Formerly Vance 2028 Enthusiast | Patriot 🇺🇸
Ohio
Joined July 2020
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FINAL UPDATE!
Honestly, I have no idea how many of these races are gonna go, so I'm going off my gut for a lot of them. I can't believe the Midterms are almost over, but I kept all my predictions on the same thread to see how my opinions changed over time.
Ya'll can clown on me if I'm wrong, but this is genuinely how I feel. Feel free to ask questions in the replies, and I'll get to all of them.
Ohio State Enjoyer 🇺🇸 retweeted
Two things can be true:
A) DeSantis wouldn't have won in 2024; muh abortion was still too big of an issue, it would've sunk his campaign
B) It's not going to be as major of an issue in the 2028 cycle
#DESANTIS2028 seems like a good move...
Anyone calling for Trump to resign or be impeached is a short-sighted idiot. Do y’all really think the Dems will stop there? Given the chance, they would neuter the admin and then we’d really be screwed for 2028.
I’m not the biggest fan of Trump anymore, but he’s our last line of defense and people need to accept it and get ready for 2028.
Ohio State Enjoyer 🇺🇸 retweeted
This is beyond disgraceful and something I NEVER could’ve imagined happening. How and when did this country magically revert to 1990’s-level polarization??? These “Republicans” oughta be ashamed of themselves, throwing away this country’s future because of temporarily expensive gas. When Dems ruin this country and destroy everything they care about, I’ll be there to rub it in their faces and remind them day after day that their incredibly short-sighted material wants is what led to it happening. Fucking subhuman scum.
My initial read on data at the county level, excluding major urban and suburban counties (worse), is that 15-20% of reliable Rs voted D practically across the national map.
In Walker County, TX, in an election with over 10mm votes, I’d have expected a margin for Abbott around 40% even in a left pendulum year, 8,800 margin on 22,000 votes.
Margin was 4,900 (23%) on the same number.
I hope everyone’s anger votes result in satisfaction for living under their new Democrat masters practically everywhere in the country.
Ohio State Enjoyer 🇺🇸 retweeted
The best part about this Blue Tsunami is that it got rid of some awful R's and we can come back with actual good candidates.
I second this. DeSantis is the guy if he keeps focusing on affordability and kitchen table issues.
Right now, we’re looking an entirely different Ron DeSantis than we saw in 2024. Back then, he ran an awkward and ill-advised campaign based almost entirely on culture war issues. Today, he’s polished and focusing on issues like the economy and efficient government. I supported DeSantis back then, but it’s clear to me now that he wasn’t man for the moment back then, but very much is now. DeSantis 2028, now more than ever.
Ohio State Enjoyer 🇺🇸 retweeted
Important chart from Axios: Democrats aggressively avoided talking about ICE and immigration during the general election. It was a way to rile up primary voters and that was it.
Immigration wasn't talked about this cycle, and among voters who said it was critical to their vote, Republicans won easily.
Republicans using yesterday's disaster to push amnesty are deliberately avoiding the real causes of defeat to surrender to the left on one of the party's only strengths.
Ohio State Enjoyer 🇺🇸 retweeted
I called yesterday’s results 11 months ago.
Everything that unfolded since then only confirmed my suspicion that we were going to experience first a Blue Wave, then a Blue Tsunami, and finally a catastrophic extinction-level event that would swamp us in states no one even had on their radar.
AND YET, despite everything that has just happened, what I wrote here back in January is still true today:
“The simple fact is Democrats are the overwhelming favorite because of secular trends that largely have nothing to do with whatever Right-wing civil war will be unfolding on X at the end of the year.”
When Democrats win the House of Representatives in 11 months everyone on the Right is going to immediately revert back to endless blackpilling, doomposting, and circular fitting squad behavior. It will be the biggest histrionic convention on the internet of the year as everyone advances their own ideological pet theory for why the GOP lost and why their specific niche ideological worldview must rise up to replace the ineffective GOP establishment.
Of course, some of these critiques (and proposed solutions) might actually be more right than wrong when examining them on a more granular level. But the general zeitgeist that will be in full swing between mid November and Christmas will most certainly be wrong, no matter how many viral tweets it produces.
The simple fact is Democrats are the overwhelming favorite because of secular trends that largely have nothing to do with whatever Right-wing civil war will be unfolding on X at the end of the year.
>Midterm elections have almost always favored the party out of power for the past century
>Every midterm election for the last 24 years has resulted in the party that doesn’t control the White House either flipping the House or expanding their existing their majority
>The coalition shifts of the last decade have produced an extremely high-propensity Democratic Party who routinely show up in disproportionate numbers during special elections and off-year cycles
>Redistricting has thus far been close to a wash, and if Democrats gerrymander Virginia (as they are favored to do), they’ll actually come out on top of the 2025/2026 phase of the redistricting wars. This redistricting advantage can be undone after the 2030 census and if the VRA gets struck down, but it still gives Democrats a boost in 2026
All four of these things combine to give Democrats probably an 80-90% chance of flipping the House this year. None of it means that we’re back to the End of History or the Thousand Year Libtard Reich that everyone was predicting back in 2013.
