I’m interested in post bankruptcy, NAV, and undervalued micro and nano cap stocks. Margin of safety over everything. I write about cheap stocks.
Joined August 2023
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I worked third shift in a factory since high school.
Found a book at a local thrift store called The Intelligent Investor.
Started reading 10-Ks on my lunch break, waiting for my bandmates to show up for practice and on my free time.
Launched a newsletter to cover cheap stocks no one was talking about.
Quit my job just a few days ago to focus on this full time.
This feels surreal. The internet is a powerful thing.
Can't wait to see what kind of stocks I can uncover now that I am at this full time.
Lee Roach retweeted
You thought I was gone? Nah. Locked in. Ran the method. Now we throw caviar off the boat. Blessing those that bless us.
Elevate 💯
You faded the ODP playbook? Brokie 😹
Lee Roach retweeted
Tax-loss selling is starting early this year. Earlier than I've seen in years.
Millions of investors are dumping stocks right now for one reason: taxes.
Not earnings. Not guidance. Not fundamentals.
That forced selling is pushing good companies below what they're actually worth.
Here's the mistake almost everyone makes when hunting for these bargains:
They screen for the biggest losers of the year.
Wrong number.
Someone who bought in 2019 might still be sitting on a gain. They have nothing to harvest. They're not selling.
The number that matters is how far a stock trades below this year's average purchase price, its year-to-date VWAP.
That tells you how many holders are underwater right now, and how much selling pressure is still coming.
Big gap below YTD VWAP = lots of trapped holders = more forced selling = bigger dislocation.
I built a screener to find exactly these setups.
Over the next few weeks I'll be sharing the best ideas it surfaces.
Follow along.
taxlossseason.com
Definitely following this account
Tax-loss selling is starting early this year. Earlier than I've seen in years.
Millions of investors are dumping stocks right now for one reason: taxes.
Not earnings. Not guidance. Not fundamentals.
That forced selling is pushing good companies below what they're actually worth.
Here's the mistake almost everyone makes when hunting for these bargains:
They screen for the biggest losers of the year.
Wrong number.
Someone who bought in 2019 might still be sitting on a gain. They have nothing to harvest. They're not selling.
The number that matters is how far a stock trades below this year's average purchase price, its year-to-date VWAP.
That tells you how many holders are underwater right now, and how much selling pressure is still coming.
Big gap below YTD VWAP = lots of trapped holders = more forced selling = bigger dislocation.
I built a screener to find exactly these setups.
Over the next few weeks I'll be sharing the best ideas it surfaces.
Follow along.
taxlossseason.com
How can Bill Ackman claim that $META has no net debt? I think you need to factor in all the off balance sheet leases liabilities here. My math says that when these leases kick on it will consume 20% of cash from operations. And then new capex commitments should be probably in the range of $200 billion per year going forward. Free cash flow in 2027 will be deep in the red.
.@PershingSquare CEO @BillAckman says Meta is incredibly undervalued. The stock rose after hours on earnings and then fell more than 6% today. He calls that short-term traders reacting while the business accelerates. Few investors explain exactly why they own something and hold through the noise the way Ackman does.
"Meta has an incredibly strong balance sheet. They've got $80 billion in cash on the balance sheet. They have no net leverage. They could finance whatever they want to do with a turn or two of financial leverage and remain a very strong investment-grade company.
I think we're in a world in which you cannot look at the day one trading of a stock after earnings because of how levered market participants are and how short-term they are. The stock was up when I went to sleep on the flight. It was up something like 5%. And when I checked in before this interview, it was down 6.5%. These are just short-term traders moving the stock around.
This is a business that is accelerating. Meta is extremely well positioned in democratizing the use of agents with this product. They've proven that AI is helping them accelerate their business, and this remains an incredibly undervalued stock, and that's why we own it."
Pissed my pants in a lawn chair outside a valve manufacturer in Peoria today. 0.4x book, net cash, one customer is the Navy.
Couldn't leave. I was counting trucks.
Not an accident. A channel check.
Outbound shipments up 3x since August. Then I followed the second-shift forklift guy to a bar called Rusty's. Bought him four Busch Lights.
His name is Dale. They're all named Dale.
