dw… it’s never rly over
Joined November 2020
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have LLMs infected your world with slop?
has social media and online advertising dampened the joy of exploring the web?
has your livelihood been destroyed by stochastic parrots masquerading as men?
don’t worry, there is a way out:
Oswald retweeted
THE MOST INCOMPETENT WAR IN HISTORY: SARAH PAINE ON TRUMP’S IRAN DISASTER
Dr. Sarah Paine, a leading historian of great-power conflict and strategy, delivers a blunt verdict on the Iran war. She calls it one of the most incompetent wars in human history. The decision ignored basic principles of assessment, put maximum costs on America itself, and left permanent damage to the country’s power and alliances. This is not hindsight—it is the predictable result of hubris meeting reality.
THE CORE VERDICT
➡️ “The Iran war is probably one of the most incompetent wars in human history.”
➡️ A competent war puts the costs on the enemy and minimizes them for yourself.
➡️ This one did the opposite.
THE COST CATASTROPHE
➡️ It trashed the US economy.
➡️ It blew the US alliance system.
➡️ Iran is hurting, but the collateral damage is taking down the world’s economy.
➡️ That transforms the United States from a partner into an annoyance—and for many, a primary adversary—because it is threatening their economies.
➡️ “That’s breathtakingly incompetent.”
THE STRATEGIC BLIND SPOT
➡️ Any serious assessment looks at the enemy’s strengths and your own weaknesses, plus everyone else who might intervene.
➡️ That was absent.
➡️ The first thing Iran would do is shut Hormuz. Narrow seas close in wartime. Ukraine already showed this with the Black Sea.
➡️ Shore artillery, mines, and other tools stop traffic. There is no mystery here.
➡️ The big naval base in Bahrain becomes unreachable. The fallback is Diego Garcia, 2,500 miles away in the middle of nowhere. “That would be a mess.”
THE HUBRIS THAT MADE IT POSSIBLE
➡️ The people making the calls are historically unqualified for the job. That makes them profoundly dangerous.
➡️ Type A hubris assumes all decisions that matter happen in the United States.
➡️ Type B hubris assumes being good at one thing makes you good at everything.
➡️ Half-court tennis: you only watch your own side and never study the other team.
➡️ The Iranians understand Americans far better than Americans understand them.
THE UNFEASIBLE OBJECTIVE
➡️ Trying to “solve” Iran with 90 million people was never realistic.
➡️ Nazi Germany had roughly 80 million and required an occupation force of about 1.5 million just to hold it after the war—before counting everyone else.
➡️ The goal was unattainable. Pursuing it guarantees overextension and a bad ending.
➡️ The lesson the world takes is simple: get a nuke. The war incentivized proliferation.
➡️ This was a pivotal error. The choices that existed before are gone and will not return. “We will never be the trusted partner ever again. It’s done.”
THE BOTTOM LINE
The Iran war did not merely fail. It maximized American costs, destroyed trust with allies, and handed every rival a clearer reason to treat the United States as a threat to their own prosperity. Competence would have contained the problem at affordable cost. Hubris chose the opposite.
This is what permanent strategic damage looks like.
#IranWar #SarahPaine #StrategicIncompetence #HormuzDisaster #USHubris #AllianceCollapse #CatastrophicMistake
HT: YouTube The Diary Of A CEO
Oswald retweeted
The future of #ArtificialIntelligence is not pre-determined. As a technology developed by human beings, its future depends on the choices we make. We therefore have the responsibility to guide, change and, when necessary, reject its applications. A reliable system that serves the human person is of greater value than one that is exceptionally powerful but whose consequences cannot be adequately foreseen or controlled.
Oswald retweeted
Hi chat, some updates for my Blooms :
1. Airdropped some to mintooors
2. Reduced MP to be more accessible to collectooors
3. Mint will run for eternity (yes even when you have logged off)
4. I love you all
If you like minimalist art, Get som blooms.
PS This mint will not change your life, pls.
