
Reuters energy columnist. I also like guitar picking. Tweets are my views. email me [email protected]
London, England
Joined June 2013
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Seriously? What a load of nonsense from a leader of a major global bank. This quote won't age well.
reuters.com/business/energy/…
Ron Bousso retweeted
🛢️🚢 Freight Costs Are Disrupting Global Oil Markets
Record-high shipping costs are squeezing refining margins and disrupting physical crude and refined-product flows.
This raises a critical question: Who should absorb the rising transportation costs? Producers, traders, refiners, or end buyers? Could these costs be shared across the supply chain, or will new pricing mechanisms and trade routes emerge?
The answer could reshape crude differentials, refining margins and global fuel prices.
The new battleground in oil markets may not be supply alone, but the cost of delivering it.
#OilMarkets #CrudeOil #Refining #Freight #EnergyMarkets #OOTT
COLUMN: Asian refiners' pain is Middle East oil producers' problem
Shipping costs near record highs are crushing Asian refining margins even as global fuel markets run short of supply. To keep Asian refiners buying, Middle Eastern exporters may have to absorb more of those costs themselves, squeezing the revenue they desperately need after months of war.
In yet another sign of the extraordinary distortions rippling through global energy markets as the US and Iran vie for control of the Strait of Hormuz, oil is increasingly flowing out of the Middle East, but actually getting it to customers has become so expensive that it threatens to undermine the recovery.
Read my @ReutersOI column: reuters.com/commentary/reute…
Ron Bousso retweeted
Record high targeting of shipping by Iran as volumes have recovered.
Something has to give.
(Source Eurasia Group)
The stark admission by the UKMTO, the British maritime security service, that it is struggling to correctly report the extent of attacks on vessels attacked in and around the Strait of Hormuz is entirely consistent with what I've been hearing from Gulf NOCs and traders about just how dangerous tanker transits out of the Gulf are - I was repeatedly told that practically every vessel that crosses Hormuz, whether through the southern corridor close to Oman that is protected by the US Navy, or even through the northern route allegedly controled by Iran, is harassed by IRGC over the radio and fired at, be it warning shots near the ship or directly at the ship.
Hormuz flows have recovered sharply, but the dangers of crossing the waterway is extremely elevated.
Brent just broke through $110 a barrel for the first time since May after Houthi claims they hit Saudi energy infrastructure.
Ron Bousso retweeted
With Asian refining margins crushed by near record-high shipping costs, Middle Eastern exporters may have to absorb more of those costs to keep Asian refiners buying, explains ROI's @ronbousso1 reut.rs/4skMZ64
Ron Bousso retweeted
Replying to @ronbousso1
Ron. We had first called out @UK_MTO several months back, when we asked them as to why USN attacks were not being reported. Then we found they unreported the number of attacks on vessels (likely under orders), the extent of the damage to vessel and environmental damage as well (SIDR was repeatedly reported as not leaking crude) and we also found they were fudging casualty numbers (by increasing them while reporting an Iranian strike). After chasing them several times, they reported they could not verify all attacks and hence had to drop several of them, however while they also cannot verify USN supported transits, they still publish the numbers as reported to them with a disclaimer.
You would do well to lookup the roles of spotters in the Hormuz, the recent uptick in speedboats and those that shine lights to identify, the claims of mines and UUVs recently cited. The hailings by both parties, we have uploaded a few - both by IRGC and USN in the last weeks.
You may want to check on the various scoops we've pushed along. USN directives to ships on Radar/GPS/GNSS and AIS and the ability that USN acknowledges that IRGC can still read radar emissions even when digitally transiting dark. (Something the IRGC hailing shows, as they identify vessels by coords/names) On written forms that are needed to be filled over associated dangers of crossing the Hormuz such as with mines and IRGC drone attacks.
Crazy time for sailors out there who're risking it all to keep things moving.
A quick take on the rise in Iranian attacks on tankers around the Strait of Hormuz @ReutersOI
The stark admission by the UKMTO, the British maritime security service, that it is struggling to correctly report the extent of attacks on vessels attacked in and around the Strait of Hormuz is entirely consistent with what I've been hearing from Gulf NOCs and traders about just how dangerous tanker transits out of the Gulf are - I was repeatedly told that practically every vessel that crosses Hormuz, whether through the southern corridor close to Oman that is protected by the US Navy, or even through the northern route allegedly controled by Iran, is harassed by IRGC over the radio and fired at, be it warning shots near the ship or directly at the ship.
Hormuz flows have recovered sharply, but the dangers of crossing the waterway is extremely elevated.
Ron Bousso retweeted
Asian refiners' pain is Middle East oil producers' problem - column by @ronbousso1 reuters.com/commentary/reute…
Ron Bousso retweeted
Asian refiners' pain is Middle East oil producers' problem - column by @ronbousso1 reuters.com/commentary/reute…
COLUMN: Asian refiners' pain is Middle East oil producers' problem
Shipping costs near record highs are crushing Asian refining margins even as global fuel markets run short of supply. To keep Asian refiners buying, Middle Eastern exporters may have to absorb more of those costs themselves, squeezing the revenue they desperately need after months of war.
