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caleb

@Vulst3

election dork

Joined January 2024
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Any of you sickos got their 2028 preliminary senate ratings up yet?
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TX-09 left of TX-35 馃ゲ
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Answer received
caleb (@Vulst3) profile picturecaleb@Vulst3Oct 16
Washington primary was a D+11 swing from 2024 numbers. If it's a barometer for whiter wealthier seats, Democrats probably get a similar sized swing among poorer+diverse seats. If poor+diverse seats beat that swing meaningfully, wipeout scenario
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Sign of the Memphis area Blacklash: DeSoto county MS is voting to the left in both its House and Senate race
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It's funny that sometimes voters will do this in response to a gerrymander
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Approx
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Kyle Kondik (@kkondik) profile pictureKyle Kondik@kkondik8h
If Indiana and South Carolina had redistricted, they might look like North Carolina does (likely not that dramatic, but still).
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744
22,150
Image from caleb (@Vulst3)
Image from caleb (@Vulst3)
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138,990
Learning that NYT has better estimates for this on their 2026 Voter Trends page. Check those instead!
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Caution that Western states like UT/AZ/CA may be more than 4pts off estimate since they have only partial results
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Normally Indiana isn't close enough to be discussed this way but the GOP is lucky to have good geography there. I think Dems still only get 3/9 last night if the map was more nonpartisan. The 9-0 gerrymander would have failed, though
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Spending effects!
Sean T at RCP (@SeanTrende) profile pictureSean T at RCP
@SeanTrende13h
I think the weirdest example has to be Don Davis in NC, in one of the most hard-fought congressional races in the country, winning by roughly the same margin as Lakesha Womack, who effectively didn't run a campaign.
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Good stuff!
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Trump finishes the campaign 2pts above his all-time low
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Modelled (very approx!) Unsure %s by state continue to track to partisanship
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Democrats could meaningfully help their party image issue if they just make one of tomorrow's Senate freshmen their majority leader
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There we have it
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I wonder if the people entertaining the bullish case for David Jolly are underestimating the extent it would also apply to Angie Nixon
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das rite
Politics & Poll Tracker 馃摗 (@PollTracker2024) profile picturePolitics & Poll Tracker 馃摗
@PollTracker2024Nov 1
VoteHub ratings change US House | Texas' 9th congressional district Likely R ---> Lean R
Image from Politics & Poll Tracker 馃摗 (@PollTracker2024)
Image from Politics & Poll Tracker 馃摗 (@PollTracker2024)
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Final Senate, house, and gubernatorial predictions:
Image from caleb (@Vulst3)
Image from caleb (@Vulst3)
Image from caleb (@Vulst3)
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4,274
Also: CA-04 - Leans Jones CA-07 - Leans Vang CA-11 - Likely Wiener CA-34 - Leans Gonzales-Torres CA-40 - Likely Kim
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