Beer five, Dale leans in. Says he heard management's bringing in consultants. Cutting 200 jobs. "Focusing on shareholders now, whatever that means."
I pissed myself again. Right there on the barstool. Dale didn't notice. Dale was crying.
Restructuring. Margin expansion. A buyback the size of Rusty's bar tab.
I told Dale everything would be fine. I meant for me.
My jeans, like the capital allocation strategy, are now laser-focused on returning liquidity.
Oh wow it appears that X just launched a competing AI chatbot to Muse. It appears that all this AI stuff is becoming a commodity. These capex shitcos going to have some real problems soon.
It is so hilarious how $META is raising equity to not only pump more money into failing Muse but also so Zuckerberg can pay his tax bill in California. Socializing Zuck's tax bill from common shareholders is so funny. I have never even seen this kind of move from some of the worst shitcos in microcap land. What a hilarious thing. Growth investors are so funny.
The last time the economy broke, this company had the best years in its history.
From 2009 through 2011, banks were failing and home prices were collapsing. Meanwhile, one subsidiary of this little-known company was printing money. Over those three years, the parent’s share of that subsidiary’s profit came to roughly one and a half times what the entire company sells for today, before tax.
That wasn’t luck. It was the law.
This business collects a toll that the state requires people to pay. When the economy goes wrong, more people have to pay it. It needs no sales pitch and spends nothing to win customers. No startup can show up and take share, because the law decides who qualifies, and qualifying takes years.
Today that toll booth trades at about 2 times EBITDA.
Read that again. Not 20 times. Not 12. Two.
Here is what the market is missing.
The cash is piling up. More than a third of the share price sits in the bank, and the company has zero debt. It has a habit of handing excess cash back to shareholders in one big check. After the year it’s having, we think another large special dividend is coming. The last time it was in this position, it paid a special worth about a quarter of today’s share price.
Its prices are frozen, for now. For years the law let this company raise prices automatically every year. That provision lapsed in 2025. A bill to restore it has already passed one chamber of the legislature, and its fate rides on an election days away. Nearly every dollar of a price increase falls straight to profit.
Hard assets back the downside. The company has cash in the bank. It also owns a building outright in one of its city’s fastest-gentrifying neighborhoods, blocks from a billion-dollar redevelopment. Together they cover more than half the share price. The building sits on the books at a fraction of what the property across the street is listed for.
It is having a record year. Earnings through nine months are up more than fourfold, and the strongest quarter hasn’t even been reported yet.
There’s a built-in buyer. A wealthy insider already owns part of the crown-jewel business. The partnership agreement on file contains a clause that lets one partner force a buyout.
No analyst covers it. It’s tiny, family-run and invisible to Wall Street, which is exactly why it’s this cheap.
It’s a recession hedge, a cash machine and a real estate play in one, priced as if it were going out of business.
If you want to read the full writeup the link is in my bio and it is the most recent article. Never seen anything like this.
Whoops. Investors beginning to realize that $META issuing equity for capex is a shitco move.
Meta Platforms $META is literally, and I mean LITERALLY, named after its last mistake and now they are about to raise equity to fund more AI nonsense. They are spending so much Capex. Capex was more than cash from operations this quarter and will be more in the full year based on their guide. How did a capital lite tech company turn into a Capex pit? Kind of wild. There is no cash flow anymore. And they are raising equity that won't dilute Zuck's supervoting shares. Pretty terrible corporate governance if you ask me.
$META financing capex through an equity raise that keeps the super voting shares in tact has me still on the ground rolling and laughing like an idiot. This is shit you would see out of a microcap crapco. Not a high flying “tech” company. Getting a lot of hate for talking shit. Because apparently Meta has to do this or they will “die”. I fail to see how an addictive social media platform that’s worse than smoking cigarettes is going to die by skipping out on this massive capex AI cycle. My god.
Meta Platforms $META is literally, and I mean LITERALLY, named after its last mistake and now they are about to raise equity to fund more AI nonsense. They are spending so much Capex. Capex was more than cash from operations this quarter and will be more in the full year based on their guide. How did a capital lite tech company turn into a Capex pit? Kind of wild. There is no cash flow anymore. And they are raising equity that won't dilute Zuck's supervoting shares. Pretty terrible corporate governance if you ask me.