Space | Energy | Defense | AI | Quantum | Finance | Posts are for education & discussion, never investment advice. The market pays me, I share everything freely
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This wasn't $NBIS. Their Q2 letter (Aug 12): "To date, we've delivered all capacity tranches to Microsoft under the contract, including two tranches over the past month."
Probably $IREN or Nscale.
That delay caused the $MSFT's capex miss & CY outlook cut (~$175B to $170B).
$MSFT said much the same, plus the dip in capex spending vs expected was from a delay in a third-party delivery.
This market is just full of gerbil energy.
GOOGLE:
- NO CHANGE TO OUR 2026 CAPEX GUIDE OF $205B
- WE EXPECT TO SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE CAPEX IN 2027
- Missed on EPS & Revenue, stock is down 10% for the first time since March
$GOOGL
Continued signs of life for $TE.
Not risk-free, but the price got very interesting.
Without funding, $TE likely goes bankrupt & gets sold for parts, or dilutes to zero & reverse splits. Funding has gotten tougher. Downside risk is still significant.
If they get funding...
Took a shot at positioning again in $TE here at ~$2. This is a binary, high-risk bet that leadership isn't going to run two massive solar factories and a first-of-its-kind domestic supply chain into the ground any more than they already have.
Sized accordingly.
Took a shot at positioning again in $TE here at ~$2. This is a binary, high-risk bet that leadership isn't going to run two massive solar factories and a first-of-its-kind domestic supply chain into the ground any more than they already have.
Sized accordingly.
The larger adds were in the decimated AI sector, including $NBIS, $BE, $LITE, $INTC, and $DRAM.
I also went scavenging through the rubble for higher-risk but very beat-up names like $FPS, $VOYG, $BKSY, $ONDS, and $USAR.
And I started a big position in $AMZN.
Rates still look like they're topping. I was a little early adding some high-beta/momentum, but I've been taking it slow. Pretty ugly out there, so risk is still dialed way down, but this fear and indiscriminate selling is the extreme opposite of May's euphoria and complacency.
Looks like there was more to be thrown at $ASTS 😬. The $40's are a killer spot to add imo (I did). Now we're starting to price in near complete pessimism including the anticipated delay of Beta service into early 2027.
As I mentioned below, I thought $SPCX was more likely to win this. At $8B, they certainly paid through the nose (over 30% of $ASTS's market cap for a small slice of spectrum; no way $ASTS was going to match that).
One of the biggest concerns I had was that $SPCX would be slick about this and play wolf in sheep's clothing a bit longer, but instead they've been slapping their nuts across every mobile carrier in the world. The stage is now set. Join and support $ASTS or die.
The truly bearish, thesis-breaking outcome would be if the MNOs kept brushing this off and making excuses. I'll be watching to see how they respond.
$ASTS Added a bit today in the $50's. At this point, everything imaginable has been thrown at this stock for months. The entire internet is hating on it now apparently.
Anyways.
This Grain thing is a pretty big deal. Was reading up on it last night, and I had the FCC renewing AST's test authority as one of my buy triggers, so this was perfect timing.
$SPCX needs this penetrating low-band spectrum desperately. Without it, the $2T company's Starlink Mobile aspirations are going to be rough. Would you switch from Verizon/AT&T/T-Mobile to a phone carrier that doesn't work under trees, in cars, or in buildings?
SpaceX is throwing their deep pockets around to try to win this, but the problem is that SpaceX has no current designs or plans to launch a satellite that can even use this spectrum, which is basically one of the requirements to win the bid. If they were to start designing one today, it would take years to build, test, get licensed, and launch. They seem more focused on orbital data centers for this next phase.
Meanwhile, $ASTS is the only one that has gone through years of testing, building, and approvals for these types of sats from the start. And they are the only one that already has them in the sky. And they are the only one now actively testing Grain's spectrum (interesting that the FCC even alludes to "AST SpaceMobile's arrangement with the terrestrial licensee").
If $ASTS gets this spectrum (and $SPCX doesn't), it will be a very big deal. The MNOs are also seemingly working together to help $ASTS win this and keep it out of the hands of $SPCX. Having the support of basically all of the MNOs likely makes $ASTS's candidacy to win the bid even more appealing. Winning it would also be another third-party validation that $ASTS's tech works and is superior. It also unlocks access to T-Mobile customers even without an agreement.
For now the market is still favoring $SPCX to win this. It will be very interesting to see what happens.
A good early taste of liquidity as Friday was green nearly across the board. Nice bounce on $IWM which held even with the bond yield rebound/chop.
