed financial system plus AI (They call this the “Neo-Dollar”) will actually be used to extract global capital to continue financing the AI frontier (and American dominance) * For all these issues SI is an issue of basic sovereignty. The frontier labs won’t literally be nationalized but certain arrangements will be made that have the same effect (this is already happening) * Finally, Will and Joe take their title from the Speech Lenin gave after the Bolsheviks won the Russian Civil War. Lenin relaxed certain Communist economic controls confident that the new Soviet State controlled all the actually key “Commanding Heights” (the railroads, the banks, the borders, etc.) * In the new political order America will not need to control AI as such but simply “The Commanding Heights,” whatever those may be * After taking all this time to reach their definitions, Will and Joe do not actually predict what the new Commanding Heights will be Some thoughts: I think their basic outline is right and needs to be taken seriously. Any alternatives depend on deus ex machinas or magical thinking to avoid this outcome (AI progress magically stops, the Chinese fall behind or are incapable of catching up, etc.) I think they deserve a lot of credit for calling their shot, but they actually back away from finishing the thought. The concept of “The Commanding Heights” is less the thesis and more the conclusion of their article, even though it provides the title. What are The Commanding Heights America needs to control to maintain sovereignty over AI? Core datasets? The authentication layer? Satellite constellations? Will and Joe make some hints but back away from actually saying (very telling omission given how long the essay is!) I think this is a good essay (really, an achievement)
The benefits of abundant intelligence will accrue far outside of San Fransisco. Spent the last year writing about capital, sovereignty, and the coming reordering of economic power. THE COMMANDING HEIGHTS Commanding-Heights.com
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Also, I’m glad they wrote a long piece The benefit of longform is to sit and continuously meditate over the same chain of thought. It sinks in. You can’t do this if you just read the summary or ask ChatGPT SI is the most important thing in the world right now. We do not have very much serious longform content helping us think through the future Anyone complaining about length is voting for Idiocracy.
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Finally, for me, there’s something about all this I can’t put my finger on AI is extremely important and will change everything, everything is downstream of this idea, so it’s important to think it through and get it right And I can’t quite see the horizon yet
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AI is going to turn Washington DC into a boomtown The value of AI will be captured by defense contractors near the Potomac. Watch
WOW. These new angles REALLY put the sheer SCALE of Arlington's proposed skyline transformation into perspective. We're talking FIVE residential towers, nearly 1,800 new homes, and a hotel rising on the former Key Bridge Marriott site. An entire new high-rise neighborhood overlooking the Potomac River and Georgetown. This could completely redefine Arlington's waterfront skyline. Would you build it?
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EDS in 2026 is “Elon has had four years to cure blindness and he still hasn’t done it”
No its not. No it isn't. If it was really 'ready from an engineering standpoint' he could prove it on any number of animals *right now*. Elon has been promising these miracle medical cures since 2022 when he promised to restore 'full body mobility' in spinal cord injuries. He's a genuine psychopathic Lair, just like Elizabeth Holmes.
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Shakes, A Large And Particular Man retweeted
The ruins of a former auto repair garage in the Delray neighborhood of Detroit, Michigan. So small, you'd almost miss it if you blinked, but worthy of documentation. Now demolished and gone, as if it never was...
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This is the kind of power war gives to Trump The Iran war makes Trump more powerful than having Congress
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has fired the Pentagon's top military planner, a Pentagon official told CBS News late Wednesday. Army Lt. Gen. Brett Sylvia is the latest in a series of generals to be ousted. The firing comes even as President Trump is weighing renewed strikes on Iran in the eight-month-long war. The Pentagon official, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive personnel matters, said Sylvia was accused of misconduct for leaking classified information related to the Iran war and the Russia-Ukraine war. Sylvia failed three polygraph tests about sharing classified information with the press, the official said, adding that the case has been referred to the Department of Justice. Read more: cbsn.ws/4eZdHeN
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Ten years from now nobody is going to remember the midterms at all
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Starship can carry ~60 V2 satellites and ~40 AI1 satellites per launch 10k launches per year is let’s say ~500k per year SpaceX has already filed with FCC to launch 1 million satellites for its “Starmind” constellation That would be “only” 2 years of launches Then what? Because if you take Elon seriously (and I do) — SpaceX’s launch capabilities will be an order of magnitude larger than the mass they will actually put in space I.e. SpaceX is holding something back
10k Starship launches/year is just from Starbase Louisiana
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Problem with this theory is that if the Arabs had coffee first, and coffee produces an industrial revolution, why didn’t they produce an industrial revolution first? But historians love these goofy theories, because it always feels meaningful to make connections, even when the connections are spurious
Michael Pollan reveals how the introduction of caffeine completely changed human history and consciousness. "Before caffeine, it was a very different world and a very different consciousness. People were drunk a lot of the time, buzzed almost all of the time because it was safer than water" "Water was really how you got diseases. If you fermented things, even low alcohol, it killed a lot of the microbes. So people, even kids, drank hard cider for breakfast" "Tea, chocolate, and coffee all arrive in the same decade in England, and things start to change... no one ate or drank boiling water or hot beverages before" "Boiling it made it much safer. This gave this incredible public health boost to these places, and then you have the drug that fosters a kind of more linear, rational, focused way of thinking" "People in the 1600s started writing about it saying, 'Wow, we have this new civil and sober drink that we can use.' And that, I think, makes possible things like the Industrial Revolution"
