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Trueo × DefiLlama
We’re proud to announce that Crypto’s analytics powerhouse is now a distribution partner for Trueo!
Our prediction markets are live on @DefiLlama dashboards, bringing markets on risk, revenue, AUM, and other metrics directly to the users tracking the data.
SECURITY WATCH 🚨
SWELL DAO ADMIN KEYS FOR SWETH AND RSWETH APPEAR COMPROMISED, WITH ATTACKERS RAISING NAV BY UP TO 1% PER HOUR AND FOUR MALICIOUS UPGRADE CONTRACTS DEPLOYED THAT COULD STEAL ~2,500 ETH, PER SPREEK.
US PULLS TROOPS FROM MIDDLE EAST POSTS 🛢️
@coinbureau reports the US is pulling some troops from Middle East posts as Trump weighs new action in Iran, per NBC. Brent hit $114 after February's strikes. Trueo has Brent at $120+ in 2026 at 42% Yes.
trueo.com/en/market/0xce4f9c…
This is CONCERNING.
The US is pulling some troops and diplomats out of its Middle East posts as Trump weighs new military action in Iran, per NBC.
We've seen this before.
In January and February, the US pulled troops from its Middle East bases as Trump weighed strikes on Iran.
On February 28, the US and Israel struck Iran.
Here's how markets reacted:
1. Brent crude jumped 27% in a week, from $73 to $93 a barrel
2. Brent closed as high as $114 on May 4, up 57% from before the strikes
3. Bitcoin fell to about $63,000 on the day of the strikes, then rallied nearly 18% in four days
Brent is still up 49% since the war began.
Meanwhile, Trump has said the US "will not be attacking Iran" before the November 3 midterms.
NEW GRADUATED MARKET 🎓
Will Spark Finance savings modules be exploited before January 1, 2027?
Odds: 1%
trueo.com/en/market/0xc13542…
Russian President Vladimir Putin has agreed to resume US-mediated peace talks with Ukraine as soon as next month, the Kremlin said, after Putin met US envoy Steve Witkoff in Washington's latest push to stop Europe's bloodiest conflict since World War Two reut.rs/4jzOfjq
PEACE TALKS WATCH 🕊️
THE KREMLIN SAYS PUTIN AGREED TO RESUME US-MEDIATED PEACE TALKS WITH UKRAINE AS SOON AS NEXT MONTH, AFTER MEETING US ENVOY STEVE WITKOFF.
RUSSIA-UKRAINE PEACE BY 2030 ODDS: 46%
trueo.com/en/market/0x50fcc4…
AI IPO WATCH 🤖
ANTHROPIC COULD MAKE ITS IPO FILING PUBLIC AS SOON AS FRIDAY, WITH A LISTING THAT COULD SURPASS SPACEX'S AS THE LARGEST EVER.
ANTHROPIC IPO IN 2026 ODDS: 76%
trueo.com/en/market/0x77e1ef…
SECURITY WATCH 🚨
RAILWAY SAYS AN UNAUTHORIZED THIRD PARTY MAY HAVE DECRYPTED CUSTOMER ENVIRONMENT VARIABLES, URGES ALL USERS TO ROLL API KEYS AND SECRETS, AND PAUSES ALL DEPLOYMENTS.
An urgent notice from the Railway team
blog.railway.com/p/security-…
Trueo retweeted
Wow, such a cool development by @Trueo_ x @DefiLlama
At minimum, very interesting experimentation for PMs to bet on protocol revenue + protocol exploits.
There is issue with hackers/exploiters abusing these PMs before doing damage via the actual hack, but that could also be signal of something sinister about to take place.
Really interested to see this play out more.
🦙 defillama.com/predictions
Trueo retweeted
@aeroxyz launch today! ✈️
@Trueo_ x @DefiLlama rev+exploit PMs live 🦙
@mezzanine_fi risk tranched vaults live soon 🏦
@DeriveXYZ V3 just did $1.07B notional in a week 🐎
@puffer_unifi x Google Cloud will run infra on Eth
ethereum:native inflation is <1% since the Merge 🔥
Ethereum and its builders are thriving ✊
Trueo retweeted
Love the idea - prediction markets are the best insurance.
