decap retweeted
כל המשפחה שלי ביביסטית, שכנעתי אותם בארוחת שבת להצביע למשותפת. כמעט - הסבתא שמצביעה בן גביר תצביע לרע"מ.
decap retweeted
So this guy's country went to shit because Arabs struggle to settle political differences amicably, so the West generously allows him in, and he spends his time here advocating for medieval sharia punishments, including execution for blasphemy. What a great benefit to our society!
Question for this idiot: should we execute apostates in Canada and America too? If he says, "No it's not a Muslim land." What if Muslims were the demographic majority via immigration? What then?
How are these people being given visas to visit America? What is he doing in NYC? Just deport him back to Toronto already.
decap retweeted
I have now made this same bet at 1:4 odds with @_decap. I've put up $7500 against his $30,000.
I have now bet @GregHBurnham at 1:3 odds that P vs NP or the Riemann Hypothesis will be solved within a year (EOD 2027-09-17).
decap retweeted
One disorienting aspect of reading Homer is how murder is a matter for private blood feuds and not a public crime, so several characters show up and openly say "I murdered a man and had to flee, I'd like to settle here" and everyone goes "Of course, stranger, welcome, welcome".
decap retweeted
Me and my mizrachi husband eating kitniyot on pesach (i fell and hes helping me up)
This quoted post is unavailable.
decap retweeted
The Odyssey is a movie about generational trauma and a critique of the American Dream. But above all else it is a love letter to New York City.
decap retweeted
In honor of the record stealing robbery by Kalshi of its users, we are proud to share the sequel to Kalshi(.)gay, the long awaited Kalshi2.gay - a reckoning
Finally a way to take revenge on the people who rob, lie, and steal from their users. Post your high scores!
Angry at Kalshi but cant do anything about it? Now you can! Throw eggs at Real Kalshi employees on Kalshi.gay
Using openclaw on my mac mini to scrape linkedin every 30 seconds looking for any new kalshi employees, scraping their faces, and importing them
decap retweeted
Never in my life have I so thoroughly sided with Europe in a disagreement with the United States. They are right and America is in the wrong here. The White House is behaving dishonorably, and the legislators who know it but do nothing are cowards.
Trump said he would steadily increase tariffs on eight European countries until the US is permitted to purchase Greenland.
jpost.com/international/arti…
decap retweeted
Can you try to defend this claim a bit more explicitly, in this particular case? What benefit do you think can be traced to this Polymarket trade? Perhaps someone watching the price got a few bits of information. And then...?
decap retweeted
The "do the hobbies you enjoy happen to also be valuable to others" birth lottery is far more unfair than the IQ one.
decap retweeted
A good test for a pundit is to look at what they were writing 5 years ago. If it was obviously wrong and they just moved on without confronting it then you can just dismiss them. Like Noah Smith talking about how immigration was turbocharging the Canadian economy/society
decap retweeted
Dude found a neg risk bot and made a bunch of shit up. Burn it all down.
trader gained $800k pnl using 4 trading strategies on Polymarket.
analytics show insane 73.5% winrate.
no sports, scalping, low key things, just clean markets.
I analyzed his onchain and polymarket activity.
his secret and profile here:
I. netted markets.
polymarket has a list of markets that have the almost similar meaning, but they are different.
there're always a "headliner market", and the "lost one".
after news/updates/releases here occurs spread which might be used for you as a measure of claiming profits.
crowd trades headliner market, but you have to enter the lost one, following the same odds flow as at headliner.
spread yields can reach up to 50%.
it's not as difficult, but it requires fast actions.
II. mispriced odds.
he finds mispriced markets odds. the majority of traders join the crowd, odds become misvalued.
then market needs to be stabilized, that's an organic liquidity flow at any type of the market (polymarket too).
'cigarettes' join the camp of those who trades misvalued odds. here's the profit.
III. high liquidity markets.
no doubt there's a liquidity problem on some markets. you can't put 5figs into market with 4figs volume.
so, the pick of correct market with enough level of open interest matters too.
IV. trade news.
masses loosing the perfect time to enter. fast hands trade the news and use latecomers as exit liquidity.
you have to enter before the masses will, otherwise you become exit liquidity for those who did.
"trade news" here means NOT ENTRY at news, but FIX at news.
check his profile: polymarket.com/@cigarettes?v…
do not stay sidelined, learn these tips and adopt to strategies while they're working.
decap retweeted
cobie made inverse gainzybot and only used it during a small choppy window where it basically didn’t lose
I’ve never seethed harder
last year someone made an account named 'decap-autofade-bot' and while it doesn't trade much it's positive pnl and I'm not sure how to feel about that
polymarket.com/@decap-autofa…
decap retweeted
*Speculating* how the Nobel Peace Prize winner was leaked:
Last night I hosted a *difficult* interview with the alleged “insider” in the Nobel Peace Prize market on Polymarket. Despite an hour of questions, we were still stuck wondering how a trader or team could know Maria Machado would win 12 hours early.
It turns out the answer may have been hiding in plain sight — on the Nobel website itself.
From the interview a few themes stood out. There was potential for some sort of web scraping, as the trader said he used a similar tactic to pull the Lex Fridman transcript for a mention market, that this information was accessible by anyone, and that “you can brute force your way into a lot of things”. That suggests a there was a way to find the URL for Machado before it was published.
The Nobel site runs on WordPress. Like many WordPress setups, it has an XML sitemap that lists every indexable page, even ones not yet public. If someone were monitoring this sitemap, they could easily notice a new page appear, something like "nobelprize.org/prizes/peace/…"
Most likely, someone wrote a bot or script that watched the uploads folder or sitemap for new files. When this image appeared, they connected the dots.
On the Nobel website, the official portrait of Machado at nobelprize.org/uploads/2025/… carries a “last-modified” timestamp in the file’s metadata of 07:18 GMT on October 10, over 1.5 hours before the announcement.
This picture was loaded into the official announcement page of Nobel “nobelprize.org/prizes/peace/…”, a link you could guess by switching in 2025 for 2024
As well, there are other webpages on the XML sitemap which show Machado as the winner before the official reveal, all around the 07:20 GMT mark.
The timestamp is proof that by early morning the Nobel site was already loaded with material revealing the winner. It also raises a bigger question: what was visible before that?
The data I was able to find only shows the “last modified” date of the webpage, meaning that this image was put up at or before this time. Looking back, we only know the most recent timestamp of this image, it’s possible that 12 hours earlier, the available information on these webpages only hinted that Machado was one of possibly multiple winners.
Regardless, it’s cool to see that a few hours before the official announcement, there was definitely strong evidence that Machado was the winner. There are still a few questions that remain unanswered. Unfortunately the rest is.. speculation.