Short positioning on $IWM is at record levels.
Yields stabilizing would be the catalyst.
Chart: GS (neg. y-axis)
If this happens, I suspect liquidity will return gradually.
Also watching $IWM. After 1.5 months of non-stop bleeding, it bounced off the 200D MAs on the highest volume since July.
Just early signs, but after sitting on my hands for two months, I'm starting to pay attention.
$RKLB's profit margin expansion will be remarkable.
SpaceX employee #13 @_Eric_Romo:
"The idea that launch prices are going to fall significantly in the next 5 years is nonsense."
"There are an awful lot of business models that are predicated on 'when Starship allows me to launch for $200 a kilogram…'"
"I think they’re all broken, and all those companies are going to fail."
"We’ve seen this play out already with Falcon 9 and the pricing around it, where the costs of Falcon 9 allowed SpaceX to deliver the Starlink constellation at a cost per CapEx that made them profitable."
"But they set the price in the market at something that just barely made it an okay investment to think about OneWeb or Kuiper or anything like that."
"They’re going to do the same thing on Starship, because why wouldn’t they?"
"Their internal costs on Starship are going to be whatever they need to be to deploy Starlink and orbital data centers, but they’re going to set the price so that anybody trying to do comms, anybody trying to do orbital data centers—the price is going to be too high."
"If you’re a third party relying on them for a lower price of access to space, I think you’re hosed."
@elonmusk
Recorded at @NYSE x @payloadspace Space Summit
$ASTS Added a bit today in the $50's. At this point, everything imaginable has been thrown at this stock for months. The entire internet is hating on it now apparently.
Anyways.
This Grain thing is a pretty big deal. Was reading up on it last night, and I had the FCC renewing AST's test authority as one of my buy triggers, so this was perfect timing.
$SPCX needs this penetrating low-band spectrum desperately. Without it, the $2T company's Starlink Mobile aspirations are going to be rough. Would you switch from Verizon/AT&T/T-Mobile to a phone carrier that doesn't work under trees, in cars, or in buildings?
SpaceX is throwing their deep pockets around to try to win this, but the problem is that SpaceX has no current designs or plans to launch a satellite that can even use this spectrum, which is basically one of the requirements to win the bid. If they were to start designing one today, it would take years to build, test, get licensed, and launch. They seem more focused on orbital data centers for this next phase.
Meanwhile, $ASTS is the only one that has gone through years of testing, building, and approvals for these types of sats from the start. And they are the only one that already has them in the sky. And they are the only one now actively testing Grain's spectrum (interesting that the FCC even alludes to "AST SpaceMobile's arrangement with the terrestrial licensee").
If $ASTS gets this spectrum (and $SPCX doesn't), it will be a very big deal. The MNOs are also seemingly working together to help $ASTS win this and keep it out of the hands of $SPCX. Having the support of basically all of the MNOs likely makes $ASTS's candidacy to win the bid even more appealing. Winning it would also be another third-party validation that $ASTS's tech works and is superior. It also unlocks access to T-Mobile customers even without an agreement.
For now the market is still favoring $SPCX to win this. It will be very interesting to see what happens.
$ASTS - 🚨Another FCC STA extension to keep testing on Grain (Prism) 817-824/862-879 MHz spectrum was filed on 9/30/2026.
Expires October 30th. Grain's decision window for a satellite partner closes November 5th.
Big things are brewing behind the scenes and you're bearish b/c you're listening to B. Riley?
H/T: @Bareskin_Bear
If this happens, I suspect liquidity will return gradually.
Also watching $IWM. After 1.5 months of non-stop bleeding, it bounced off the 200D MAs on the highest volume since July.
Just early signs, but after sitting on my hands for two months, I'm starting to pay attention.
Low liquidity/volume, billions in shorts defending their position, retail exuberance into exhaustion, pre-commercial, lumpy catalysts, & a "complicated" vision make $ASTS an easy target.
Position/risk sizing is essential or short-term noise will wipe you out before the reward.
The reason I'm perplexed is that it's one thing for us to put together breadcrumbs of a possible future, and entirely different for the company to just come out and say it all.
I'm glad they said it. It turns those breadcrumbs into a stated goal and shows the vision they've been building toward for years.
The "problem" is that none of it is a now thing. It's a future thing. The now thing is incredibly high cash burn and only 13 satellites up and a skeptical (or even adversarial) market.
The risk is people expecting all of it to get priced in soon, owning more $ASTS than they should (through margin, leverage, and options), anchoring to prior euphoria highs, and burning out before any of this comes to fruition.