Biggest limitation is liquidity. Holds same for Polymarket and Kalshi. Liquidity is concentrated on a few big markets and gambling (sports bets). Often not enough to build proper insurance cover.
Still a great idea, maybe this works well for Aave, Morpho, Uniswap. Big DeFi apps could supply treasury into these markets and get paid continuously - and use these payouts to fund audits/security improvements/bounties.
You can now trade protocol revenue and exploit odds. We're partnering with Trueo to launch new prediction markets that settle based on DefiLlama data.
Revenue Markets
If you follow the revenue meta, you can now trade that directly on Trueo. We launched markets for Hyperliquid, Pump, Aero, Uniswap, Collector Crypt, and Papertrade revenue.
Exploit Markets
Hedge against exploit risk by trading the odds of total DeFi hacks and exploits of specific protocols. We have markets for whether there will be exploits of Aave and Morpho this month. We also have weekly and monthly markets for the size of the largest hack.
Other Onchain Metrics
Robinhood Chain RWA mcap, Robinhood Chain DEX volume, and whether Solana or Base ends the week with higher TVL.
defillama.com/predictions
ZEC WHALES LEAN IN 🐋
@lookonchain reports two whales opened 10x longs on 29,798 ZEC ($37.57M) over the past 15 hours. Trueo has ZEC flipping SOL before SOL flips ETH at 77% Yes.
trueo.com/en/market/0x92382f…
Whales are going long on $ZEC!
Over the past 15 hours, 2 whales opened 10x longs on a total of 29,798 $ZEC ($37.57M).
hypurrscan.io/address/0x30af…
hypurrscan.io/address/0xbf73…
TRENDING WATCH 🔥
COLLECTOR CRYPT TO CLEAR $15M IN OCTOBER REVENUE? TRUEO HAS IT AT 93%, UP FROM 62% AT LAUNCH.
DEFILLAMA SHOWS $12.8M BOOKED THROUGH OCT 20, WITH A MONTH-HIGH $1.67M ON OCT 20 ALONE.
trueo.com/en/market/0x5f70eb…
NEW GRADUATED MARKET 🎓
Will any of USDE, USDS, USD1, or USDG depeg in 2026?
Odds: 11%
trueo.com/en/market/0x1707d3…
Trueo retweeted
This integration is massive.
@DefiLlama is the first major market curator on Trueo.
Why is this a big deal
Distribution. Aka eyeballs.
DefiLlama is the most widely adopted analytics platform in crypto, they cover everything onchain.
With this partnership, Trueo’s markets are integrated directly into the dashboards that are so essential to onchain research.
Interested in Hyperliquid’s metrics?
You can now see the real-time probabilities of them hitting certain milestones this week, month, or quarter right next to the data you’re consuming.
Curious about protocol exploit risks?
Find the odds of a protocol being hacked as you research it.
Want to hedge that risk? Our markets can help cover some of that downside.
DefiLlama users include degens, businesses, institutions, and even governments!
Their newsletter alone has 33K subs.
I envision a future where prediction markets are embedded into virtually every news, media, and data platform.
This partnership is a leap in that direction.
Long live Trueo. Long Live DefiLlama ✌️
Trueo × DefiLlama
We’re proud to announce that Crypto’s analytics powerhouse is now a distribution partner for Trueo!
Our prediction markets are live on @DefiLlama dashboards, bringing markets on risk, revenue, AUM, and other metrics directly to the users tracking the data.
AI SAFETY WATCH ⚠️
OPENAI SAYS ITS AI AGENTS WEAKENED AN INTERNAL MONITORING SYSTEM DURING ROUTINE CODING TASKS, WITH ONE AGENT REMOVING A MONITORING TOOL.
AI AGENTS HACK AI BY 2027 ODDS: 70%
trueo.com/en/market/0x7bd2bf…
OpenAI says its AI agents weakened internal monitoring system reut.rs/3WE813x reut.rs/3WE813x
THE BLOCK: ZachXBT said an institutional entity is suspected to have lost around $2.84 million to a North Korea-linked hacker on Oct. 8 on BSC. The attacker deposited 1111.2 ethereum:native into Tornado Cash on Tuesday, and then bridged all funds from Ethereum to Tron via USDT0.
"Within minutes, the funds moved through intermediary addresses to Chinese OTCs, likely to evade any potential Tether freeze," ZachXBT wrote.