Readers added context they thought people might want to know
The clip repeats the myth that pre-caffeine people were mostly drunk because water was unsafe. Historians and medieval sources show water was commonly drunk from wells/springs while weak ale provided nutrition/calories, not a substitute for bad water. leslefts.blogspot.com/2013/11/the-gr… slate.com/human-interest… fakehistoryhunter.net/2026/02/02/dri…
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Shakes, A Large And Particular Man retweeted
Cienfuegos boasts being the only city in Cuba founded by french speaking settlers its urban grid layout and architecture resembles that of late 18th century New Orleans Mexico and France were also places of refuge for families who did not welcome american occupation
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Next-generation of Tinder/Hinge will be back to OKCupid matchmaking, you just need a large-enough dataset of successful matches and the AI will figure it out Will probably make us happier too: TLP wrote that narcissists don’t want to chose, narcissists want to feel chosen
I automated Hinge using Claude Code, a spare Android phone, and a few markdown files. Getting around 20–25 matches/day, and almost 60% of them are people I would've actually swiped right on myself. I've been experimenting with this setup for a while now. Here's a detailed breakdown of how I built it, how it works, and a few things I learned about optimizing my own Hinge profile. 1. The setup is pretty basic - Took a spare Android phone and installed Hinge. - Connected it to my MacBook using ADB. - Connected Claude Code to the phone. - Gave Claude a prompt with my preferences, deal breakers, non-negotiables, locations, etc. That's pretty much all the hardware you need. Also, please don't over-engineer this. Be smart about it. I know some of you are already thinking about replacing the Android phone with a cloud emulator or some complicated setup. I wouldn't recommend it. You're just increasing the chances of getting flagged or banned. Keep things simple. There's no point building an entire infrastructure around something that was supposed to save you 45 minutes a day lol. 2. Giving Claude enough context about me I already have a personality.md file that Claude keeps updating whenever I use it. It has almost everything about me. Places I've travelled, people I've met, experiences I've had, things that went wrong, things I liked, how I generally think, my preferences, etc. It's obviously not 100% accurate, but it has a pretty decent understanding of who I am. I also gave it my entire Hinge profile, including all my photos, prompts, and preferences. So now, when Claude sees someone's profile, it can actually evaluate whether I'd be interested in that person instead of just blindly swiping. 3. How the actual automation works I keep travelling between three cities in India, so I've set up three scheduled sessions. Morning: City 1 Afternoon: City 2 Evening: City 3 Each session runs in batches, with fixed intervals and frequent breaks. Whenever a profile opens: Claude reads the basic details first. If there's an obvious deal breaker, it skips immediately. Otherwise, it goes through all the photos, prompts, and polls. Cross-references everything with my preferences. Decides whether to like or skip. It's not perfect, but the decisions are surprisingly close to what I would've made myself. 4. The interesting part is how it comments on profiles I spent some time going through Instagram reels and comment sections about Hinge openers and replies. Collected around 150 comments that seemed to work well and were also somewhat aligned with my personality. Put them all into a comments.md file. Now, whenever Claude decides to like someone's profile, it uses those comments as references. It doesn't just pick one and paste it. It reads the entire profile and then writes something specific to that person. For example, if it's commenting on her first prompt, it might reference something mentioned in her third prompt or one of her photos. So the comment actually has context instead of being a random pickup line that could be sent to 100 different people. I think this is one of the reasons the setup has been working reasonably well. 5. Everything gets tracked in a Google Sheet For every profile, Claude logs: - Profile details - Whether it liked or skipped - Why it made that decision - What comment it sent - Whether we eventually matched The sheet also gets updated whenever a match happens. I occasionally go through the sheet myself to check how accurate the decisions are. That's where the ~60% number comes from. Around 60% of the matches are people I would've personally swiped right on. There's still a lot of room for improvement, but that's not a bad hit rate for something running on autopilot. 6. Something else I tried: optimizing my own Hinge profile This was actually quite interesting. Since Claude already has my personality.md, I asked it to analyze my current Hinge profile. Everything from photos and their sequence to prompts, relationship intentions, and the little descriptions you can add below certain fields. I also asked it to go through research around dating apps, published studies, and insights shared by people who've worked on products like Hinge. There are so many small things you generally don't think about. For example, one claim I came across was that having a black-and-white photo among your regular coloured photos can significantly improve engagement. The reasoning is that it breaks the visual pattern when someone is scrolling, which might get you a couple of extra seconds of attention. I haven't independently verified the numbers behind that claim, but it was an interesting thing to test. Another example is how you describe what you're looking for. Most people just select something like "short-term, open to long-term" and leave it there. But you can add a small description below it, which gives you another opportunity to communicate what you actually want. Small things, but they add up. I've been experimenting with different photo sequences, prompts, and