Science-minded, JFK (aspirational, "traditional" liberal?) Bayesian. Interested in being less wrong about stuff.
Joined May 2016
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David R retweeted
When I’m wrong, I’m wrong. I thought when unemployment was low, GDP was hi, household income rose, it meant everyone was winning.
Not true.
The American economy has decoupled the economic progress of asset owners from wage earners to such a degree that broad based measures of success are no longer reliable measures of progress.
This single issue of asset ownership vs progress of wage earners will be the defining issue in all future elections.
Other issues will get caught in the interpretation (price of eggs, Iran war, price of gas etc) but the candidate that realizes that those are downstream of asset vs wage earners and gets their messaging focused on it will win.
No amount of money spent in an election or gerrymandering will change this outcome.
That is what I learned on Nov3.
David R retweeted
I still prefer Bitcoin over gold for the time being, and its relative price is holding up even as both assets have sold off.
David R retweeted
$BTC: A Bitcoin Price Model Frozen in 2012 Still Explains 93.1% of Log-Price Variation 14 Years Later.
Think about that. Same exponent. Same intercept. No recalibration.
The numbers are remarkable:
• 93.1% R² : original 2012 model, unchanged.
• 96.2% R² : continuously refitted model.
• 44% less unexplained variance per doubling of Bitcoin's age, historically, even with frozen parameters.
• 5,226 walk-forward days: Bitcoin closed above its P10 lower valuation reference 88.9% of the time.
Bitcoin has survived crashes, halvings, exchange failures, and regulatory shocks.
Yet its long-term mathematical scaling relationship has persisted and its historical fit has strengthened.
Here's what makes this extraordinary:
Anyone can fit a mathematical equation to the past.
Bitcoin's equation was frozen in 2012. The next 14 years of history weren't known when it was fitted.
The remarkable discovery isn't that Bitcoin follows a power law. It's that 14 years of new data haven't destroyed the original relationship.
David R retweeted
Transgenderism has many important antecedents among the social contagions, mass panics, and self-mutilation cults that recur through history.
What's unique about this one is that 1.) your child's guidance counselor, school principal, and suburban strip mall pediatrician were a part of the cult conspiring to induct your quirky child into it and 2.) all these state officials and medical professionals were working in alignment with a whole of government effort to propagate the cult announced by the President of the United States on day on his assumption of the office.
David R retweeted
With the BCOMSP index making a new all-time high in October, the secular bull market remains intact.
David R retweeted
$BTC Will Likely Deliver the Highest 10-Year CAGR of the AI Revolution.
The thesis is grounded in Bitcoin's historical power-law growth, expanding adoption and fixed 21M supply cap.
AI makes intelligence abundant. Robots make labor abundant.
Amazon, Microsoft and Google will profit, but scaling requires hundreds of billions in capital.
Bitcoin's supply cannot expand to meet demand.
Consider a hypothetical machine economy:
• 1 billion AI agents.
• $100/month in transactions each.
• 10% settled in BTC.
That's $120B in annual BTC payments.
But payments aren't the real opportunity, the Holdings are.
If 100M agents each hold $100:
$10 billion in BTC reserves.
125,000 BTC at $80K, or 0.6% of the entire 21M supply.
The fundamental difference:
Hyperscalers must spend capital to expand capacity. Bitcoin's supply cannot expand when demand rises.
As humans and machines both accumulate BTC, the potential for price appreciation is enormous.
AI creates abundance, and bitcoin captures demand for scarcity.
That's my bet for the highest 10-year CAGR.
$BTC
David R retweeted
Is the S&P 500’s run over? Seems like a good day to share my latest conversation with @jvisserlabs.
He thinks the index’s best days are behind it, and he’s convinced the next big wealth boom won’t come out of Wall Street.
We get into AI replacing jobs, the growing wealth divide, Bitcoin, and why he thinks the next 5 years will change everything.
What do you think of his thesis?
TIMESTAMPS:
00:00 Trailer
1:01 Why Wall Street's doomsayers keep getting it wrong
5:00 Is the S&P 500's best era behind us?
