Work in Finance. Self made millionaire by 30, Long term investor mindset.
Boston, MA
Joined March 2012
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spreading false narrative and fear in the market to benefits yourself, being a trillionaire clearly was not enough $IREN $WULF $CIFR $BE $NBIS
Pretty much.
As of the past few weeks, debt markets have almost entirely shut off access to money for any company that doesn’t have substantial revenue independent of AI data centers.
SpaceX closed $40B of debt for GPUs, but we’re investment grade and have Starlink & launch revenue.
That means the 200+ neoclouds are going to see guppy-level death and consolidation. Some will make it through, but not many.
TheCambodianBitcoiner retweeted
How about instead of sharing @jiahanjimliu portfolio you actually acknowledge his point.
:) @elonmusk creating fear and volatility for the competitions, I don't understand how that is not market manipulation.
Elon: “As of the past few weeks, debt markets have almost entirely shut off access to money for any company that doesn’t have substantial revenue independent of AI data centers.”
$NBIS a couple of days ago:
TheCambodianBitcoiner retweeted
Big demon energy.
Elon Musk just posted this:
“As of the past few weeks, debt markets have almost entirely shut off access to money for any company that doesn’t have substantial revenue independent of AI data centers.”
“That means the 200+ neoclouds are going to see guppy-level death and consolidation. Some will make it through, but not many.”
I’m actually a big @elonmusk fan, I think he is extremely smart and one of the best entrepreneurs of my life time, being the world richest man, there weight to his words, $SPCX he promise 13-20GW for 2027, he is shitting on neoclouds and causing fear on purpose, for a few weeks now, he is a ruthless businessman, I do lost a lot of faith in Elon simply because he is picking on the little guys.
TheCambodianBitcoiner retweeted
Putting Together What @elonmusk is Saying/Doing
AI Demand
1. Just yesterday, Elon said "Agentic demand is growing faster than I’ve ever seen anything grow" (1).
2. His actions match "I've been personally spending a lot of time in Memphis, often 4 days a week" (2). $SPCX's biggest goal in terms of revenue next year will be bringing 10GW of compute online.
Financing Availability
1. Now Elon is saying "debt markets have almost entirely shut off access to money for any company that doesn’t have substantial revenue independent of AI data centers".
Conclusion
Elon basically sees AI as the biggest opportunity in the coming years and is doing whatever he can to bring compute online. Now he is saying no one else besides him and hyperscalers will be financed to do it.
So I ask you: Is this how America works? The biggest business opportunity of our time only available to the richest man and the richest companies? Is this Elon's patriotic vision for America?
Pretty much.
As of the past few weeks, debt markets have almost entirely shut off access to money for any company that doesn’t have substantial revenue independent of AI data centers.
SpaceX closed $40B of debt for GPUs, but we’re investment grade and have Starlink & launch revenue.
That means the 200+ neoclouds are going to see guppy-level death and consolidation. Some will make it through, but not many.
TheCambodianBitcoiner retweeted
I like Elon and of course I respect Elon, he’s one of the best entrepreneurs on the planet however nothing he says about neoclouds should be taken seriously.
SpaceX is essentially the largest neocloud (with hyperscaler aspirations)… so naturally he wants/needs other neoclouds to struggle with financing so he can swoop in and steal their demand/customers and/or he wants to buy their land/power thus fast tracking his capacity expansion plans at $SPCX otherwise it’s going to be very hard for him to hit 20GW in the next 2 years.
TheCambodianBitcoiner retweeted
Someone who needs to raise enormous amounts of debt is now warning about his competitors’ debt risk?
Interesting timing, Elon.
Another shot at neoclouds.
Make investors nervous, make funding harder to secure, slow down competing capacity. A great way to keep compute scarce and prices high.
I’m glad $IREN has financing secured. Even less worried about $NBIS. Smaller players dependent on external funding could have a rougher time.
Meanwhile, his own plans call for another 10-20 GW of compute in 2027, with ambitions stretching even further.
That won’t come cheap.
Dirty game, Mr. Musk.
Pretty much.
As of the past few weeks, debt markets have almost entirely shut off access to money for any company that doesn’t have substantial revenue independent of AI data centers.
SpaceX closed $40B of debt for GPUs, but we’re investment grade and have Starlink & launch revenue.
That means the 200+ neoclouds are going to see guppy-level death and consolidation. Some will make it through, but not many.
Like I said you have an incentive to create fear and disorder, from all retailers that support you in the past, go fuck yourself. You want everyone else to fail by spreading fear
Pretty much.
As of the past few weeks, debt markets have almost entirely shut off access to money for any company that doesn’t have substantial revenue independent of AI data centers.
SpaceX closed $40B of debt for GPUs, but we’re investment grade and have Starlink & launch revenue.
That means the 200+ neoclouds are going to see guppy-level death and consolidation. Some will make it through, but not many.
Agreed, visionary no doubt about that, that is why people should take Elon words with a grain of salt, specially promising 20GW by 2027 when literally a handful of exceptional companies can't even get to bring 1GW online in a year.
TheCambodianBitcoiner retweeted
If Elon’s serious about hitting his 13 GW Target this could lead to M&A and a sector-wide rerating of equities with an abundance of powered land.
Wen deal?
You are ruthless, you know you can't deliver 13GW without acquiring other AI data centers companies, so now you are trying to create fear and disorder. Kindly go fuck yourself. :)
TheCambodianBitcoiner retweeted
$WULF 🐺 | TeraWulf on Fox Business
For those who missed Paul Prager on @LizClaman's @PowerPlayersFBN on @FoxBusiness:
• “We are not a Neo-cloud. We’re an energy infrastructure company.”