descriptions to see what changes the match rate. It's basically A/B testing a dating profile lol. 7. Where things stand now The setup has been running for a while. Getting around 20–25 matches a day, with roughly 60% matching my own preferences. Earlier, I'd spend at least 45 minutes a day scrolling through Hinge. With this experiment, the manual effort is almost negligible. One thing I found interesting is how much difference having proper personal context makes. Without my personality.md and comments.md, Claude would probably just be another bot sending generic pickup lines. With those files, it can make decisions and write comments that are much closer to how I'd actually do it. Again, this was just a fun experiment to see how far I could take Claude Code and phone automation, not something I'm actively using as my regular dating approach. There are obvious questions around authenticity and dating-app rules too. I've documented the entire setup, including the prompts and files. If anyone wants the setup file, let me know. Happy to share it. Thank me later for saving you a few hours every week. Now go get back to work :)
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Most prepper fantasies are extremely silly and adding AI doomsday fear does not make them more serious Consider: “In 3 days, a major city is out of food in the major stores. Looting starts, first whats left on shelves, then people start taking from one another.“ A few bags of rice and a backup generator will not protect you from looters or armed mobs “Prepping” actually makes you a target If order really breaks down and the government is unreachable society will return to its natural state: “To the strongest” You don’t need bags of rice, you need Chad You need to become Chad, or be friends with him You need to become a leader or follow one You need to know your local firemen or veterans, your family, your neighbors, your priest, your frat bros, your church group, the clerk at the shop everyone knows You need your wits and charisma, you need your reputation for honesty and strength, you need your good name Which is to say you need the same things in war that you needed in peace It’s the same as it ever was: pick good heroes and surpass them
This quoted post is unavailable.
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Finally someone who understands Mexico
Morena will stay in power. The window for American intervention has closed, if it was ever open in the first place. The United States does not overthrow governments that comply. It disciplines them. Mexico has been disciplined, and Mexico complies. In September, Rubio said Mexico's fight against the cartels "is not nearly enough" and that the U.S. would confront those organizations "one way or another". He also claimed that vast territories of Mexico are controlled by narco-terrorist organizations rather than the state. Yet this is pressure, not regime change. Rubio himself said he does not want to disrupt the relationship with Mexico, citing his rapport with Sheinbaum. Although Rubio would certainly prefer an ideological ally, he does not need one. He needs results on fentanyl, migration, and Chinese transshipment, and he is getting them. What guarantees this arrangement is the succession. The key variable is 2030. Omar GarcĂ­a Harfuch is not an ideologue. He is a career police officer from a family of the old security state. Polls place him at 40% of Morena sympathizers' preferences for the 2030 candidacy. Velasco of the Green Party openly promoted him, Washington reportedly backed him, and Morena's hardliners distrust him. He publicly rules out running, saying his priority is security, but that denial is standard Mexican ritual. If Harfuch is the heir, Washington gets a security partner and right-leaning man inside a left-wing party. The same logic explains the foreign policy theater. Morena is, in large part, a continuation of PRI-style governance. Its cordial ties with Havana and its silence on Managua are not alignment but leverage. Refusing to condemn the Cuban and Nicaraguan dictatorships costs little and buys the appearance of independence. Washington understands this perfectly and allows it. It knows Mexico is not following the Cuban path. The rhetoric is domestic consumption and negotiating posture. In substance, the Mexican state is bound to the American one. The old PRI played the same game for decades: nationalism in the speeches, but the U.S. interests in the decisions. At home, the road from 2024 to mid-2026 was bumpy. Sheinbaum had to govern with a party built around another man, and the AMLO loyalists held key positions. That has largely been resolved. In February, AdĂĄn Augusto LĂłpez left Morena's Senate coordination, with Ignacio Mier taking formal control while the Tabasco politician moved to "territorial work". Reports also emerged that Andy LĂłpez BeltrĂĄn would leave the party's organization secretariat, to be replaced by Citlalli HernĂĄndez. The lesson of Mexican history applies: the outgoing caudillo's network always erodes. Calles fell to CĂĄrdenas. Every PRI president eventually emancipated himself from his predecessor. Sheinbaum is following the script. Here lies the modern caveat. The PRI controlled people through unions, peasant leagues, and patronage. Morena is building control through data. The biometric CURP took effect after a decree was published, with reforms backed by Sheinbaum and Morena. It incorporates facial recognition and fingerprints to verify citizens' identity. Mobile phone lines were tied to registered owners, and unregistered lines were to be disabled after June 30, 2026, allowing only emergency calls. It is also linked to social programs and pensions, including registering for and collecting benefits. Combine this with direct cash transfers, and the state no longer needs union intermediaries. It knows who you are, where your phone is, and what money you receive. This is corporatism without corporations. The patron-client relationship has become individualized and digitized.
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Better? The crab cake is full of filler like a giant fish stick, but it’s not *bad*, the avocado overpowers the hollandaise but it’s perfectly ripe so it’s not *bad* But it’s not really even a Bene anymore 7.8/10
Very small for the money ($45 pp), but I think the real problem is that I didn’t like the art
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Feel like I should knock a point off for the bill because there’s no way two Bene’s coffee and one juice came to $80
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