10:51 How tokenization could change what people can invest in
16:39 Why Microsoft's workforce plans could be a warning for American workers
23:05 Could AI actually lead to lower taxes for workers?
28:38 Is the easy money in AI stocks already gone?
30:50 How Jordi runs his business with AI employees
36:28 Why the next wave of wealth could bypass Wall Street
45:37 Why banning AI in schools could backfire
51:35 Jordi's healthcare prediction and Bitcoin's quantum threat
David R retweeted
JUST IN: Leopold Aschenbrenners Fund (Situational Awareness) has reportedly officially blown up…
These are the current (now liquidated) holdings:
- $MU bought at $1,153, now $703, (-39%)
- $CORZ bought at $25.6, now $11.1, (-56%)
- $SNDK bought at $2,268, now $874, (-61%)
- $NBIS bought at $273, now $121, (-55%)
- $CRWV bought at $99, now $42, (-57%)
- $BE bought at $301, now $165, (-45%)
Use him as a lesson why you NEVER over-leverage into high risk positions.
That concludes an end of an era…
David R retweeted
The Democrats may have taken control of the House and the Senate, they may have humiliated Donald Trump and the Republican Party, but the real fight is only beginning. It is not simply a battle to hold the corrupt Trump regime to account, something that can only be done if the Democrats are willing overcome their reluctance to carry out impeachment proceedings against the president. It is also a battle to sweep away the corporate-indentured hierarchy of the Democratic Party, including Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries.
The Democratic Party since the presidency of Bill Clinton, who gave us the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), the greatest betrayal of the working class since the 1947 Taft-Hartley Act, and gutted New Deal-era welfare programs such as the Aid to Families with Dependent Children, is a more polished version of corporate and oligarchic rule, abjectly subservient to the war machine, the Israel lobby and their funders in the billionaire class.
The country is broken. Corruption, in both parties, is endemic. Federal agencies have been hollowed out and destroyed. The courts, including the Supreme Court, have been handed over to right-wing ideologues. The working class is crippled with debt peonage and substandard wages. Constitutional norms and protections have been erased. Billionaires, including Trump, pay little to no income tax. The 2010 Citizens United Supreme Court ruling, which allows big business to fund their hand-picked candidates, sustains a system of legalized bribery.
The public may clamor for a raise in the minimum wage, Medicare for All, regulation of the big banks and private equity firms, an end to arms shipments to Israel and campaign finance reform, but no one in the leadership of the Democratic Party listens or cares. They serve their paymasters.
Will cutthroat capitalism, sold to us under the sanitized name of neoliberalism, be allowed to continue to impoverish the citizenry and funnel wealth upwards into the hands of the 1 percent? Will corporations be regulated and policed? Will corporate criminals be brought to trial? Will our democracy be restored? Or will the grotesque sight of a trillionaire, Elon Musk, gutting federal agencies and pouring hundreds of millions into elections to try and control the outcome be normalized?
The handful of politicians who attempt to confront the corruption and the devastation visited on the American working class through deindustrialization and deregulation, such as Bernie Sanders, see their campaigns sabotaged by the Democratic Party leadership, including Barack Obama.
We must demand that progressive candidates, including Michigan senator-elect Abdul El-Sayed and Maine’s Troy Jackson, build coalitions to oust the Democratic Party leadership, raise the minimum wage, enact universal health care, prosecute corporate crime and impeach Trump. It will be up to us.
The Democratic Party hierarchy will see the results not as a repudiation of Trump, but an endorsement of the flaccid and ineffectual position of a party that stands for little and fights for less. This would be yet another betrayal by the Democrats of voters. It would keep alive the very real prospect of another fascist, one better organized and more intelligent, taking the White House in two years.
Of course, this fight will mean not only jettisoning a corrupt Democratic Party leadership, but turning on the mega-donors, lobbyists and corporations that fund and control the Democratic Party.
The effort to wrest the party back from the hands of corporations and oligarchs will be vicious and difficult. It will require us to rely on the power of mass movements to sever these bonds. Nothing else will work.
If we fail, our anemic democracy will not be saved by these midterm elections, but doomed.
David R retweeted
Think this is cope.
