Natural Climate Solutions, complex systems, machine learning, causality. Cofounder: https://teapaw.org/t.co/QpCD1z0Ghl. @Indian Forest Service @UIUCGeogGIS Alum.
Joined March 2018
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Carbon offset credits claim to represent precise climate benefits.
But many forest projects operate in complex social-ecological systems where causal attribution is deeply uncertain.
This tension sits at the heart of the carbon market.
My interview:
reddmonitor.substack.com/p/t…
Pushpendra Rana retweeted
Mostly, I want to hear less about biodiversity, nature, and carbon credits and offsets.
So we wrote a paper about it.
sciencedirect.com/science/ar…
Pushpendra Rana retweeted
#WATCH | Shimla | Pushpendra Rana, Special Secretary, Disaster Management Authority, Himachal Pradesh, says, "When we analysed satellite data from recent years, we observed an upward trend in landslides. Upon analysing data spanning from 2018 to 2025, we identified 6,494 landslide locations spread across the state... We found that highly sensitive points are emerging across Himachal's landscape, evolving into landslide sites. Our recent study also indicates that these landslides are not necessarily triggered by rainfall alone. In many areas, the geological formations, topography, and terrain of the Himalayas are facilitating this process. Furthermore, disaster events such as cloudbursts, flash floods, and incidents like the recent GLOF (Glacial Lake Outburst Flood) in Nepal could exacerbate the risk of landslides in the future. Consequently, it has become crucial for Himachal to employ appropriate technologies for construction and development activities and to manage human interference with the landscape in a scientific manner... 36 major landslides were reported this season, with the majority occurring in Lahaul-Spiti and Kullu areas... Himachal has indeed suffered significant damage from disasters this time. Our estimated interim report indicates a figure exceeding Rs 3,200 crore. We have recorded over 300 deaths, including those resulting from road accidents during this season, and approximately 500 people have been injured, notably due to landslides. A significant number of animals, cowsheds, and houses have been damaged during this disaster season. In light of this, we have drafted a 'hill-cutting policy,' which is currently under review by the Law Department..." (16.09)
Pushpendra Rana retweeted
Himachal Pradesh has identified 67 vulnerable glacial lakes, including several in remote, high-altitude areas, and is working to establish early warning systems for four of the most vulnerable lakes in Kinnaur and Lahaul-Spiti, Special Secretary, Disaster Management, Pushpinder Rana, said on Saturday.
More details 🔗 toi.in/_YDvWY
Catch every update on the TOI App 👉 timesofindia.sng.link/Cqhd4/…
#HimachalPradesh #GlacialLakes #GLOF #GlacialLakeOutburstFlood #DisasterManagement #Kinnaur #LahaulSpiti #HimachalNews
WhereToPlant and WhatToPlant - AI based telegram bot to assist in selection of plantation sites and tree species..
Pushpendra Rana retweeted
IFS officer Pushpendra Rana built an AI that tells farmers exactly what tree to plant and where.
A Telegram bot called WhereToPlant.
In 2025, plantations covered ~3,000 hectares in HP.
His system guided site selection for 500+ hectares across 250+ locations.
Now he's adding WhatToPlant.
Trained on 226,000 field observations of trees across Himachal.
29 environmental variables per site - elevation, slope, rainfall patterns, terrain.
It predicts suitable species for 98 native trees across 795,000 grid tiles covering the entire state.
Every tile is 7 hectares.
A wall-to-wall prediction map for an entire Indian state.
No GIS degree needed. No new app to download.
Just a chatbot on Telegram (WhatsApp wanted to charge for it, so he skipped it).
This is what AI adoption at the grassroots actually looks like.
Pushpendra Rana retweeted
Shimla, Himachal Pradesh: On On 'Aapda Rakshak' app, Dr. Pushpendra Rana, Special Secretary, Disaster Management says, ''Earlier, the reporting mechanism was such that whenever an incident occurred, information was received by the State Disaster Management Authority (SDMA) or the State Government only through official channels. As a result, local citizens were not directly involved in the reporting process. With this new app, however, any citizen can instantly report a disaster from anywhere. Whether they are in any corner of Himachal Pradesh or at the site of the incident, they can immediately send information about the disaster directly to us...''
Pushpendra Rana retweeted
HPSDMA और UNDP की 'आपदा रक्षक योजना' हिमाचल में प्रशिक्षित First Responders तैयार कर रही है, ताकि हर गांव आपदा के लिए तैयार हो।
📞1070/1077
📱9459455841
📧[email protected]
🌐hpsdma.nic.in
@SukhuSukhvinder @nidmmhaindia @ndmaindia
#AapdaRakshak #HPSDMA #SafeHimachal
1/ 🧵 Carbon offsets don’t fail because data or methods are weak.
They fail because project-level causal effects are not identifiable in complex forest systems—yet credits demand that precision.
Evidence from Brazil & India (50-day free access):
🔗 authors.elsevier.com/a/1mWeE… 👇
Estimated average effects overlap zero, while uncertainty is large and exceeds the effects themselves.
That alone should trigger serious caution about credit issuance based on point estimates.
Sorting CATEs shows why: uncertainty explodes due to non-linear dynamics, not noise.
A deeper problem: non-interference fails.
Offset methods assume outcomes respond only to the project itself (SUTVA).
We find multiple causal pathways operate simultaneously—farms, grazing, fire,—invalidating project-level isolation. Therefore, project attribution collapses.
Pushpendra Rana retweeted
I'm up next on the big stage at Supercomputing (SC25) in St. Louis, speaking about "High-Performance Creativity". Wish me luck!
There are lots of intriguing high-performance / distributed computing problems in creativity and scientific discovery.
Pushpendra Rana retweeted
Several colleagues and I are organizing a panel on "From global restoration goals to people's visions for the future: Capturing diverse imaginaries of ecosystem restoration" at the upcoming Pollen conference in Barcelona (June 29-July 3, 2026).
nomadit.co.uk/conference/pol…
