I am a geologist and writer doing energy-related work. Energy is the economy so that covers economics, environment, geopolitics , ecology & human behavior
Houston, Texas
Joined March 2009
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Mediation is not alliance membership, dude
Iranian assistance in developing Saudi nuclear warheads is speculation layered on speculation
The real story is moving away from US security dependence
BREAKING: According to Israeli intelligence sources, Pakistan has mediated on behalf of Saudi Arabia to bring Iran's Islamic regime into the Mecca Alliance, under which both countries will not only put an end to hostilities, but also protect each other from external threats.
The Iranian Islamic regime's membership in the Mecca Alliance could accelerate Saudi Arabia's domestic ballistic missile programs. Technology transfers provided by Iran's regime could enable Saudi Arabia to design, develop, and produce nuclear warheads for its ballistic missiles, posing an extensive threat to the State of Israel.
Readers added context they thought people might want to know
Officials from the Mecca Joint Defence Agreement countries (Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Pakistan) are meeting Iranian officials in Tehran to discuss de-escalation and regional security. This is not an effort to bring Iran into the alliance.
reuters.com/world/asia-pac…
aljazeera.com/news/2026/10/2…
Nonsense @acidiclemon2
Blockchain is a derivative of money which is a claim on energy & materials. TEQs are even farther from underlying reality
Derivatives of derivatives are the masturbation of the reductive mind.
The bet on AI’s effect on GDP reflects a reductive, predatory worldview that ignores the larger system of which both are parts.
People who focus on parts miss the relationships that determine the behavior of the whole.
There are never just two sides to a bet in a complex system.
@acidiclemon2 @gordonschuecker
Then perhaps GDP crashes by 10% and it needs to make +25% to reach +15% from the previous peak? The bet doesn't really care about what GDP is for and I get the critique, but it's like betting that next year I'll make $100k/year. Pretty objective. Either I make it or I don't. I could be selling drugs or curing cancer, it doesn't matter re the made bet.
You can't handle complexity @A_Eye_Bubble
That's your problem.
Time to live in the real world instead of what you look at on screens.
@grok i can't wrap my head around @aeberman12's repost. He often quotes SPR levels as if they do matter in some way? Yet at other times he argues that only comparative inventory
matter? And 2026 shows more evidence they do in his own post. Help me untangle these inconsistencies.
Reductive and irrelevant @red4treble
Nothing is the same in history but that doesn't change the reality that more than 2 years of lower inventories than today caused no crisis.
Learn to live with what is real & stop trying to manipulate it to fit your preferred bias.
Price Is Not the Petroleum System
We obsess over oil prices, but price is neither a stock nor a flow.
It influences decisions without defining the system’s purpose.
We keep trying to explain price through supply and demand.
Perhaps we should understand the system that produces it.
👇
artberman.com/blog/the-petro…
Saudi Arabia is warning Iran that attacks on critical infrastructure could trigger a response from its defense partners.
@andreas_krieg sees deterrence.
@policytensor sees an empty threat.
The real question is whether Turkey and Pakistan would risk war with Iran to defend Saudi Arabia.
Ah yes. The Turks and the Pakistanis will protect the Saudis when the Americans can’t. 🤣
It’s one thing for the Sunni gang to deter or even coerce Iran when the US serves as backup. In the middle of a war with the US, Iran doesn’t give a shit about their threats.
The Saudi values are their insurance policy against US strikes on their values. They’re not about to let the Sunni bootlickers of the empire take that away from them. Think of the scenario in which they have to deliver on this threat and ask yourself what difference does Turkish, Pakistani, Egyptian, British and French policy makes. Zero.
The Iran War has driven Middle East-to-Asia oil shipping costs above $37/barrel—5 times prewar levels.
Longer routes and inefficient ship-to-ship transfers have pushed Asian refining margins negative.
The shipping bottleneck is now amplifying the global energy crisis.
iea.org/commentaries/the-soa…
Why do strategic reserves matter? @A_Eye_Bubble
They obviously don't to markets.
Just to people who falsely believe the petroleum system cares as much about price as they do.
But you don't care about understanding.
Just something tradeable like a predator.
So? @ZMK_Advisory
Just because the data doesn’t fit your preferred narrative, the fact remains:
The world had lower inventories for several recent years than now and there was no crisis
It's been a bad week for Trump.
Oil reached its highest price since the early weeks of the Iran War. Netanyahu looks likely to lose Israel's election, and Brazil's voters appear poised to deny Trump a key ally in his “Donroe Doctrine,” writes Rabobank's @BenPicton1
War, elections and markets are converging.
Mark Carney’s ambition to make Canada an energy-exporting superpower got a boost from a rare Conservative victory in British Columbia.
Trump’s tariffs are pushing Canada toward Asian markets.
BC’s new premier wants to double LNG output by 2032 and slash regulatory barriers.
ft.com/content/397d5d63-1d60…
Trump’s tariff war with China has helped fuel a coal boom in Vietnam.
Manufacturing moved, but the energy requirements didn't disappear.
Vietnam’s coal-fired generation is at record highs, up 15% in 2026.
Another reminder that shifting production isn't an energy transition.
reuters.com/commentary/reute…
Trump’s “energy dominance” was hubris masquerading as strategy, writes @ronbousso1
Record US oil production is no shield against global prices. Success in Venezuela convinced Trump that military power could dictate outcomes.
Iran exposed that illusion.
The world is paying the price.
reuters.com/commentary/reute…
China buys 75% of seaborne iron ore, but Australia supplies roughly two-thirds of China's imports, writes @ClydeCommods
Beijing is using its buying power to force discounts, with limited success.
The problem? China has no alternative supplier at comparable scale.
Dependency cuts both ways.
reuters.com/commentary/reute…
Trump says there are two conflicting intelligence assessments of Iran but assures us the US is doing “well.”
Apparently, we're supposed to ignore eight months of war, soaring energy prices and strategic stalemate because Trump knows better.
The biggest military blunder in modern history is being spun as success.
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Barclays is finally recognizing what the physical oil market has been telling us for months: the Iran war isn't ending soon.
Middle East flows remain 16% below prewar levels, inventories are falling, and buyers are paying $13/bbl premiums for prompt supply.
The oil market's last cushion is gone - just as demand is aggressively ramping up.
According to Barclay's latest research:
- China crude imports back near pre-war at 10.5mb/d
- India running +600kb/d y/y
- US demand recovering
Supply stuck at 84% of pre-war with demand back at 100% - that's the squeeze.
And prices are adjusting quickly.
Buyers are paying a $13/bbl premium for cargoes loading next week over the front-month contract.
A week into the war, that premium was under $4.
500m barrels of inventory have been burned through.
Paper can be jawboned. Physical can't.
