BCA Research is the essential source of macro insight for the world's investors. The leading independent provider of macro investment research. Founded 1949.
Montreal, Quebec
Joined August 2010
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Will US Treasuries be a good equity hedge in the next recession?
48%Yes, still a good hedge
41%No, debt has broken it
11%Only for USD investors
46 votes • Final results
🇺🇸 Wall Street’s growing grip on the US economy
Our Head of Essentials @DougPeta told @YahooFinance:
📈 Stocks aren’t the economy, but they’re influencing it like never before
🏠 Household net worth hit a record 8x+ disposable income at midyear
finance.yahoo.com/economy/ar…
BCA Research retweeted
I have called this humanity’s “teaching calculus to a cat” moment. No matter how good of a teacher you are, you’ll never explain calculus to a cat. We’re nearing the point where AI will come up with all sorts of interesting ideas that we simply won’t be able to understand or appreciate. I wrote about the consequences of that a few weeks ago:
BCA Research retweeted
AI model performance continues to improve. Are we heading towards a technological singularity?
BCA Research retweeted
French government debt exceeds 100% of GDP and continues to rise.
The country has one of the lowest retirement ages in the world and one of the most generous pension systems.
If France had a fast growing economy, it could provide for its aging population. But it does not. Real GDP was flat in Q2 after shrinking by 0.2% in Q1. Growth has averaged only 1.1% since the start of 2023.
France’s productivity performance has been abysmal. Real output per hour worked has grown by a total of only 1.5% since 2015, compared with 20.3% in the US.
Like other European countries, France faces a challenging demographic outlook. The total fertility rate fell to 1.56 in 2025, the lowest level since the end of World War I.
The immigration system is failing. Employment rates among immigrants are considerably lower than those of the rest of the population. According to the OECD, nearly half of second-generation students (those born in France) are innumerate.
This week’s Chief Economist’s View report discusses the outlook for France,
as well as where we are in the AI capex cycle, recent trends in inflation and bond yields, and much more.
Clients can access the report here:
bcaresearch.com/reports/chie…
BCA Research retweeted
This is a really valuable report from my colleagues @ElClutch @RobertTimper1 and Ryan Swift.
The answer to the posed question is an emphatic YES. But there is a "but."
BCA Research retweeted
Why was the S&P 500 up yesterday (Monday)?
Because ... it was Monday
The Table shows that this year's cumulative returns on Mondays were 9.6%. In contrast, the cumulative returns from Tuesdays to Fridays were only 2.5%.
Why? My best guess is that there are institutional investors in the world who buy US stocks on Mondays.
BCA Research retweeted
Sincere question: If there is a shadow glut of GPUs, why are rental rates on older chips still rising?
Business Insider confirms it: Amazon has warehouses of GPUs that can’t be installed, and is buying them so far in advance that a supply chain team said they “didn’t have a clear forecasted path” to installing them.
businessinsider.com/amazon-2…
BCA Research retweeted
Will US Treasuries be a good equity hedge in the next recession?
48%Yes, still a good hedge
41%No, debt has broken it
11%Only for USD investors
46 votes • Final resultsThe US immigration crackdown isn’t lifting inflation today. The risk is what comes next: with fewer workers, steady hiring could push unemployment below 4%, a level historically tied to above-target inflation. Chief Strategist @JLaBergeBCA, on why hawkish Fed surprises remain possible.
Where is the breaking point for stocks?
Half of BCA clients say a 10-year Treasury yield above 6%; 40% say 5.5%. Only 10% think yields don't matter.
History offers clues. Doug Peta finds the S&P 500 has done better when yields rose than when they fell. Peter Berezin notes yields hit 6.5% in the dot-com boom without ending the rally. Arthur Budaghyan points out that equities have corrected whenever the 10-year topped 4.5% in recent years, as the stock-bond correlation turned negative.
BCA Research retweeted
So far, AI has not produced an economy-wide acceleration in productivity growth. Adjusted for shifts in utilization rates, total factor productivity growth was zero in Q2.
BCA Research retweeted
Big thank you to my good friend @MattWeinschenk for sitting down with me in Vegas to talk multipolarity and conflict.
Global chaos doesn’t always mean the worst-case scenario for markets.
On Top Stocks, Matt Weinschenk sits down with geopolitical strategist Marko Papic at the Stansberry Research Conference to discuss how global conflicts can shape markets, and where investors can still find opportunity.
📹: youtube.com/watch?v=zI9QVrun…
@Geo_papic @MattWeinschenk
BCA Research retweeted
San Diego!?!? That's the most GOP-voting major city in California! It's home of the US Third Fleet. The Seals. Famous Top Gun scenes. You can't get more MAGA than that!
Come on guy...
reuters.com/world/us/califor…
BCA Research retweeted
I know that all investors are wired to dismiss anything French politicians say as unlikely to be enough or actually occur, but I think that we are ignoring how profound it is that Marine Le Pen is calling for a budget debt break.
reuters.com/world/europe/fre…
BCA Research retweeted
As late as 2010, the total fertility rate in France was close to 2. By 2025, however, it had dropped to 1.56, making the country increasingly dependent on immigration.
And how are those kids doing in school? Not so well it turns out: Even among second generation immigrants (those born in France), half are innumerate according to the OECD.
Given France’s poor demographic outlook and lack of political will to cut the size of government, the odds of a fiscal crisis continue to rise. France has the biggest bond market in Europe, so the fallout from such a crisis would be vast.
#zutalors
