This is Scott Elliott. I used to run an election website called https://teapaw.org/t.co/Wotn4ir10q.
Montana
Joined May 2009
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I'm so encouraged by the developments that are occurring since the election of DJT, but I do wonder if it will continue in 2 and 4 years from now. Is this a movement based on a man, or a true sea change based on an ideological shift?
Add'em up! That's over 212 million votes. No other political candidate in United States history across all offices and all careers has ever received more. Donald J Trump is the most voted for person in our nation's great history.
Here's a fact for you... after three nationwide presidential elections, Donald J. Trump owns more votes than any single candidate in the history of the United States. Over 200 million!!
The rhetoric of the Democratic Party in 5 words...
"Every accusation is a confession"
Perfectly stated.
Formerly ElectionProjection retweeted
Top Democratic strategist Jim Messina calling early voting numbers “scary” on MSNBC “is the biggest indication we’ve seen that the early vote is a problem for” Kamala Harris, says @MarkHalperin. Messina’s comments are “brutal honesty. Look at every major urban center in the swing states and there is not one — not Philadelphia, Milwaukee, Detroit, Atlanta, Las Vegas or Phoenix — where Democrats are doing well. And the problem is two voting blocs. It's Blacks, Latinos and people of color and young voters.”
#HarrisWalz #Trump @2waytvapp
I wish I had held to my 7 point Trump win in the national vote.
Looking at data coming out today regarding early vote turnout and indies preference, I'm starting to think my predictions are too blue.
Finding the nugget of truth in an otherwise ludicrous national poll from Marist.... Among independents, Trump leads by 7! That's landslide territory and precludes an electorate that has more Dems than Gopers.
I believe the big story on election night will be Trump's performance with Democrats - recall the 'Reagan Democrats' - especially among Latinos.
The issues are in our favor, the candidates are in our favor, even the polls are in our favor. Let's go execute and we got this big!
Factors driving my projections:
5 of 5: Maine's mock poll of 20K students has predicted correctly the last several elections. This year, Trump won it by double-digits.
Factors driving my projections:
4 of 5: Improved performance for Trump among Latino voters. I'm projecting 45% compared to 36% in 2020. This factor contributes substantially to New Mexico flipping to red.
Factors driving my projections:
3 of 5: Trump increasing black vote from 9% nationally to 13%. This is not a major uptick considering where some polls have Trump's improvement among blacks (up to 30%).