1. Equities price decades
2. More voices means more skepticism means more hurdles means more concessions
The “well acktually” is missing reality of politics, markets, and signal for the future.
David R retweeted
The next Bitcoin bull market begins as they all do, in disbelief
First Gradually, Then Suddenly: Why crypto's ultimate meme cuts both ways- and why I believe having a socialist Democratic Party in control will be the best case for Bitcoin open.substack.com/pub/dgt100…
David R retweeted
Tonight’s outcome isn’t about placing faith in Democrats or socialist principles; it’s about holding Republicans accountable for betraying their promises.
All Republicans had to do was:
1. put Americans First
2. not start another war
3. prosecute sex traffickers
David R retweeted
Welcome Back To The Hurdle Rate
Episode 80: Debt Crisis Is Accelerating
In this week’s Hurdle Rate, the crew breaks down the $6B Binance hack, Triple C spreads blowing out, and why Digital Credit like $SATA and $SATS may compress against junk. They also discuss what Fannie Mae preferreds teach about underwriting dividends, why both mNAV frameworks break, and why $ASST trades like perpetual leverage on $BTC.
Here’s the latest with @ColeMacro, @PunterJeff, @Werkman, and @TimKotzman.
Timestamps:
00:00 - Intro
00:52 - The Binance Hack
02:57 - Triple C Spreads Blow Out
11:02 - Bitcoin Still Seen As Risk
14:30 - Digital Credit Spreads Will Compress
18:41 - The Fannie Mae Preferred Lesson
23:22 - Rethinking mNAV
33:00 - Premium Or Discount?
35:36 - Breaking Both Valuation Models
42:17 - The ATM Narrative Is Wrong
46:39 - Perpetual Leverage On Bitcoin
David R retweeted
Measuring form the April 2025 low (which started the melt-up phase of this cycle) the cap-weighted and equal-weighted index are now even. The cap-weighted index has been “dead money” since the June 2 high, while underneath the surface things are churning. There are many examples of bull market cycles that took prolonged breaks without breaking sharply lower, and my guess is that we are in one of those phases. Think 1994, 2015, and 2018. All three years produced solid earnings growth which was offset by multiple compression.
David R retweeted
The basic question concerns our society's capacity for self-correction after our truth-seeking and justice-enforcing apparatuses both committed themselves to a ghastly error
Although I’d have worded it a bit differently, Wesley’s post is 100% correct.
My guiding premise over these past years has been that the trans issue never was just—or even primarily—about people who identify as transgender.
It’s a symbolic, high-visibility proxy debate over issues and fault lines at the heart of contemporary liberal democracies: the nature and limits of parental authority; the role of schools in the moral and cultural education of youth; the norms and expectations that guide the professional class; the meaning of expertise and the basis for its demand for deference; freedom of speech and the limits of social and governmental control; the mutually correcting role of science and common sense; and so much more.
Failure to understand these deeper issues is what leads to misunderstanding of why people of all political and ideological persuasions oppose “gender identity.” Reduction of that skepticism to “hate” or “prejudice”—which may exist in some quarters!—guarantees a continuation of culture war.
Framing these debates as a debate over the fate of transgender people is therefore misleading, and not a bit self-serving. Of course they are implicated, and their rights ought to factor in to public debates just like everyone else’s. But the assumption that the debate is all about how a society accommodates a discrete minority is, at best, superficial.
David R retweeted
Thanks for having me back on the podcast, @GaryBohm5!
Luke Gromen sharing about why he sees what is going on in gold and silver as a warning signal for an incoming liquidity problem. This one covers a lot of ground and is a must watch. Full interview out tomorrow. @LukeGromen
David R retweeted
$77k is 47% below the long-term adoption path. Pure-scaling P10 implies 11× in 10 years.
The pure-scaling P10 path implies an 11× multiple over ten years with 27% CAGR with the same power-law relationship continues. That is not a floor or a target. It is the historical 10th-percentile residual applied to the unchanged exponent.
Every exogenous shock has failed to rewrite the spine. Short-term price is still noise. The long-term process is intact and the gap is large.
This is accumulation territory, not a broken thesis.
