My personal trading journey & insights │ Not Financial Advice │ Using The AI Terminal to catch big regime shifts 👉 @AionAnalytics Code QUANT
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Joined March 2023
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$QQQ -7%
$SPY -2.5%
$VIX + 37%
$DRAM -25%
$SOXX -16%
We are getting close, hope my research was able to help a few of you.
The threads will be in the discord going forward due to the utter amount of criticism we received over the last few weeks.
Code QUANT 4 30% off
just some clarity post here for everyone
October expectation from my opinions & research is $SPY 5%ish drawdown and $QQQ 7-10% by end of oct around 18-22nd and put in the floor there for a choppy uptrend into eoy
Buying that dip with both hands
$SPY $730-$735 if it gets there
$QQQ $680-$690 (more volatile ik, maybe even $700)
These are my own rough estimates from what i am seeing so please take it with a grain of salt and DYOR.
Things can change and moves can extend due to panic and things unravel / accelerate.
Indices can visit near ATHs/make new AThs but i will be more risk off as i stated earlier this week, near interim tops high beta names can be explosive so i may play some things with small size. Weird market we have been in for a while.
I will take advantage of oct to sell puts on names i want along with taking some put debits when the time is right, if you're early it is useless.
Markets tend to extend both ways so if we get there, things accelerate the models wont flinch until it starts to see a flip, it is better to be patient than to be early
Looking for model consensus flips, extreme measures hitting, heatmaps starting to flip and macro regime to shift
These are some of the things i look for along with analogues/quant tab that has the built in indicators as well
Can eat my alive in the comments, but that is my thesis and i believe big in "avoid ruin at all costs", so when these bigger windows for pain open up i take them seriously.
Hope this helps and if you want to eat me alive in the comments that also works
Tradable Astronaut retweeted
The Octover Momentum Trade has largely played out. This is one of the ugliest-looking Bottom 20 leaderboards of the Aion Index that I’ve seen. Impressive stuff.
Tradable Astronaut retweeted
There's something happening in this community right now and I can feel it.
It's tighter than it's ever been. People who got tired of reading the news and being wrong. People who spent the year chasing headlines and have the account to show for it. I know it's been hard. A lot of retail got worked over this year and most of them don't talk about it.
What I can tell you is that the people in here stopped guessing. They look at the same panels I look at, they do the work, and they're positioned for what's coming. And what's coming is big. I won't say more than that here.
Keep the people around you who tell you how it is. The ones who show you their own work instead of shoving someone else's profits in your face. Anyone can repost a win. Very few can produce one.
I see it in every other community and I understand why, it's a marketing strategy. I've shown my own profits fewer than four times this year, on purpose. My job isn't to impress anyone. It's to perform. That's why it feels the way it does in here right now, and why Aion is different from anything else out there.
My third article is live inside the Aion Terminal.
Which Drain the Sink Flows Into: Rotation, Liquidity and the High Beta Complex.
On October 6, with $SPX at a record close, I called a selloff into late October, a bottom this week, a V, and a Q4 everything rally. The first half of that script has played. This is the second half.
What is in it: the good, the bad and the ugly of the October flush. The one variable the market sorted the AI complex on, and who is already standing behind the names it sold. The full leaderboard inversion across three timeframes, and the afternoon the beaten-down groups led the table for the first time since the top.
The index moved a couple of percent. The leaderboard underneath it inverted completely. Enjoy!
Tradable Astronaut retweeted
Probably not one that you want to miss...
Article 2 just dropped inside AION.
Reading Between the Strikes: The Dealer Roadmap to Year End.
What is in it: the full dealer map on $SPY and $QQQ through month end, the one structural change that printed this week that almost nobody noticed, two charts that are important, and the two numbers that confirm it, one on $QQQ, one on $VIX.
Plus a watchlist of seven names where sector strength and dealer positioning finally agree, pulled from a scan of the full board today.
The index books repriced three times this month. The year end destination has not moved once. That part is in there too.
I appreciate the support
But I will say this once for everyone.
The reason we don’t have a substack or an X sub is because we don’t want to hold anyone’s hand.
The goal is to pass on our knowledge and for you all to learn to use @AionAnalytics to be able to beat the market consistently.
It’s not a golden ticket, it’s our best process and what has helped us the most.
A tool is only as good as its user, and one shouldn’t rely on a person to trade or invest for them.
If that’s what people are looking for you can hire someone to do that.
I’m tired of people stealing my research everyday and putting it behind their own paywall as if I don’t see it.
Good luck to those who did that and apologies to those it has affected.
“Give a man a fish, and you'll feed him for a day. Teach a man to fish, and you'll feed him for a lifetime."
Ik it’s not about the $, but u could explore making an X sub or diff platform thts a good in between. Dedicated “fans”/ppl that appreciate your work but not forced to pay $500/mo. to read it. Idk, just sad to hear only accounts I find objective and credible now majorly paywalled
Probably not one that you want to miss...
