We’ve partnered with @trylimitless and to kick it off we're hosting a stream this Wednesday/tmrw at 9 AM EST! We'll be joined by Dima, CPO at Limitless, to discuss what's next for Limitless, our partnership and answer your questions. We're also giving away 10 to 20 in USDC for the best questions asked during the stream! Come hang out, ask questions, and win some prizes. See you Wednesday!

A callback to our interview with @morganlai, where she shared one of the most insightful observations about prediction markets right now: "Prediction markets don't have a liquidity problem. They have a discovery problem." Pm liquidity is fundamentally a distribution issue. Unlike stocks or memecoins, prediction markets are tied to specific events, interests, and moments in time. The challenge is getting the right markets in front of the right people at the right time. @arespro is building to solve exactly this.

Inter, Real Madrid, Sporting and Aston Villa are each priced near 80% to win tonight All four winning together is priced at about 41% Less than a coin flip All 9 Champions League home teams are favored tonight on @trylimitless Their prices add up to 5.65 home wins out of 9, or 63% In the league phase's first two seasons, home teams won 148 of 288 games About half Four lopsided games explain the gap ＞ Inter to beat Shakhtar: 81.1% ＞ Real Madrid to beat Leipzig: 80% ＞ Sporting to beat LASK: 79.2% ＞ Aston Villa to beat Viking: 79% The other five are far from safe ＞ Betis to beat Feyenoord: 61.5% ＞ Brugge to beat Lens: 53.6% ＞ Bayern to beat Arsenal: 44% ＞ Lille to beat Galatasaray: 44% ＞ Como to beat Man United: 42.6% All 9 favorites winning: about 1% How many of the 9 home teams win tonight?

Republicans need 3 of 7 Senate races to keep control. Democrats need 5 of them That math is right. It also counts Kansas as safe Republican control is priced at 36.5% on @trylimitless Republicans already have 31 seats that aren't up this year The 7 are Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, New Hampshire, Ohio and Texas Give them every race outside the 7 where they're favored, and they're at 47 Winning 3 of the 7 gets them to 50, with Vance breaking the tie Run today's odds race by race, and they win 3 or more of the 7 almost half the time So 36.5% looks cheap Until you check the seats that math calls safe In Kansas, Roger Marshall's odds slid from 70.5% to 61.5% in a week. He's still favored, but that's about as tight as Ohio and Texas In Nebraska, independent Dan Osborn is at 28.5% against Pete Ricketts South Carolina is 84.5% Republican, not a lock And New Hampshire, one of those 7, is 89.5% Democratic Count all 35 races and Republicans average about 48 seats, 2 short of 50 If each race moves on its own, they keep the Senate about 25% of the time The real Republican case is that the races move together One polling error in their favor could flip several races at once By rough math, the tighter that link, the better their odds, from about 25% up to about 40% 36.5% sits in the upper half of that range Will this map move as one, or will Republicans have to win it state by state?

Many prediction markets simply aren't worth trading today. You might spot a 3¢ edge, but with capped upside, the return isn't enough to justify the trade. @Lattica is currently building one of the best tools to change that. From our talk with @SteveFlanders22 and @wkflanders