Thank you @mallriot_xyz for all that you do.
hanasbloom.xyz/
Oswald retweeted
AI predictions for next 6-9 months
-> Anthropic/ OAI fail to ban OSS in the US
-> Anthropic/ OAI continue to innovate product but stall on fundamental tech breakthroughs
-> SOTA Gemini 4 launches at 10x lower cost
-> Elon open sources Grok
-> Anthropic/ OAI ARR growth stalls as enterprises move from tokenmaxxing to rational token consumption/ OSS
-> slow realization in public markets that AI may not replace human labor in next 1-3 years/ has not had a fundamental tech breakthrough in over a year/ lacks ROI/ AI hyper and lab spend not durable
-> moonboy VCs/ hedge funds/ softbank continue to fund Anthropic/ OAI equity raises in private markets as public markets for them are now fully closed
-> CXMT, YMTC announce capacity expansions significantly above market expectations
-> hypers deliver good q326 results on first look but fail to show meaningful AI ROI, guide to "significant capex expansion in fy27"
-> broad realization in public markets the AI dream we got sold on is not anywhere close to realization
-> 10yr hits >5%
-> hyper bonds reprice >10%, CDS hit 3x current levels, and AI credit market dries up as market realizes GPU ABF was not a good idea
-> hyper equities reprice 30-50% lower
-> ORCL falls below $30 as rumors of bailout make the round
-> market realizes memory is cyclical and LTAs won't hold
-> 50% of korean traders get wiped within a week
-> hypers cut fy27 capex
-> semis reprice >80% lower
-> fed cuts >150bps to avoid recession
Oswald retweeted
In this era of artificial intelligence, it is becoming urgent to distinguish human art from what machines produce. There is an ontological difference, even before an aesthetic one, between art and what a machine can generate through statistical calculation based on millions of images created by others. Algorithms lack the spark of humanity. For this reason, the Church wishes to renew an alliance with artists and cultural institutions to safeguard our humanity.
Oswald retweeted
Right now I'm possession most depression for future. Why? War come soon.
In past, if economy grow too hot, government raise interest. Cool down economy. But if economy too chaos, too poor, government lower interest. Warm economy.
Right now economy both too hot and interest rate be more low. But everyone most poverty, so government cannot raise interest. Also make everything more complex, America government most poverty. Need print money. But only just recent government control inflation. If print money now, all people most upset because everyone already most poor, cannot afford inflation. Maybe people begin revolution if print money. Now all West government stuck.
How government resolve problem? War. This most misfortune. If economy do bad, government under high pressure wage war. War very good for economy. Also, no one criticize government if it print money when in war. If you do? You unpatriotic. You be criticize.
America wage war soon. I think number 1 target be Iran. Why? America must wage war against enemy strong enough to fight back. Cannot wage war against small country, like Zimbabwe. America need strong enemy that fight back, so this way America have more excuse print more money, buy more military.
I tell you my friend what I think future be. I'm not financial advisor. This only my opinion.
1. soon economy crash. Stock price go trash
2. America population most dissatisfy. All complain. Maybe more violence in public.
3. America government say, "okay my nigga. We need distraction. We go fight Iran"
4. Everyday America media make Iran number 1 bad country. Media make all America hate Iran. Start war.
5. With war, America government print money like its from board game Monopoly. Money supply be most high. Everyone have worthless money. Must invest.
6. Stock go super high.
I give my opinion. Im not financial advisor. Hold cash for while. Wait for economy be world number 1 garbage bin. Then buy index stock. Then America wage war against Iran. Then your stock go super high. You now have much money. This only logic. I'm not professional finance wisdom provider. Only give my personal opinion.
How embarrassing to have a geriatric pedophile sitting in a bunker in Florida at 2am directing bombing runs in the middle east
Oswald retweeted
I cannot wait until the White House changes hands and all of you ghouls switch back from "you're a traitor unless you bootlick so hard your tongue goes numb" to "the government asking any questions about my offshore fentanyl casino is vile tyranny and I will throw myself in the San Francisco Bay in protest", like werewolves at the last ray of the setting moon.
Oswald retweeted
Spot on:
The only way this doesn’t end violently is some type of redistribution of wealth from the 1%.
If the power grab from the top continues prepare for torches and pitchforks.
And this is coming from a billionaire!