Article 2 just dropped inside AION.
Reading Between the Strikes: The Dealer Roadmap to Year End.
What is in it: the full dealer map on $SPY and $QQQ through month end, the one structural change that printed this week that almost nobody noticed, two charts that are important, and the two numbers that confirm it, one on $QQQ, one on $VIX.
Plus a watchlist of seven names where sector strength and dealer positioning finally agree, pulled from a scan of the full board today.
The index books repriced three times this month. The year end destination has not moved once. That part is in there too.
Tradable Astronaut retweeted
Not a lot of screenshots going around right now, are there?
You think the goal is calling a number?
The goal is persevering, outperforming, and having a plan no matter how it plays out, so one level missing changes nothing. That’s the difference between a quant and a guy riding beta up and down.
I called every major turning point this year publicly, for free, and the thanks is guys like this showing up to argue about one level. That’s exactly why the research moved internal.
Here’s what it looks like on my book this year, on a 7 figure portfolio. Few can say the same.
This quoted post is unavailable.
The cascade date we posted last week is today. Here is the $QQQ board at the open.
Spot $713. Net gamma negative $8.18B. First support sits right below at $710, a $1.12B wall. Below that the cascade shelf, the charm anchor and the heaviest wall are all stacked on $700.
No magnet below spot. The book has not built a true floor yet, just defenses.
Above, $715 is a breakout node. Reclaim it and dealers chase price up toward $720 and the $740 ceiling instead.
Tradable Astronaut retweeted
Dropped my first written article inside AION this morning. The floor window, the liquidity turn, the confirmation checklist, and the names I am watching while it builds.
One of the names was $MRVL. A member paid for his terminal subscription off that one heads up. Day one of the article existing.
The threads left the timeline. The work got deeper, it just lives inside now.
Code QUANT, 30% off, ends Oct 31.
$SPY l $QQQ
"Next 5 sessions: average down 1.13%. Worst print, down 5.2%. Next 10 sessions: up 0.42%. Flat. Then it flips. 21 sessions out, median +3.31% with an 80% hit rate. 63 sessions out, median +4.77%, 80% hit."
"Seasonality says the air pocket is now. Positioning says it is dated Oct 20 to 23. The machine did not need the calendar to find it."
Mhm $QQQ
Even the calendar agrees with the book now.
$SPX in midterm years, from Oct 8 forward:
Next 5 sessions: average down 1.13%. Worst print, down 5.2%.
Next 10 sessions: up 0.42%. Flat.
Then it flips. 21 sessions out, median +3.31% with an 80% hit rate. 63 sessions out, median +4.77%, 80% hit.
That is the exact shape the dealer book has been drawing for three weeks. Soft pocket through late October, paid by year end.
Honest caveat, the sample is 5 midterm years and the terminal flags that itself. But the worst 63 session stretches on the board all started in windows that looked like this one.
Seasonality says the air pocket is now. Positioning says it is dated Oct 20 to 23. The machine did not need the calendar to find it.
Tradable Astronaut retweeted
My second article has gone live.
In this article I break down the current short term tail risks, my expectation on the coming months, and how I will be handling the week ahead.
For those on the inside, enjoy. 🤜🤛
Dropped my first written article inside AION this morning. The floor window, the liquidity turn, the confirmation checklist, and the names I am watching while it builds.
One of the names was $MRVL. A member paid for his terminal subscription off that one heads up. Day one of the article existing.
The threads left the timeline. The work got deeper, it just lives inside now.
Code QUANT, 30% off, ends Oct 31.
$SPY l $QQQ
Tradable Astronaut retweeted
Your last two weeks: watching red, checking the chart at 2am, wondering if you sell the low.
Our last two weeks: the drop we dated on Sep 24 playing out to the day. $QQQ down 7 to 10% by Oct 18 to 22, then the floor. Posted publicly, three weeks early.
$QQQ down 7%. $SOXX down 16%. $VIX up 37%.
The worst stretch of your year was sitting on a screen before it happened. So is the next move.
Members are reading the data right now. You are reading this.
Code QUANT, 30% off, dies Oct 31.
Your last two weeks: watching red, checking the chart at 2am, wondering if you sell the low.
Our last two weeks: the drop we dated on Sep 24 playing out to the day. $QQQ down 7 to 10% by Oct 18 to 22, then the floor. Posted publicly, three weeks early.
$QQQ down 7%. $SOXX down 16%. $VIX up 37%.
The worst stretch of your year was sitting on a screen before it happened. So is the next move.
Members are reading the data right now. You are reading this.
Code QUANT, 30% off, dies Oct 31.
Tradable Astronaut retweeted
Two weeks left on code QUANT. 30% off, ends October 31. 🎃
What changed since we announced it: market research reports from @tradableastro and @deepinference are now part of the Tradable Insights Community Discord.
The first one went out this week.
This is the lowest price the terminal will be. New members and trials.
You are becoming a quant.
