brian cho

Ben Horowitz: “The most dangerous thing going on in AI is Anthropic and Bill Gates” “Anybody can go say, ‘AI is going to kill us,’ and you'll be on every major news station and every newspaper and so forth. I think it's extremely dangerous, though, when it comes from Bill Gates because he is so credible, because he did build Microsoft, and people think of him that way, and then certainly he's been a big political donor, so he has a lot of political juice, particularly on the Democratic side. The big risk that everybody talks about is that the models are going to recursively self-improve, and then they're going to take off, and then they're going to become so smart and run away from us. Well, what would be the preconditions for that? Ali Ghodsi from Databricks had a great formulation of, ‘Well, what would be the preconditions for that?’ And he had four preconditions. One is that the next model has to require fewer GPUs than the last. The second thing is the next model has to take less time to train. And then the accuracy of the next model has to be better than the last, so it's got to be a better model. And then finally, it's gotta keep happening again and again and again. Zero of those four have been met. We're not on track for any of those four to be met, and so we're really talking about a risk that's entirely theoretical at this point that we're not mapping to.”