
Paleocon, populist, social conservative. Enjoyer of far right politics. Not affiliated with Pat Buchanan. Trad Catholic 🇻🇦#Carlson2028
Maine, USA
Joined March 2023
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2026 Midterm Final Prediction
House of Representatives
Republicans are almost certain to lose the House. Fortunately for them, the mid-decade redistricting efforts have provided some protection against a Democratic wave.
As a result, Republicans are looking at a 2018-style loss rather than a 2008-style collapse.
My final prediction:
Democrats: 237 seats
Republicans: 198 seats
My margin of error is approximately ±10 seats.
On a good night for Republicans, the House could finish at 227 Democrats and 208 Republicans. On a bad night, Democrats could reach 247 seats while Republicans fall to 188. For now, 237–198 is my most likely outcome.
Senate
This is where the real disaster is unfolding. Unlike the House, there is no way to minimize losses through redistricting. Every Senate race is statewide, and Republicans will have nowhere to hide from voter anger over the war in Iran and the struggling economy.
My final Senate prediction:
Democrats: 52 seats
Republicans: 48 seats
If the polls are significantly wrong, Republicans could potentially scrape by with 50 or 51 seats. But based on the current political environment, I believe Democrats are the clear favorites to win the chamber.
Senate Battleground Prediction By State
Minnesota D+11
North Carolina D+10
Georgia D+8
New Hampshire D+7
Michigan D+5
Maine D+3.4
Ohio D+2.6
Texas D+1.5
Alaska D+1
Iowa R+1
Kansas R+3
South Carolina R+6
Nebraska R+8
Florida R+10
Texas is my tipping-point state. If Democrats win there, they are almost certainly taking the Senate.
Dems will also make small gains in the gubernatorial races flipping Ohio and Alaska.
The Bigger Picture
The most frustrating part of this entire situation is that it was largely avoidable.
Republicans had an opportunity to build on their electoral success by focusing on the promises that brought them back to power: economic relief, lower costs, fiscal responsibility, and putting American interests first.
Instead, Trump chose to plunge the country into another war with no clear end in sight, while Americans continue to struggle with the economy.
The consequences are now becoming increasingly difficult to ignore.
Unless something changes dramatically, Republicans are not just looking at a disastrous 2026 midterm. They are also putting the 2028 election in serious jeopardy.
This is what happens when a party mistakes electoral victories for a mandate to abandon its own promises
#Elections2026 #Midterms #Senate #GOP #DEMOCRAT #Trump
Trump needs to look in the mirror. Sure Susie wiles sucks but at the end of the day her hired her.
The buck stops with him. He needs to resign for the good of the country and the conservative movement.
This is how I feel as well.
Donald Trump is a 80 year old infant who cannot take a single ounce of personal responsibility. He needs to resign from the presidency
I predict the results will be Pingree 54% Charles 41% and Bennett 5% teapaw.org/i/election/race/104728…
My tentative final election prediction has Dems getting above 240 house seats and 52-54 senate seats.
They will also net governorships as well.
Bleak times ahead. Unless something changes 2028 is lost too
Marist knows the last poll they put out was garbage. That’s why the will likely release a new poll showing pingree ahead
Coming tomorrow morning:
New numbers in Maine’s competitive U.S. Senate and governor’s races, plus the latest in New York’s race for governor. Keep a look out for the Marist Poll’s latest look at the midterms.
Subscribe now to get it when it's released: maristpoll.com/podcast
The 5 Worst GOP Gubernatorial nominees of 2026 (updated)
1. Victor Marx (CO)
2. Bobby Charles (ME)
3. Vivek Ramaswamy (OH)
4. Darren Bailey (IL)
5. Dan Cox (MD)
Congrats @VivekGRamaswamy for now being one step below Bobby Charles on the worst nominees list. Keep it up and you may do him a favor by moving him down to 3rd place!
Yeah he deserves to lose at this point.
#OhioGovernor
Vivek Ramaswamy campaign doubles down on controversial ad that features Acton’s estranged mother.
“We don't know what happened between Amy and her mother, who first spoke out about Amy in 2020, but we know that Amy Acton is a serial fabulist who has some serious problems with the truth that the public needs to be aware of before deciding who to entrust as governor.”
Boomers are happy to cheer on endless wars in the name of defending Israel while expecting working-age Americans to shoulder the tax burden at home. They get to support foreign intervention and preserve the benefits they enjoy, while younger generations are left footing the bill, struggling with housing costs, and wondering whether they’ll ever get the same opportunities.
At some point, we need to ask why the financial burden of these decisions keeps falling on the people who can least afford it.
“I’m old. I’ve paid my home off,” said Ray Warner, a 72-year-old Akron resident. “Why would I pay property tax?”
Across the country, homeowners are asking the same question and revolting against property taxes at a scale not seen in a half century.
politico.com/news/magazine/2…
But I was told it was imperative to stop Iran from having NuKeS!
Only 6% of Boomers say that the Iran Conflict is their number one issue this fall.
But among Zoomers, its 24%.
thehonestpoll.substack.com/p…
Sadly, @Peops_Pundit is 💯 correct here. Trump had an opportunity to rid the Republican Party of swamp creatures like Lindsey Graham. Instead, he chose PAC money over meaningful, long-term change.
The midterms are shaping up to be a disaster for Republicans, and the worst part is that much of this was avoidable. Had Trump stayed out of Iran, released the Epstein files, and focused on domestic issues, Republicans could have been in a much stronger position heading into November.
Instead, the House majority is in jeopardy, the Senate is at risk, and the GOP’s prospects for 2028 are slipping away.
This is what happens when a president prioritizes personal loyalty, political favors, and foreign entanglements over the promises he made to the American people.
Very sad. And entirely unnecessary.
BARIS ON TRUMP: The WH thought @LindseyGrahamSC was worth something. He wasn’t. You could have steamrolled him.
You promised to go after all of them. But you didn’t, bc the PAC money was more important.
‘Why fight Cornyn over those stupid little voters, since he can raise over $100M in a PAC that I can stuff in my fat fucking pockets?’
All these friggin’ grifters get disgustingly rich burning MAGA to the ground.
A lot of really bad people got rich along the way. While you got screwed.
















