THE UK FISCAL POSITION A WEEK BEFORE THE BUDGET. So we learned this morning inflation has jumped up, with the 1st Burnham-Healey Budget now a week away. But we also got the latest fiscal backdrop this morning. It’s not great. The government borrowed another £24.5bn in September — £1.8bn more than last Sept and £1.9bn above both the OBR's March forecast. In cash terms it's the second-highest Sept on record, behind only Covid year 2020. Year-to-date government borrowing is just shy of £98bn. That's over £4bn less than YTD 2025 but £6bn more than the OBR forecast. Why? Not because of a revenue shortfall. Tax receipts are £5.8bn ahead of forecast for the year so far (helped by inflation). At £90bn, September tax receipts were up 5.2% on a year earlier. Spending is the problem, especially debt interest, which was almost £11bn in September — UP 16.6% ON A YEAR AGO, £2bn above OBR forecast and the highest September since records began in 1997. Overall, YTD spending is almost £9bn above forecast. Debt interest accounts for £3.8bn of that and welfare benefits for £2.5bn. The Labour government’s two Achilles Heels. ALSO — net national debt has passed £3 trillion — 94.0% of GDP (over 100% on IMF measure, which allows for international comparisons). So the UK fiscal position is being undermined by inflation and debt interest. The latest OBR forecast, out with the Budget, will be driven by both these factors. Could make for some dismal reading.