7+ years in markets. Flagged $60k as $BTCβs bottom. Called TSLAβs peak ~1% below it. Calculated goldβs peak months ahead within ~3.6%. NFA | DYOR.
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Joined August 2024
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TraderJB retweeted
Iβve noticed many people on CT are focusing on $ETH printing a bearish engulfing candle on monthly TF, but no one seems to mention that, from a PA perspective, price is simply retesting monthly BB $2016β$2470 from above
Retesting previously broken resistance levels is healthy price action and part of a sustainable continuation higher
TraderJB retweeted
$Eth
I think not many are counting this scenario.
A vertical accumulation here would be max pain for all the sidelined money, which would send us even higher.
We had the same price action above the Mid Regression Band in 2017 and 2020 before the final parabola on $ETH.
So I wouldnβt put this out of the picture.
TraderJB retweeted
Great reminderπ€
Iβd also add that using a stop-loss isnβt just a recommendation, itβs a basic rule when trading futures, especially with high leverage
Spot positions are different. These are assets the market canβt take away from you unless you decide to sell your coins yourself. Thatβs why Iβm more of a spot accumulation believer
10/10 last year clearly showed that devastating single-day dumps can happen in todayβs market, and the saddest part is that these actions still go unpunished
Thatβs why everyone in this market is responsible for their own deposit, and everyone should understand that. Our job is to preserve and grow our capital while keeping losses to a minimum
TraderJB retweeted
I haven't done much EW in the past 6 months but I agree with this $ETH count.
We currently have proof that the first and third wave had momentum. I can measure momentum through my Hypothesis System.
We are now waiting for the 5th.
I believe this happens rather sooner than later since the 2nd wave didn't have much retracement.
My hypothesis system also flagged several buys very close to the bottom. Now we just ride π€
$ETH
I think itβs too soon to label it, but this is the wave count I have in mind right now, and itβs subject to change. I can see a world where the equal lows of wave (iv) are not swept and wave (v) extends alongside BTC.
It would be the perfect market deception, given that almost everyone has their eyes on those equal lows, including me.
#Ethereum
TraderJB retweeted
If this is the "shortest" and "weakest" "bear market" you've seen then 126k wasn't the "cycle top" you think it was...it's really that simple.
TraderJB retweeted
[ $CRV ]
Curve has the potential to close second weekly candle inside the macro range. This would cause acceptance and next logical place would be to jump over Creek (in Wyckoff terms).
Creek is an area with an abundance of liquidity where chart moves easier up due to un-swept highs in that area (which act as magnets)
Crossing this creek would not be in a straight line, but it should be way quicker than reaching the macro low.
All that being said, minimal target would be at $7, which is the reason why I bought CRV in the first place. Entry at 19 cents
TraderJB retweeted
After sharp declines like the one we saw this week, itβs common to expect consolidation or ranging before the next trend. But thatβs not always how it plays out.
When a corrective pattern of any degree completes, thereβs typically no room left for additional waves β unless the correction evolves into a complex combination. Look at January 2024 (left chart): after a sharp -21% correction, $BTC immediately exploded +91% in one of the cleanest impulses Iβve ever seen.
Yes, further consolidation is still possible here, especially if this downward wave isnβt finished yetβ¦ but this is the second time Iβm saying it: donβt get caught off guard.
#Bitcoin
TraderJB retweeted
Strong hands are buying bitcoin:native.
Bottoms are formed when profit taking slows and conviction buyers step in. This setup looks similar to what we saw during 2022.
The largest increase in BTC held by conviction buyers occurred when BTC dropped to $60k in January.
TraderJB retweeted
Exactly as mentioned by @TraderJBx below, the MVRV Z-Score indicator is telling a similar story for #Bitcoin.
No overextension above 5 (conservative) or even 7, like every previous bull market top.
The highest reading we got was in December 2024, and it has been correcting since then, with no guarantee it goes as low as previous bear market bottoms (no extension to the top, so no extension to the bottom?).
As we've mentioned several times already, in hindsight, this long period might end up being interpreted as a larger corrective move that started in Dec 24/Jan 25, taking the shape of an expanded flat - basically flat, sideways PA, but driving everyone crazy in the meantime with big swings while building this pattern.
TraderJB retweeted
#Bitcoin Indeed a good way to illustrate this, is with the NUPL indicator.
We did not touch the Euphoria/Greed area yet this cycle, so again no guarantee that we go and touch the capitulation area.
TraderJB retweeted
Lots of $BTC Elliott wave counts out there, but the only one that makes sense to me is the one that ties $ALTS picture with it
And to me it is a clear completed 1-5 impulse and ABC, yet to be confirmed, meaning we're moving into a very, very powerful impulse next, which also makes the most sense since now we're finally in a macro environment VERY suitable for risk-on assets.
For historic count, see this article (teapaw.org/TraderJBx/status/20781β¦)
