Note, the lead is not widening. Vote anything but Hochul!
**4 MORE YEARS AND SHE’LL HAVE DOUBLED THE DEFICIT**
Do you want another four years of rising bills, thinner services, and a bigger hole in the state’s finances?
Under the current path the gap between what New York spends and what it collects in state taxes has already climbed from roughly $90 billion in 2022 to about $143 billion today. By 2030 that same gap reaches $200 billion--more than double where it stood four years ago. That is not abstract accounting. It shows up in everyday costs.
A household already paying among the highest combined state and local taxes in the country can expect continued pressure on utility bills (the state has already layered on dozens of utility tax and fee increases), higher property taxes passed through by local governments, and steeper prices for everything from childcare to car insurance as businesses and landlords absorb higher costs. Medicaid and school-aid growth that outruns revenue means either slower expansion of programs people rely on or higher taxes to keep them going. Transit riders face the prospect of fare hikes or service cuts if the MTA’s own widening gaps are not closed. High earners and businesses continue to leave, shrinking the tax base that is supposed to pay for all of it.
So far the shortfall has been papered over with three familiar tools: large amounts of federal aid, draws on cash balances and reserves, and one-time accounting moves. Federal money has covered a big share of Medicaid, education, and other programs, but those dollars are not permanent and are already being reduced. Reserves sit near $15 billion and have been kept flat even as the budget grows, so the cushion gets thinner relative to the size of the problem. One-time fixes and timing shifts make the current year look better while pushing the real cost into later years. The result is a larger structural gap--Comptroller DiNapoli has flagged roughly $32 billion in cumulative shortfalls across 2028–2030--without a durable plan to close it.
A state cannot run this way indefinitely. Spending that keeps rising faster than the tax base, while population stagnates and high-income residents leave, eventually forces a choice: higher taxes on the people and businesses that remain, cuts to the services those taxes are supposed to fund, or both. Four more years on the same trajectory simply makes the reckoning larger.
**4 MORE YEARS AND SHE’LL HAVE DOUBLED THE DEFICIT**
Do you want another four years of rising bills, thinner services, and a bigger hole in the state’s finances?
Under the current path the gap between what New York spends and what it collects in state taxes has already climbed from roughly $90 billion in 2022 to about $143 billion today. By 2030 that same gap reaches $200 billion--more than double where it stood four years ago. That is not abstract accounting. It shows up in everyday costs.
A household already paying among the highest combined state and local taxes in the country can expect continued pressure on utility bills (the state has already layered on dozens of utility tax and fee increases), higher property taxes passed through by local governments, and steeper prices for everything from childcare to car insurance as businesses and landlords absorb higher costs. Medicaid and school-aid growth that outruns revenue means either slower expansion of programs people rely on or higher taxes to keep them going. Transit riders face the prospect of fare hikes or service cuts if the MTA’s own widening gaps are not closed. High earners and businesses continue to leave, shrinking the tax base that is supposed to pay for all of it.
So far the shortfall has been papered over with three familiar tools: large amounts of federal aid, draws on cash balances and reserves, and one-time accounting moves. Federal money has covered a big share of Medicaid, education, and other programs, but those dollars are not permanent and are already being reduced. Reserves sit near $15 billion and have been kept flat even as the budget grows, so the cushion gets thinner relative to the size of the problem. One-time fixes and timing shifts make the current year look better while pushing the real cost into later years. The result is a larger structural gap--Comptroller DiNapoli has flagged roughly $32 billion in cumulative shortfalls across 2028–2030--without a durable plan to close it.
A state cannot run this way indefinitely. Spending that keeps rising faster than the tax base, while population stagnates and high-income residents leave, eventually forces a choice: higher taxes on the people and businesses that remain, cuts to the services those taxes are supposed to fund, or both. Four more years on the same trajectory simply makes the reckoning larger.
**4 MORE YEARS AND SHE’LL HAVE PERSONALLY DOUBLED THE DEFICIT**
Do you want another four years of rising bills, thinner services, and a bigger hole in the state’s finances?
Under the current path the gap between what New York spends and what it collects in state taxes has already climbed from roughly $90 billion in 2022 to about $143 billion today. By 2030 that same gap reaches $200 billion--more than double where it stood four years ago. That is not abstract accounting. It shows up in everyday costs.
A household already paying among the highest combined state and local taxes in the country can expect continued pressure on utility bills (the state has already layered on dozens of utility tax and fee increases), higher property taxes passed through by local governments, and steeper prices for everything from childcare to car insurance as businesses and landlords absorb higher costs. Medicaid and school-aid growth that outruns revenue means either slower expansion of programs people rely on or higher taxes to keep them going. Transit riders face the prospect of fare hikes or service cuts if the MTA’s own widening gaps are not closed. High earners and businesses continue to leave, shrinking the tax base that is supposed to pay for all of it.
So far the shortfall has been papered over with three familiar tools: large amounts of federal aid, draws on cash balances and reserves, and one-time accounting moves. Federal money has covered a big share of Medicaid, education, and other programs, but those dollars are not permanent and are already being reduced. Reserves sit near $15 billion and have been kept flat even as the budget grows, so the cushion gets thinner relative to the size of the problem. One-time fixes and timing shifts make the current year look better while pushing the real cost into later years. The result is a larger structural gap--Comptroller DiNapoli has flagged roughly $32 billion in cumulative shortfalls across 2028–2030--without a durable plan to close it.
A state cannot run this way indefinitely. Spending that keeps rising faster than the tax base, while population stagnates and high-income residents leave, eventually forces a choice: higher taxes on the people and businesses that remain, cuts to the services those taxes are supposed to fund, or both. Four more years on the same trajectory simply makes the reckoning larger.
Bad news for us. Ps: Newsday seems a little off on this.
**4 MORE YEARS AND SHE’LL HAVE DOUBLED THE DEFICIT**
Do you want another four years of rising bills, thinner services, and a bigger hole in the state’s finances?
Under the current path the gap between what New York spends and what it collects in state taxes has already climbed from roughly $90 billion in 2022 to about $143 billion today. By 2030 that same gap reaches $200 billion--more than double where it stood four years ago. That is not abstract accounting. It shows up in everyday costs.
A household already paying among the highest combined state and local taxes in the country can expect continued pressure on utility bills (the state has already layered on dozens of utility tax and fee increases), higher property taxes passed through by local governments, and steeper prices for everything from childcare to car insurance as businesses and landlords absorb higher costs. Medicaid and school-aid growth that outruns revenue means either slower expansion of programs people rely on or higher taxes to keep them going. Transit riders face the prospect of fare hikes or service cuts if the MTA’s own widening gaps are not closed. High earners and businesses continue to leave, shrinking the tax base that is supposed to pay for all of it.
So far the shortfall has been papered over with three familiar tools: large amounts of federal aid, draws on cash balances and reserves, and one-time accounting moves. Federal money has covered a big share of Medicaid, education, and other programs, but those dollars are not permanent and are already being reduced. Reserves sit near $15 billion and have been kept flat even as the budget grows, so the cushion gets thinner relative to the size of the problem. One-time fixes and timing shifts make the current year look better while pushing the real cost into later years. The result is a larger structural gap--Comptroller DiNapoli has flagged roughly $32 billion in cumulative shortfalls across 2028–2030--without a durable plan to close it.
A state cannot run this way indefinitely. Spending that keeps rising faster than the tax base, while population stagnates and high-income residents leave, eventually forces a choice: higher taxes on the people and businesses that remain, cuts to the services those taxes are supposed to fund, or both. Four more years on the same trajectory simply makes the reckoning larger.
