7+ years in markets. Flagged $60k as $BTC’s bottom. Called TSLA’s peak ~1% below it. Calculated gold’s peak months ahead within ~3.6%. NFA | DYOR.
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Joined August 2024
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4 months of correctly predicted price action so far.
Minor tweak: because Feb’s low was breached, the HTF MSB now sits at 82.8k. Break that level and the probability that we’re in a new uptrend rises above 90%.
$BTC #Bitcoin
$BTC HTF Update
As much as I’m a HTF bull, I must admit that the move from the February 6 low to the high 70s appears corrective. Therefore, it looks like the max pain scenario from here—for both bulls and bears—is more chop.
A month ago I flagged a possible expanding leading diagonal (see this post: teapaw.org/TraderJBx/status/20351…), and then we got a correction down to the March 29 low. Normally, this 1-2 is followed by a strong wave 3, but the move from March 29 to now has been too slow, too overlapping, too easy to get into, and has left far too much stops/liquidity behind. There are LTF impulses, but they feel forced, the corrections between them are excessively long, and when you zoom out the structure simply doesn’t look like a true impulse. It could very well be an inverted ABC.
If this read is correct, it becomes more probable that the C wave of this HTF expanded flat contains an extended wave 1, the advance from the February 6 low to the present is wave 4, and we still have a final downward wave 5 to complete (as shown in the attached chart and the right-hand chart in the quoted post). It remains to be seen whether wave 5 will sweep the $60k low (full impulse) or truncate. Either way, what follows should mark the true start of the next impulsive uptrend.
I have to admit this scenario would be perfect from both a sentiment and technical perspective:
1) Price first pumps above the February high to test/fill the 1D inefficiency (see this post: teapaw.org/TraderJBx/status/20445…). Bulls celebrate, call the correction over and new ATHs are coming… only to get rejected hard.
2) Price then delivers the final downward wave 5 of the expanded flat. Big players take all the liquidity below and shakes out retail.
3) At the lows, bears cheer and declare the “bear market” is back… only for price to find strong support and immediately begin the next uptrend.
4) Neither bulls nor bears get the outcome they want. The whole process can easily take considerably longer than expected, leaving both sides impatient, chopped out, and/or forced to exit positions.
The invalidation of this scenario is a clear impulsive HTF market structure break (from mid-air) above the previous HTF lower high: the $97.9k high of January 14.
#Bitcoin
On the LTF, notice how price stopped falling slightly below the April close and has remained close to it.
The ideal PA before the reversal would be more chop until eow, followed by one final quick sweep of the local low, then pump.
$BTC #Bitcoin
$BTC
One reason I’m not a fan of the deviation-below-$74.9k scenario is the importance of a key structural level: the April close. As shown on the right chart, this level acted as support in August and September. We tapped it almost perfectly yesterday and are already seeing a solid reaction. Closing multiple daily candles well below this level would be dangerous, as it could flip into resistance.
For this reason, it’s critical that bulls close today’s candle ideally above the April close. That would be the first step for a successful retest from above on the monthly timeframe (see left chart). Any temporary deviations below the level on the daily timeframe need to be quickly reclaimed.
#Bitcoin
$CRV
Taking its sweet time, but nothing has changed. Bullish RSI divergences have now also appeared on the 8h, 12h, and daily timeframes, and it's starting to outperform other coins.
Patience 🧘
#CurveFinance
$CRV ended up rejecting its first attempt to reclaim the range, so I’m now looking for a similar scenario to the one that played out at CVX’s bottom (quoted post): one final sweep of the previous weekly low— possibly retesting the gray demand zone—and then the move higher.
Bullish RSI divergences are forming on the 6h and all lower timeframes.
#CurveFinance
$BTC
Alright, the $74.9k level ended up being swept, officially invalidating the extension scenario. This opens the door to a new possibility: that all price action since late August is a large wave 4 (see right chart). While this remains possible, the duration, depth, and structure of the corrections so far lead me to assign it a lower probability than the alternative—that we're in a larger-degree wave 2 (see left chart).
The larger-degree wave 2 scenario is significantly more bullish, as it implies wave 3 is still ahead and could easily take us to new all-time highs.
#Bitcoin
$BTC
One month has passed since the warning at the local top about this correction. However, since we haven’t convincingly lost the $80k level, the extension scenario remains alive.
As a reminder, I currently have two wave counts in mind for the structure from the bottom:
1) The count shared in the left chart, where wave (v) is already complete and we are now in the circled wave ii. it would fit well as the correction from the local top is now –9.35% — the deepest so far since the bottom — and has lasted longer than wave (iv).
2) The count shared in the right chart, where we are still in wave (ii) of circled wave v, with invalidation at $74.9k.
Right now, it's a coin flip regarding probability. More price action is needed to confirm which wave count is correct, but the HTF compass still points north.
#Bitcoin
Not much to update. Still in wave (2), chopping sideways inside this range for over a year now, gray demand zone should hold. Patience until wave (3) starts.
The longer the consolidation, the bigger the ________.
$CVX #ConvexFinance
This has been going on for 4 months already: equities stuck sideways in a tight range while crypto has been pumping nicely.
Just wait until $BTC starts a proper expansion above ATHs. Stocks will look like a stablecoin compared to crypto.
Please help me report these impostors. Reminder: I’m only on X, and this is my only account. I’m not on Telegram, Discord, or any other platforms.
