Andy Singleton

On the AI regulation panic. My 2 cents.. Capabilities and diffusion have already decoupled. The X community's reaction to Dario et al. calling for paced capabilities is arguing over a settled fact. This decoupling was inevitable, whether enforced by government action (Fable 5 getting export controlled) or by coordinated pacing from the private labs as Dario proposed today. Dangerous capability is entangled with general capability -> cyber is the most grindable dangerous domain and you can't strip it out surgically, so every frontier release re-opens the same gate. Whether that gate is Washington or a lab consortium is a governance detail, not a change in regime. So stop freaking out. This isn't your problem to solve. This is a lab-layer problem with a lab-layer solution. Not an ecosystem problem. Take a step back and think why the labs tend to lead the safety narrative: they are overweighting the capabilities they observe in verifiable domains. RLVR compounds only where outcomes are dense, replayable and gradeable, where the base model already puts mass on the solution and you can grind rollouts in parallel. This is a narrow ecosystem: Code, math and cyber. If you use frontier models to code, you probably feel these are AGI-like machines. Same for math. Same for cyber. But if you use frontier models to work through non-verifiable domains and you are at the frontier of your field, you appreciate how limited they are and how much work is ahead before they are ready for RSI. Non-stationary, reset-free domains, like markets, have sparse, delayed, self-erasing outcomes. Sample-efficient continual learning is unsolved, and scaling context doesn't substitute for it. So for all those claims arguing AGI is here (including the goat Jensen), I welcome you to show us where we reached general intelligence in macro investing. Or life sciences. Or anything reset-free. The labs and frontier users are sampling different regions of the same capability surface. Labs live in the grindable region and extrapolate; domain experts live in the ungrindable one and see the ceiling. Both observations are correct. Only one generalizes to RSI, and it isn't the labs'. So the pessimism from the labs makes sense BUT also feels trivial to anyone in the real world. Capability-diffusion decoupling is the natural state of the diffusion regime. It shouldn't be a point of contention. Labs pace their development so models don't become superhuman hackers. The rest of us keep pushing frontier work in domains where the models are still nowhere near that. Tip -> don’t freak out when the hyperscalers decide to pace themselves too. That is the most bullish market outcome out there Keep grinding…