@DougPeta

Chief US Investment Strategist at BCA Research | Student of Economics, Financial Markets and Immaculate Grid

 New York, NY
Joined December 2023
  • Tweets73
  • Following59
  • Followers422
38Media
He may be the shorter and older brother, but @MagicRatSF hasn’t lost a step.
Risk of Ruin Podcast
@halfkellyAug 7
Bet Bash seminars are a super tough crowd. People leaving in the middle of the presentation is par. But @MagicRatSF @PlusEVAnalytics and @andrewcourt1 all had basically zero defections.
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Is the rent really too damn high? We’re rent burdened at 30% of income, but the San Francisco couple featured on Sunday’s @nytimes front page balked at paying more than 16.4% while she’s only paying 11% in her current digs. Cheer up! The weather’ll be great again in two months.
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Existing shareholders should be asking if it’ll be too much, especially Samsung and Hynix owners who lived through the Asian Tigers era.
Peter Berezin
@PeterBerezinBCAJun 19
The main memory chip makers are increasing capacity. Will it be enough?
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Fresh off the Bank Credit Analyst’s Chart of the Week win, I humbly submit today’s U.S. Investment Strategy for Title of the Week. It’s for everyone who’s wondered why equities have been so resilient.
BCA Research
@bcaresearchMay 9
📈 BCA’s #ChartoftheWeek! The K-shaped economy now extends to business investment. @DougPeta notes: 💻 Demand for information processing equipment is growing even faster than in 1999... 📉 ...yet demand for everything else has only kept pace with inflation for 12 years 📊 The K-shaped same divide now shows up in investment, profits, and equity performance The durability of the tech capex boom will determine when investors should rotate away from the tech-dominated US, and Korea and Taiwan in EM.
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I’m a mere mortal and know I can’t beat @TylerKepner in @immaculategrid so my goal is simply to top him in a square or two every now and then. Not sure if today might have fit the bill but I dug deep.
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We interrupt our regularly scheduled macro and markets programming for the following PSA: If you’re working on your NFL @immaculategrid in public and @FitzMagic_14 offers to play for money, run away. Ditto @_mcameron44 in baseball.
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Global markets didn’t get their ideal outcome in Islamabad (surely the first sentence that has ever begun that way), but SPX futures are taking the news in stride and near-month Brent and WTI futures aren’t exactly freaking out. 1/2
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Aside from the fact that we’ve seen this narrative arc before, some green shoots have sprouted in the labor market. Three months into the year, payrolls have expanded at a 68k/month clip, blowing away 2025’s 10k. 2/3
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The composition of job creation has improved, too. Health care and social assistance are still the biggest sources of payroll expansion but they haven’t been the only game in town so far this year. 3/3
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The article talks about Fibonacci retracement but today was the seventh straight session that the S&P closed below its 200-day moving average.
BCA Research
@bcaresearchMar 26
⚠️ Energy chokepoint keeps pressure on risk Our US Investment Strategist @DougPeta told @business: 🛢️ Until Hormuz flows normalize, inflation pressure is likely to stay elevated 📉 Higher energy costs could keep weighing on global growth ⚠️ From a technical perspective, the worst may not be over yet bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

An 800-Year-Old Math Principle May Help Find Bottom to S&P 500’s Rout

The S&P 500 Index has clocked four consecutive weeks of declines and it’s on track for the worst month in a year.

bloomberg.com
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You mean like saying investment banks do “God’s work?”
Oren Cass
@oren_cassFeb 25
Need some Old-Right commentators to jump in here and explain to Jamie Dimon that whatever the financial sector is doing is reliably rational, productive, value-creating, economy-boosting, and supportive of human flourishing.
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Agreed, especially with the savings rate already near its lows. But January’s 0.8% month-over-month rise in aggregate weekly payrolls (workers * avg hourly earnings * avg weekly hours) means that the gap will narrow next month and the OBBBA tax refunds are coming.
Peter Berezin
@PeterBerezinBCAFeb 20
Something’s gotta give:
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It made my week to learn @greg_ip has been following @bcaresearch for the 30 years I’ve been reading him. Btw, our math checks out: after taxes, a 10% gain in equities is tantamount to an 18% boost in income. Wealth’s influence on activity is rising.
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Full disclosure: This post was written by a Commanders fan from the DMV. Just sayin’
Brian Payne
@thepaynetradeJan 21
#Salesforce is the Dallas Cowboys of Tech — legendary heyday, massive fanbase, and now…perpetual disappointment. Just checking on them boyz 🤠 -10% since the EPS beat and higher FY26 revenue guidance (Dec) -16% YTD -30% from the 2021 SaaS peak
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Thanks to @BNNBloomberg for giving @bcaresearch a chance to weigh in on D.C.’s latest private sector intervention. You really can’t take @ChicagoBooth out of the strategist, even if he graduated an eternity ago. bnnbloomberg.ca/video/shows/…

The concerns of a cap on credit card rates

Doug Peta, chief U.S. investment strategist at BCA Research, joins BNN Bloomberg to provide an outlook for the markets and the setup for U.S. consumer spending

bnnbloomberg.ca
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There’s still nothing doing on the hiring front away from Health Care & Social Assistance and Leisure & Hospitality. Don’t be fooled by December’s unemployment rate decline; the Fed will cut more than expected this year.
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Health care and social assistance cemented its hold over hiring in October and November, while leisure and hospitality remains the only other source of meaningful YTD job creation. We’re lucky to have those spaces, but they don’t pay well.
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Beyond breadth concerns, job creation concentrated in Health Care & Social Assistance poses two challenges: 1. HC&SA activity has nowhere near the multiplier effect of homebuilding, mfg or lending. 2. The functions added YTD pay 85% of the average job.
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Ex-Health Care & Social Assistance, and Leisure & Hospitality, nonfarm payrolls would have shrunk by 21k YTD and 220k since May. And people say equity breadth is narrow. October and November numbers out Tuesday.
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Slipped out to catch a 5:30 showing of the John Prine movie. Brought our daughter with me, too, in case genetics haven’t made her the most uncool kid in the 7th grade. I know I’m out of touch, but I haven’t felt this good since Willie’s set at Farm Aid.
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