• “We take energy, we turn it into high power compute.”
• $700M+ projected revenue in 2027
• Long-term, predictable cash flows
• Hawesville debt, when raised, will have an investment-grade credit backstop
• Market not yet differentiating between those who can deliver and those who cannot
Source: foxbusiness.com/video/640731…
TheCambodianBitcoiner retweeted
This an expensive but the best example of "What not to do"
Guy round tripped a 27.6 million dollar folio to 600k.
This kind of repair takes years
On July 16 he was at $7 million
On July 28 he was at $3.8 million
On Oct 13 he was at $1.1 million
On Oct 23 he is at $600k.
One of the wildest retail swings of my lifetime.
This is genuinely disturbing. 🤯
TheCambodianBitcoiner retweeted
IREN’s @danroberts0101 speaks to @ArjunKharpal about AI financing and demand on CNBC.
Watch the full interview.
TheCambodianBitcoiner retweeted
$IREN
My IREN bull case, built on management's own plan.
What came out this week:
At GTC Berlin, Nebius's CRO said compute prices keep rising faster than expected and its 2027 capacity could sell immediately at current prices. Meta's 10-Q showed its non-cancelable commitments up from $349B to $455B in one quarter, mostly third-party cloud capacity. IREN set up IREN Europe with a 300 MW campus planned in Spain, and The Information reported Anthropic has a multiyear cloud deal with IREN, which lines up with the "leading frontier AI lab" IREN signed in August.
What a MW of AI compute earns right now:
• Jensen: ~$40M per MW a year
• SpaceX: slightly above $50 per watt, with payback under a year
• CoreWeave's 3-6 month deals in Q3: ~$40M per MW
• IREN: 3-year deals above $20M, talks around $25M, Microsoft at ~$9.7M
Why I expect IREN's 2027 and 2028 deals to price well above its 2026 book:
• 3-year pricing is up ~125% since November and 5-year ~70%
• Co-CEO Daniel Roberts: "Signing deals is not the bottleneck in this market, bringing GPUs online is," and "Every megawatt we build is scarce"
• Vera Rubin systems are already on order, and Jensen calls Rubin "30 times greater than Blackwell"
• The 2026 book averages ~$13M/MW, held down by Microsoft, which was signed before that ~125% rise
My base case:
• Management's plan: ~0.3 GW of IT load in 2026 and ~0.8 GW by end of 2027. I add ~0.6 GW in 2028 from Sweetwater, Kiowa, Bundey and Badajoz
• The $4B of ARR contracted for 2026 capacity fully live by early 2027, plus ~$0.7B from NVIDIA
• New 2027 capacity at ~$25M/MW, where talks are today
• 2028 deals at ~$30M/MW, still 25-40% below today's short-term rates
• ~20% of the funding gap raised as stock, taking shares from 394M to ~456M by end of 2028
That gives exit-2027 ARR of ~$12B, 2028 revenue of ~$19.5B and EBITDA of ~$14B, with payback on the GPUs down from ~2 years to ~18 months at $25M and ~15 at $30M. Valued at 8x next year's EBITDA, a discount to the 10x I use for Nebius, that's ~$170 by end of 2027. At 7x, it's ~$275 by end of 2028. That's about 29x and 15x forward earnings.
Stress tests on that:
• New deals stuck at $20M: ~$125 by end of 2027
• Every MW six months late: ~$130
• Today's ~5x EBITDA instead of 8x: ~$100
• Half the funding gap raised in stock at $30-40: ~$140
Bull case, ~0.9 GW by end of 2027 and ~1.8 GW by end of 2028, with new deals at ~$30M in 2027 and ~$40M by 2028: ~$300 by end of 2027 and ~$550 by end of 2028.
What the market pays today: ~$10B, ~2.1x the $4.7B of ARR already contracted for 2026 capacity plus NVIDIA, ~0.8x the ARR I expect at the end of 2027 and ~1.4x Street revenue of $7.4B for the year to June 2028. NVIDIA's right to invest up to $2.1B is struck at $70, ~2.8x today's price. ~21% of shares outstanding are sold short.
How it's funded: ~$14B of cash, committed GPU financing and prepayments, including $3.6B of investment grade GPU debt at 6.0% for Microsoft and $2.4B from Blue Owl and PIMCO at 9.0%. Prepayments cover 45-55% of GPU capex on recent deals, and every data center is still unencumbered.
Track record:
• AI cloud revenue went from $16.4M in FY25 to $128.8M in FY26, and Q4's $70.5M more than doubled Q3
• $1B of ARR operating by late August, and 2026 capacity "largely sold out"
• Signed Microsoft for $9.7B and NVIDIA for $3.4B plus a partnership for up to 5 GW, with customers including Perplexity, Cohere and Figure AI
• Delivered Horizon 1 in August with NVIDIA Exemplar Cloud status on GB300 NVL72
• Energized the 1.4 GW Sweetwater 1 substation on schedule, part of a 2 GW hub
Much of today's price is oil, rates and CoreWeave's bonds. IREN touched a new 52-week low of $24.86 today, ~68% below its high, with no IREN-specific bad news.
I'm long $IREN. It's one of my biggest positions.
@Agrippa_Inv @FransBakker9812 @Bare_Birk @jiahanjimliu I'd value your take, especially on the pricing. A repost helps if you think it's worth reading.