Beware of scammers.
$SILVER
7.5 months later, as expected, silver has retested the 2011 high and is now very close to the 1980 high ✅
The decline from the ATH looks like a textbook leading diagonal, fitting well as wave A of a zigzag (the most common corrective structure after a parabolic peak). If this wave count is correct, we should see a corrective dead-cat bounce in the coming months before the HTF downtrend resumes.
This scenario is invalidated by a breach of the ATH.
$XAG
$SILVER
If you had gradually taken profits on strength—as I warned back in January—your average exit would have been near the top, far better than where we are today ✅
The drop is accelerating faster than I anticipated. Because of that, I'm no longer sure about holding the UltraShort ETF long-term. I'll take profits on it when silver reaches the gray zone marked on the chart, confluent with the 1980 and 2011 highs.
TraderJB retweeted
I’ve noticed many people on CT are focusing on $ETH printing a bearish engulfing candle on monthly TF, but no one seems to mention that, from a PA perspective, price is simply retesting monthly BB $2016–$2470 from above
Retesting previously broken resistance levels is healthy price action and part of a sustainable continuation higher
$CRV ended up rejecting its first attempt to reclaim the range, so I’m now looking for a similar scenario to the one that played out at CVX’s bottom (quoted post): one final sweep of the previous weekly low— possibly retesting the gray demand zone—and then the move higher.
Bullish RSI divergences are forming on the 6h and all lower timeframes.
#CurveFinance
$CVX
Extended the accumulation range as shown on the chart. It's taking its time, but I still view this move as nothing more than a deviation below the range until proven otherwise.
Given the first attempt to return inside failed, one final sweep would create the perfect setup for panic and potential capitulation. If that happens and price quickly reclaims the low, I’d love to see an impulsive move back into the range—exactly like CRV delivered recently.
#ConvexFinance
$BTC
One reason I’m not a fan of the deviation-below-$74.9k scenario is the importance of a key structural level: the April close. As shown on the right chart, this level acted as support in August and September. We tapped it almost perfectly yesterday and are already seeing a solid reaction. Closing multiple daily candles well below this level would be dangerous, as it could flip into resistance.
For this reason, it’s critical that bulls close today’s candle ideally above the April close. That would be the first step for a successful retest from above on the monthly timeframe (see left chart). Any temporary deviations below the level on the daily timeframe need to be quickly reclaimed.
#Bitcoin
Y, como todo un campeón, $CRV cierra el día de vuelta dentro del rango. La zona de demanda verde ahora está apropiadamente retesteada ✅
#CurveFinance
$CRV
Oct 1st: “Mentally prepared for more chop” ✅
Two months of chop so far, range low still on the table and RSI trending lower. The ideal scenario to wrap up this correction would be a sweep of the range low (properly testing the green zone), widespread panic, and the 12h RSI entering oversold territory—ideally with a bullish divergence.
I have additional limit bids set at the range low in case this plays out.
#CurveFinance
“This time I got ya” — Brian O’Conner.
The first trade was invalidated, but as explained in the trades post, the yellow one is automatically activated. The internal impulse may be part of an inverted flat or something, but the overall structure now looks like a 1-2.
$XRP
“Ask any trader. Any real EW trader. It doesn’t matter if the impulse holds by a penny or ten grand. Holding is holding.”
— Dominic Toretto
$XRP
$CVX
The breach of the Oct 15th low means we are still correcting in wave (2), which is now similar in duration to wave (1). At the local top, a follower asked what I would do if I didn’t already have a bag, and my answer was to wait for a correction first. That correction has now arrived.
Let this be a reminder: no matter how good the price action looks, resistance levels are for selling or shorting — never buy out of FOMO.
#ConvexFinance
$CVX
Range high reached ✅ This took a lot of patience, but here we are again.
Above current levels sits the 10/10 supply zone, which is expected to be a heavy one. Odds favor consolidation around or below it before a full breakout.
I hope my previous posts helped you see that #ConvexFinance wasn’t over and avoid panic selling at the lows.
ethereum:0xd533a949740bb3306d119cc777fa900ba034cd52
With today’s drop, my wave count is now confirmed and shown on the left chart. In short, we have a large 1-2 structure from June’s bottom at $0.17, similar to CVX. As long as this level holds, wave (3) is ahead and should be more powerful than wave (1). This lines up with the $0.33–0.45 area acting as heavy supply—which is why we’ve been correcting inside it for two months and are now seeing a rejection that flushes late longs and creates panic.
Based on the wave count, price could bottom anywhere above $0.17, but from a pure price-action perspective, we shouldn’t see acceptance back inside the range where we spent most of 2026. As the right chart shows, we just tapped the high of that range almost perfectly in what looks like a retest of the breakout, and the reaction so far has been constructive.
It might be time to start looking into an astronaut suit.
#CurveFinance
Filled ✅ Faster than expected.
$CRV #CurveFinance
$CRV
Oct 1st: “Mentally prepared for more chop” ✅
Two months of chop so far, range low still on the table and RSI trending lower. The ideal scenario to wrap up this correction would be a sweep of the range low (properly testing the green zone), widespread panic, and the 12h RSI entering oversold territory—ideally with a bullish divergence.
I have additional limit bids set at the range low in case this plays out.
#CurveFinance