All value. No advice | Stock Newsletter https://teapaw.org/t.co/9pEi00XIOe | all write-ups https://teapaw.org/t.co/x5vF9ws8qv | HoldCo https://teapaw.org/t.co/SMAxPD6QVx
Joined July 2014
- Tweets10.8K
- Following924
- Followers12.7K
- Likes12K
Seeing a handful of companies absolutely slash guidance recently...
$GIL moving from $4.65-4.75 EPS to $3.70-3.80 with only 1 quarter to go in the year is a pretty sharp turn in outlook...
Here's our HoldCo progress since 2019
We divested ~$4m revenue in early 2026 which is why run-rate revenue not growing much compared with 2025
(will leave this up for a little while)
Don’t see this often (ever?)
From $MNRO 10-Q (book value is over $18):
"during the second quarter of 2027, we experienced a decline in our market capitalization as a result of a decrease in our stock price. Our stock price has a history of volatility, however, given the decrease was sustained throughout the quarter, we viewed this event as a triggering event and performed a quantitative analysis of the fair value of the Company’s single reporting unit as of September 26, 2026 which resulted in an estimated fair value that exceeded its carrying value, including goodwill."
PSA: actively looking for a small, public “Berkshire-like” company with cash or assets :)
I already own a handful of high quality private companies that should compound for years to come, would love to find our “Berkshire” to bring them public
Hit me up if you find anything
In 1958, a company called Sanborn Map traded at $45 a share.
Its investment portfolio alone was worth $65 a share.
So you could buy $65 of stocks and bonds for $45 and get a map business thrown in for free.
A 28-year-old Warren Buffett put 35% of his partnership into it, joined the board and pushed them to unlock the portfolio.
Same playbook works today.
You just need to find those stocks.
$TFC CEO with another sizable insider buy…
New CEO, first bout of insider buying in years, discount to bank peers, etc.
Seems interesting…
Great arguments, and agreed the fundamental trends are downright bad
The stock is basically an “option” absent a legit plan to turn around performance
Tho should be fairly uncorrelated outcome to overall market and incentives for a sale are there
I own small amount of MNRO common and some call spreads (maybe 75bps total exposure w/ 6:1 payoff at $20 sale price)
Wouldn’t recommend making this a large/core holding, but still a place for this type of bet in the portfolio… just my 2c
I have no horse in the race, but I don't get why $MNRO bulls are so surprised by the market's reaction to a quarter as shitty as this one, especially after Monro brought in a “turnaround specialist” and closed a bunch of underperforming stores.
By now, I don't think anyone disputes that the company is in play, with Icahn and Gabelli pushing for a sale. That said, I'd guess Mavis is still digesting the Pep Boys acquisition, and there aren't all that many buyers willing and able to pay up for a deal like this.
With interest expenses set to rise further in 2027, net debt rising, and operating performance this poor, it seems potential buyers can afford to wait a lot longer than Monro can. And that's hardly the position you want to be negotiating from.
Lastly, correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't buy the hard-asset downside protection argument either. Sure, they own some of their store real estate, but its value doesn't come close to covering what the market is valuing the company at today.
I think there's a decent chance a transaction happens, which is why I'm following the situation. But until there's some sign of an operational turnaround, the bet seems pretty binary to me.
So I wanted to see if there's something I'm overlooking, or if you're simply more willing than I am to take the risk of "no deal."
“Cyclicals are like blackjack: stay in the game too long and it’s bound to take back all your profit.”
Peter Lynch
$BSX with one of the more intense re-ratings I've seen in a while... 25x median P/E to 14x in just a few months
Activist idea:
$MAT trades at $15 and is down 30% over 5yrs (earnings hammered with tariffs, supply chain, etc.)
3 top holders pushing for a sale
CEO just left to join SKYD
Authentic Brands and Zuru both rumored to be interested (L Catterton approached them 2 years ago too)
Hmm...
I've spent maybe 5 minutes on $EVC at this point... for the long-time followers, why did the media segment go from making $38-40m to losing money over the past few years?
Revenue down, but doesn't seem enough to move profitability that much?
Set your calendars for 12 AM (??) ET on Nov 11th
$KBR spinco presentation and the launch of "Trinzic"
Auto suppliers getting crushed over the past 3 months
Entire "auto value chain" out of favor right now... suppliers, dealers, OEMs, etc.
Flagstar $FLG probably outside my "circle of competence" but can't help looking...
Cut FY27 EPS guidance from $1.65 to $0.90 (ouch) and pushed out to FY28 (because higher rates?)
$60bn loan book with half of it in questionable CRE/MF loans concentrated in NYC (former NYCB), another ~third in growing C&I loan book
Efficiency ratio ugly
$10 stock with $15/sh TBV = 0.67x
Maybe a value trap?
