RT @SuburbanDrone: This morning Nvidia crashed through the April lows, but is now trying to rally back above the April last line of support…
Tim O’Brien retweeted
Taparia Tools has announced a ₹40 interim dividend on a stock trading at just ₹17.9
If you sell your one MRF share and invest that money in Taparia Tools, your interim dividend could jump from ₹3 to nearly ₹2.8 lakh.
This is the kind of wealth creation they don't teach you in finance courses.
Tim O’Brien retweeted
🚨 THIS $NVIDIA DUMP WAS ENGINEERED
$1.7 trillion erased in five weeks.
Down 31% from $243.37.
Retail thinks the news did that. The news didn't do that.
The news was the match.
Leverage was the building.
Margin debt hit a record $1.50 trillion in June and has been unwinding ever since.
Every desk on the street knew exactly where those positions sat.
All they needed was a headline ugly enough to justify the flush.
They got one, and it was perfect: an investigation, a subpoena threat, a class action.
Three stories that take months to resolve and nothing a retail trader can price.
So the stops came out.
Price swept the lows at $164.27 and parked at $176.
Now ask the only question that matters.
Who was buying while 1.7 trillion dollars of panic hit the tape?
Nobody dumps a position this size into the open.
You distribute into strength and you accumulate into fear, and fear is what the last five weeks manufactured.
Here's the part that doesn't change.
A subpoena is a hearing. An investigation is a disclosure.
Nobody in Washington wants to be the person who handed the AI race to China. Congress can threaten whatever it likes.
The chips still ship.
My zone is $160 to $180. That's where I'm buying.
Earnings land November 17 and I'm sizing for more pain first.
Target $260.
Follow and turn notifications on.
Tim O’Brien retweeted
$NOW: This indecisive price action at oversold conditions suggests a bottom is in or very close.
monero:native just failed the exact level everyone was watching—and that matters.
$600 was the breakout trigger. Monero couldn’t hold it and slipped back toward the mid-$560s, turning bullish momentum into a real stress test.
The privacy trade is still alive, but bulls need to reclaim $600–$625 with volume. Lose $557 cleanly, and the next meaningful support sits closer to $535–$540. Market levels
I’m not chasing here. Reclaim $600, I’m interested. Lose $557, I wait.
Breakout loading—or bull trap?
#XMR #Monero #CryptoTrading
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Tim O’Brien retweeted
$TSM just delivered 59.7% revenue growth. My call: buy now.
October sales hit NT$586.89B. Q4 guidance stands at US$52.3–54.3B, backed by strong leading-edge demand and the 2nm ramp.
I'm bullish on the recovery. The business is growing fast, and this pullback looks worth buying. Near-term volatility comes with the trade.
$TSM #TSMC #AI #Semiconductors
Tim O’Brien retweeted
$QQQ All-time highs VWAP is currently around 705. Before that, its 200dma is around 681.
$AMD hit its 200-day moving average. Buyers didn’t hesitate.
The stock has bounced roughly 17% from that test, even after last week’s brutal chip selloff. That’s the reaction I wanted to see. Now I’m watching whether AMD can hold the move once the first rush of buying fades.
Does this look like a durable rebound to you?
#AMD #Semiconductors #AIStocks
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Tim O’Brien retweeted
8 hours in the car gives you way too much time to think, but something hit me today about why I think so many traders struggle to build confidence in themselves…
I’m incredibly thankful for the mentors who’ve helped me over the years, but at some point, you’ve gotta quit waiting for someone else to give you the green light. How are you supposed to trust your own judgment if you’re constantly borrowing somebody else’s judgment on a day to day basis?
There’s a time to learn from others, and there’s a time to take the training wheels off & start taking your own shots.
Start small, keep your risk stupidly tight + journal everything. And for goodness’ sake, get comfortable being wrong… heck, you might even be wrong more often than you’re right (this will be true).
I don’t like confidence can come from someone telling you what to do. I think it comes from making your own decisions, living with the outcomes and then learning from them.
My 2 cents.
Tim O’Brien retweeted
BREAKING: The US unemployment rate has remained below 5.0% for 62 consecutive months, its 2nd-longest streak on record.
This trails only the 64-month stretch recorded during the 1960s and 1970s.
This is also 20 months longer than the 42-month streak that ended during the 2020 pandemic.
