Looking for value, focused on O&G, Mining and Shipping. It ain’t what you don’t know that gets you into trouble. It’s what you know for sure that just ain’t so
Joined January 2023
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I’ve seen some pretty bad takes on $KOS. Weak earnings were mainly cargo timing — being underlifted is actually a positive here since those barrels get sold into much higher Q4 prices. Loss is mark-to-market, cash flow is positive and the barrels haven't gone anywhere. If you don’t understand basics like barrels sold vs prod in an E&P, you probably shouldn’t own it 🙂
FCFE, i.e. after interest and the $110m of 2027 principal: ~$360m at the strip, 24% of the market cap, ~$0.61/share. Caveat: none of it is distributable — it all goes to debt — so don't count the yield and the deleveraging as two different returns.
My numbers, not guidance: Q4 at $110 Dated, 13 MMbbl of Ghana oil incl. 1 MMbbl of underlift catch-up, $400m capex, gas at $6.70/mcf. Capex is the soft one — no 2027 guidance yet
Ngl, I expected some feedback, for or against the thesis. That was the main reason I published it. Kinda get what @respeculator meant about wanting a sounding board and not getting the dialogue.
The catches: the bond caps payouts near a 5% yield until 2028, Block G came with a big abandonment bill, and a run-off of today's 2P alone is worth a bit less than the share price. So the price pays almost nothing for Block G after 2040, the 2C or EG-23.
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Equinor acquires 17.4% interest in PEL 90 (Namibia) from operator Chevron. QatarEnergy also 27% in PEL 90
Chevron's Kapana-1 well came in non-commercial in Jan '25 but the company confirmed Monday it will spud its 2nd PEL 90 well, Nabba-1X, before year-end
H/T @AndersSjastad
Deepwater E&P is a specialty of Equinor's and is worth the risk given the upside potential in my opinion $EQNR
Really good acquisition by EnQuest today. They seem to understand that APAC is where they should be focusing their business #ENQ $ENQ.L
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These people are buying gas produced by Norway from the same sands they could explore and develop.
I still cannot understand the European hypocrisy, being a huge consumer of hydrocarbons while demonizing their extraction.
The UK government will introduce an Energy Independence Bill that would permanently ban new exploration licences in the North Sea and implement other energy policies, it said in the King's Speech policy announcement on 13 May.
The bill will introduce "Transitional Energy Certificates, and show climate leadership by meeting the manifesto commitment not to issue new licences to explore new fields, including delivering the commitment to ban fracking", according to the King's Speech document released by the government.
#oott
argusmedia.com/en/news-and-i…
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Out of this world hits. Very long intervals also 🤯$NGEX.TO teapaw.org/inverjor/status/205451…
NGEx Minerals Highlights Lunahuasi High-Grade Gold with 17.3m at 207.79 g/t Au, Including 2.00m at 1,740.00 g/t Au, plus 4.88m at 60.10 g/t Au $NGEX.TO tinyurl.com/29qy5ucx