In yet another sign of the extraordinary distortions rippling through global energy markets as the US and Iran vie for control of the Strait of Hormuz, oil is increasingly flowing out of the Middle East, but actually getting it to customers has become so expensive that it threatens to undermine the recovery.
Read my @ReutersOI column: reuters.com/commentary/reute…
Ron Bousso retweeted
ENERGY WATCH: Boom and doom - Newsletter by @ronbousso1 Sign up here: reuters.com/newsletters/reut… reuters.com/commentary/reute…
Ron Bousso retweeted
ENERGY WATCH: Boom and doom - Newsletter by @ronbousso1 Sign up here: reuters.com/newsletters/reut… reuters.com/commentary/reute…
The @IEA said the total amount of oil stocks to be released will exceed the original 400 million agreed in March. Its members agreed to release the remaining 100 million barrels, including 20 million barrels of diesel.
That's not a lot of diesel at all, and less than the 50 million anticipated initially. It will do little to cool global diesel prices.
Given that Europe does have large diesel emergency stocks (around 300 million barrels), I expect the US won't be happy with this.
iea.org/news/iea-governing-b…
ICE diesel contracts for delivery in December 2027 climbed above $1,000 a ton for the first time this week, compared with a pre-war level of $644.
For much of this year, energy markets operated on the assumption that the Iran war would resemble past geopolitical crises: a sharp but temporary disruption followed by a quick return to normality.
Increasingly, investors are concluding otherwise. The issue is no longer simply how much oil can move through Hormuz. Markets need to know whether the global energy system can quickly rebuild the inventories, refinery capacity and supply chains damaged by months of conflict.
Read my @ReutersOI column reuters.com/commentary/reute…
The Trump administration is considering easing sanctions on so-called shadow fleet vessels that have transported oil and petroleum products from countries including Russia, Iran and Venezuela, in an effort to reduce record-high global freight rates, a US official told @Reuters.
The goal is to get more refined products and crude out of the Gulf, the official said.
US Energy Secretary said this week that the administration is looking at easing the sanctions on shadow fleet vessels in an effort to cut record freight rates that have cut into demand for US crude.
Industry experts including @EnergyAspects say however that easing sanctions will not greatly impact freight rates even if it will allow more movement of oil in the Middle East.
reuters.com/legal/government…
COLUMN: Oil's long view darkens as Iran war refuses to end
Oil markets initially treated the Iran war as a brief bullish disruption in a long-term bearish trend. But traders are now betting that oil prices will remain elevated through 2028, forcing a rethink of the global inflation outlook.
Eight months into the war, the buffers that helped absorb the initial energy shock – most notably onshore crude oil stockpiles – are wearing dangerously thin. At the same time, the recovery in crude exports through the Strait of Hormuz remains fragile, global refining capacity has been eroded and credible diplomatic pathways to end the conflict appear narrower than ever.
Global benchmark Brent crude futures tell the story. Contracts for delivery in December 2027 have climbed more than 13% since the start of September to $86 a barrel, the highest level for the contract, while December 2026 contracts have gained around 12%.
The Brent forward curve is not a price forecast, of course. But it reflects the willingness of refiners, airlines, commodity traders and asset managers to lock in elevated prices months and even years into the future. In effect, market participants are paying a premium against the possibility that todays disruptions will become tomorrows normal.
Read my @ReutersOI column: reuters.com/commentary/reute…
Record high tanker rates due to the Iran war are filtering into the core financials of major traders.
This small line at the bottom of Shell's Q3 trading update is extremely interesting - my understanding is that @Shell has had to increase the value of a number of tankers it leases on its balance sheet, due to the record high freight rates we've hit in recent months.
We're talking several billion dollars, according to my understanding, enough to dent Shell's net debt in a quarter that generated tonnes of cash flow.
This is just one small example of how the Mideast conflict is having deep and long-lasting impact on how the oil and gas markets operate.
BP trading update is a mixed bag:
- The most significant update is that BP has hit its net debt reduction target of $14 to $18 billion five quarters ahead of target. The company expects net debt to be in the range of $13.5 to $14.5 billion in Q3, vs $22.3 billion in the second quarter. That's massive.
- BP nevertheless had $37 billion in additional liabilities at the end of Q2, and that has been a big worry for investors. The liabilities include Gulf of Mexico spill provisions, leases and hybrid bonds. Reducing that would take longer, but the big drop in Q3 is a step in the right direction.
- Results will be lifted by stellar refining margins, as expected.
- BP will write off another $3 billion to $4.5 billion, relating to its gas and low-carbon energy segment. That adds to tens of billions of impairments in recent years, mostly due to its failed energy transition strategy. That's shareholder value evaportated.
- Trading - gas and LNG trading is set to be significantly higher compared with Q2, while oil trading will be broadly flat.
- bp will host a strategy and outlook update on 15 December 2026 in New York. I would expect CEO Meg O'Neill to outline her vision for BP's portfolio, which will probably be axed around developing new oil and gas resources.
