This isn’t meant to be taken as an understatement of how bad such an event would be. Don’t get me wrong, it’s still a disaster. But it’s a disaster that’s more structural than ideological.
Of course, that won’t stop people from projecting the results out into eternity anyway, but some perspective is important here.
Ohio State Enjoyer 🇺🇸 retweeted
Dear Republican Senate and House “Leadership,”
No, the polls were not wrong. You were. Even with record amounts of money at your disposal, you managed to get absolutely annihilated.
You have been embarrassingly weak and more afraid of governing conservatively than of disappointing the voters who put us in office. Instead of standing firm on our principles, you have governed out of fear, continually knelt to the moderates in our conference (who all got crushed last night anyway), and discarded conservatives like me who warned of last night’s results.
Please do us all a favor and step aside so new leadership can take a truly conservative direction, with the courage to do the things we were elected to do.
Thank you for your attention to this matter.
— Congressman Greg Steube
At least Vance is smartening up.
One of the things the data analysts on our side obsessed over was "composition"—whether the electorate looked close enough to 2024 for Republicans to win. And despite polls that showed a Democrat blowout, the data kept on telling us the same story: in some states turnout was merely OK, in other states it was downright amazing, and in no state was it catastrophic. There was a genuine sense of optimism on our team: our people were showing up.
So, I asked the smartest data guy I know, does that mean we're going to shock the world? "No," he told me. "We might do better than the polls suggest. But the data is telling us that a lot of Trump/Vance 2024 voters are pissed and planning to vote for the other guys. Our voters are turning out, but they may not vote for us."
Well, that looks prophetic now. Our voters did show up. In Florida, for example, the electorate was 9 points more Republican than Democrat, just a couple points worse than 2024. Undoubtedly there were places we could have done better on turnout. But the main problem is not turnout. The main problem is that many people who voted for Trump/Vance in 2024 voted for Democrats in 2026.
There will be a lot of infighting and arguing over what happened and why that is. One of the pollsters I really respect told me that our economic messaging wasn’t sharp enough down the stretch. I’m sure that’s true.
But the real reason we lost is obvious to almost everyone.
Another pollster—one of the smartest people I know in politics, told me yesterday we’d lose the generic ballot by 13 points. I felt negative going into Tuesday, but even I was shocked by this. In his polling, he saw that a lot of Trump 2024 voters were angry and planning to vote for Democrats. He asked those voters who had abandoned us what would cause them to come back on our team. The top four answers, accounting for nearly all of the responses were:
1) End the war
2) Focus on cost of living/inflation
3) Put America First
4) Change our relationship to Israel
Our voters showed up. And the above four reasons are why many of them voted for Democrats. This is according to a pollster who nailed the results. While many spent Monday attacking Rachel Campos Duffy for calling for a diplomatic resolution to the conflict, it turns out her political advice was sound. (She’s also a great person.)
In the next few months, there's going to be a lot of gaslighting. Expect to hear any number of establishment politicians say the solution to our woes is amnesty. I'm open to the idea that we should change enforcement—by focusing more on businesses that hire illegal labor, for instance. But anyone pushing amnesty is lying to you.
The reason we lost is the war. The president himself said so last night.
If you'd like to argue it was worth it, that losing the Senate for the next 6 years was worth it, then do so. Argue it was a worthwhile cost to pay. Agree or disagree, that's at least honest.
But everyone knows why we lost. And any honest conversation about where we go from here must start there.
I remain hopeful about our country. To the people who are pissed off and want to say, “I told you so”: you’re right, you did tell us so. Take that energy into electing Republicans who share your worldview. To the people who are just pissed at the results, you should be. Let’s take that anger and get back to the work of saving our country.
This is how I feel. If we can’t have hope then we have nothing.
Ohio State Enjoyer 🇺🇸 retweeted
Lots of unhelpful dooming going on around here today.
Regroup. Get it together. Move forward.
I will say this. The GOP has hit rock bottom. Blexas happened, there was a blue tsunami, and Democrats made inroads in a lot of Safe R states. But we can only go up from here. Everyone needs to take time to calm down and figure out how to pick up the pieces from here. There will be a chance to win all this back, and it starts with getting out of this stupid war and getting the economy back on track.
I think my gut was wrong. And I’m sure Vance ain’t running in 2028, so…
FINAL UPDATE!
Honestly, I have no idea how many of these races are gonna go, so I'm going off my gut for a lot of them. I can't believe the Midterms are almost over, but I kept all my predictions on the same thread to see how my opinions changed over time.
Ya'll can clown on me if I'm wrong, but this is genuinely how I feel. Feel free to ask questions in the replies, and I'll get to all of them.
I admit it. I was very wrong. I doubt Vance is running in 2028. I think I’ll be taking a break from posting for the time being.
FINAL UPDATE!
Honestly, I have no idea how many of these races are gonna go, so I'm going off my gut for a lot of them. I can't believe the Midterms are almost over, but I kept all my predictions on the same thread to see how my opinions changed over time.
Ya'll can clown on me if I'm wrong, but this is genuinely how I feel. Feel free to ask questions in the replies, and I'll get to all of them.
When I voted today, 75% of the people in there were white boomers in my Harris +60 super black precinct. Hopefully a good sign of things to come in Ohio!
