🔍 Sharing ideas about undervalued stocks and macro. For curious investors willing to diversify their exposure. Not investment advice.
North
Joined June 2022
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📸Flashback to 2006. Fed stops hiking 7.2006. US inflation goes back to target 10.2006 (1.3%). LT yields follow. Oil bottoms 1.2007 ($50) and inflect higher. Inflation is back. Fed cuts rates in 8.2007. Market tops 10.2007. Oil/inflation go bananas til 7.2008. Then the collapse.
🇺🇸 $NQ failed breakdown with recapture of the Liberation day trendline 4.2025-3.2026-11.2026? #NASDAQ100 $QQQ
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$NAHB index at 29 suggests we are in 9.2006. If we are entering a RE bear market (as suggested by oversupply + rates), bottom was a reading of 8 in 2.2009. 2.5y of pain still ahead? Bull case is yields top, refinancing triggers, and housing market slowly turns. $BLDR $RKT
Trying to buy & call a trough is one of the hardest things to do, but there are plenty of historically ‘cheap’ names out there that are arguably trading on trough earnings, and the data certainly isn’t going to look great when you’re supposed to be buying.
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$URG #uranium play supplying $CEG started production in 2012. Sold 500-800klbs/y in 2014-2016 (traded >1usd), 300klbs/y 2017-2018, then 100klbs/y in 2023 and 260-370klbs/y in 2024-2025, with 600klbs planned for 2026 ramping up to 2Mlbs in 2028. Costs around 50usd/lb. Price disconnect from between UX spot and stock price: directional movements are replicated, but not amplitude. Traded at 1.5usd/share when UX was 50usd, is now trading at 0.8usd a share with UX at 90usd.
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♾ Are US #uranium miners one of the most asymmetric trades in the market currently? $CEG signed LT PPAs with the full Mag7 ($MSFT/ $META starting 2027, $GOOG starting 2028, $AMZN starting 2030+), and they buy uranium from $UUUU (ramping up to 2Mlbl/y in 2026) and $URG (ramping up to 2Mlbl/y in 2028).
US Consumer confidence plunging at ATL while saving rates are plunging, while real disposable personal income is flat MoM, while Daily linkUp job opening are plunging. Is the tape starting to get much worse under the surface? teapaw.org/GoldForecast/status/21…
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For the ones interested... #2023
10Y 5%, horrific sentiment on duration, everyone saying it’s all fiscal & debt issues (had zero to do with that), moment oil topped, 10Y followed shortly after, some attribution to Yellen sure (probably see same with Bessent in November @ QRA) but a lot had to do with oil; & then a big rotation into year-end on the notion of all the stimulative measures from just oil down / bonds up and dollar up as hikes get priced out
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$MSFT Capex only at 41b in Q2 and insane cash from operations at 55b (vs 43b last year), hence still FCF>0... 2026 Capex guidance at 190b means 59b/q for q3 and q4.
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🇨🇦 $BVR.ax owns a tier 1 #gold project in Ontario (past-producing high-grade open pit 2.7Moz/7.2g/t Au). Fully funded with A$35M PP at A$0.75. Drilling 15000m now to expand the 1Moz/4.1g/t near-surface resource. Trading at A$0.33/A$80M Mcap. New management is former DeGrey mining team (sold for $ 6bn).
🇺🇸 US #bank #credit is rolling over. Blip or more prolonged drop in credit #origination? Source: #Fed H8.
🇨🇳 Chinese #silver imports have fallen dramatically since March, but still massive compared to 2025 $XAGUSD stats.customs.gov.cn/indexEn
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US #diesel price increase 30% and European diesel price increased 10%, those increases are likely permanent, meaning they will transfer downward in the supply chain.
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