Opinions on stocks, which are not investment advice.
Fairfax, VA
Joined April 2021
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And now, $MLCI putting a nice backstop on common shares with a $1.5m purchase plan:
Today’s $MLCI deal probably adds $3m of run rate FRE, ramping next year. So up to $15m, which normally would put the Asset Mgmt piece over $150m EV. You also have insurance with $120m book value.
Current market cap/EV is $40m/$100m
They also closed 720 for $7.9m in September:
Slightly under my number unless they got a lease buyout, nice to see $NLOP sell something
bisnow.com/news/boston/offic…
Slightly under my number unless they got a lease buyout, nice to see $NLOP sell something
bisnow.com/news/boston/offic…
Kingdom Capital retweeted
Huge congratulations to @AndrewYAVB on his new job at Bridgewater Associates.
His podcast and blog are an insane source of value.
Additionally, Andrew was one of the first people to respond to my request for a podcast interview when I started Value Hive.
So stoked for you!
Bunch of thoughts going into earnings season, in no particular order:
I think a good setup for $NVRI - business momentum should carry forward and any rail contract update should reveal Q2 was kitchen sink
Wouldn't be surprised if $MNRO ends up like NVRI Q3 last year, with nothing strategic but "advanced discussions" and a deal a few weeks later
I think poor setup for $AMR $METC after $CLF said domestic pricing flat Y/Y. Feel better about $CNR w/ buyback and thermal strength
Hoping for but not really expecting much from $NLOP. Redevelopments are progressing but nothing clearly sold inside Q3.
$FTK $LFTO 2H guides seem extremely sandbagged
Assume the $EVC whale quit in Q3 and they do a consolidated $150m revenue and $25m operating income. That's still extremely cheap with the rest of the ad business growing, and they should break corporate political revs record this year
All three above and $PESI have some improvements to make in IR over last quarter
Will probably be tough for $NN to talk right around when NPRM can get moving again post election
$AKA seems set up well on their Obsession viral moment
Super curious if $CCXI can get it together enough to avoid significant redemptions
Expecting $MAGN EBITDA guide ahead of street, esp with FCF
$REAX first report post merger should be interesting, trying to decide if cheap enough vs $COMP to get me involved
Kingdom Capital retweeted
$EVC you now have both the former CEO of Intel and a former Google exec instrumental in the early days of the adtech space on the board of a $600m market cap company
Would be nice if the most expensive senate race of all time was taking place in $EVC’s core market
Today’s $MLCI deal probably adds $3m of run rate FRE, ramping next year. So up to $15m, which normally would put the Asset Mgmt piece over $150m EV. You also have insurance with $120m book value.
Current market cap/EV is $40m/$100m
Thinking about stuff that's inflecting, here's my rough bridge on what $MLCI is doing to fix their "FRE", with SOFIX closed this quarter, ACIF merger approved, and Nichol ramping up. $12m run rate vs $5m implied on their last three reports...
Sitting on $4m liquid and bemoaning “no mans land of wealth” when you are experiencing the absolute upper crust of the history of human experience.
Maybe, money alone doesn’t satisfy…
Kingdom Capital retweeted
why do they think that? the closest peer Pep Boys just sold for $700M 3 months ago (opco alone) and $MNRO is in better shape than Pep, like for like on the opco plus conservative owned RE value get you to $28/sh for MNRO, sure discount that some. PE loves rolling up this space and this is the last scaled asset on the board. Mavis has made equity investors fortunes, PE seeking to replicate that success.
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Looks like the $MLCI math was spot on
ir.mountlogan.com/news-event…
Thinking about stuff that's inflecting, here's my rough bridge on what $MLCI is doing to fix their "FRE", with SOFIX closed this quarter, ACIF merger approved, and Nichol ramping up. $12m run rate vs $5m implied on their last three reports...
Did a quick $NVRI write up to cover the key points, link should bypass paywall:
seekingalpha.com/article/495…
Currently $NVRI:
~28m shares @$19=$530m mkt cap
Net debt after NR liability accrual ~$270m
HE by 28: $200m EBITDA at 5-6x: $1 - 1.2B
Rail ~$100m
Possible upside on $133m NR accrual
Should generate cash between now and 2028 (my expected sale timeline)
Pretty clean 2 year double
New $WHLR notes are exactly what you might expect: sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edg…
Transparency is central to $EVC Smadex offering, and coming more into focus after recent legal rulings in Ad Tech. Especially true in CTV, where Smadex is leading:
website.smadex.com/smadex-an…
Guess $MAGN is a defense company now
ir.magnera.com/news-releases…