The current run began in September 2021, when the unemployment rate fell to 4.7%, from 5.1% in August 2021.
To put this into perspective, the unemployment rate has averaged 5.6% since the start of the century.
The US job market is still remarkably resilient.
$NVDA bounced on Friday. I’m watching $175.
After a rough week for AI stocks, Nvidia closed at $186.64. The chart puts its 100-week moving average around $175, and that’s the test I care about. If buyers show up there, I’d take the rebound more seriously. If they don’t, Friday’s green day won’tmean much.
Earnings are coming Nov. 17. Would you buy a test of $175, or wait for the numbers?
#NVDA #AIStocks #Semiconductors
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Tim O’Brien retweeted
NEXT WEEK COULD BE BRUTAL FOR THE US STOCK MARKET.
On Thursday, the S&P 500 closed -4.36%, wiping out nearly $2.9 Trillion.
In the past 15 years, the S&P 500 has only closed 18 days where it dropped more than 4%.
And in each case, what happened next was brutal.
1) AUGUST 2011: SPX closed -4.78% on 4th August 2011.
- In the next 3 trading days, SPX dumped another 8%.
2) FEBRUARY 2018: SPX closed -4.10% on 5th Feb 2018.
- In the next 4 trading days, SPX dropped another 4.5%.
3) FEBRUARY 2020: SPX closed -4.42% on 27th Feb 2020.
- In 2 weeks, we had the COVID crash, which everyone knows about.
4) SEPTEMBER 2022: SPX closed -4.32% on 13th September 2022.
In the next 10 days, SPX crashed another 8%.
5) APRIL 2025: SPX closed -4.84% on 3rd April 2025.
- In the next 2 trading days, SPX dumped another 8.7%.
This time, we had a 4.36% drop on 5th November, and if history is anything to go by, there's more pain ahead for US stocks.
Tim O’Brien retweeted
History says last week's drop was a buying opportunity.
On Thursday, the S&P 500 declined -4.4%, its largest daily drop since April 2025.
Before that day, the index recorded 56 one-day declines of at least -4.0% since 1952.
Following such drops, the S&P 500 has gained +1.0% on average over the next week.
By comparison, its average weekly return across all periods has been +0.2%.
Over the next month, the index has averaged a gain of +2.0%, compared with +0.8% across all periods.
Over the following 3 months, the S&P 500 has averaged +6.7%, more than triple the historical average of +2.2%.
History suggests the market is set for a meaningful rebound.
Tim O’Brien retweeted
US mortgage demand is down to historic lows:
US purchase mortgage applications index fell -2% last week, to 131 points, its 2nd-lowest since January 2025.
This also marks the 6th-lowest weekly reading since 1995, down -32% since January.
As a result, US mortgage applications are now -50% below the pre-pandemic levels seen in 2019.
This comes as the 30Y fixed mortgage rate has risen +120 basis points since February, to 7.18%, near its highest since November 2023.
Rates have now been above 7.0% for 7 consecutive weeks.
The US housing market is frozen.
Five trading days. Five green closes. +$10,305.19.
Here’s the part I’m most proud of: my trade win rate was only 47%.
That’s proof you don’t need to be right all the time. Cut the bad trades, press the clean setups, and judge the day by execution—not ego.
Really grateful to @Graham_Walker_ for the guidance and accountability.
Strong start to November. Now the goal is simple: stay disciplined and protect the momentum. 📈
Tim O’Brien retweeted
$800 Billion has been added to the US stock market as tech stocks recover after yesterday's bloodbath.
Tim O’Brien retweeted
The AI selloff followed a clear chain: election uncertainty around data centers, a reset in AI spending expectations, then crowded tech trades unwinding.
$TQQQ fell nearly 19% on Thursday. Friday’s rebound was sharp, but my call for next week is clear: the first bounce will face sellers. I expect $NVDA and $AMD to stabilize before the broader AI trade does.
If you found this helpful, please like, follow, and share. 👇
Wall Street’s AI selloff just triggered a circuit breaker in South Korea.
The KOSPI plunged 8.5% within minutes of the open, forcing a 20-minute trading halt. Samsung and SK Hynix were hit hard as investors rushed out of the memory and AI trade.
This is bigger than a bad day in Asia. It’s a global unwind of crowded AI positioning.
My view: fundamentals didn’t change overnight. Liquidity did—and that usually creates more volatility before a real bottom forms.
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