
Disaster recovery @busgus@sfba.social but https://xitter.cf/t.co/AHWbog0dPR
Potrero Hill
Joined March 2017
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Some of the Treasury real rate move has to be covering expected royal family graft ft.pressreader.com/v99e/2026…
There is a story like this in the paper every single day xitter.cf/maxseddon/status/21139…
The market is down because the only people allowed to make money for the foreseeable future wear red ballcaps
The former CEO of a $25bn US gas venture has accused Russian energy giant Novatek of secretly controlling the project, triggering a mass resignation of company leadership over fears it is violating US sanctions.
A wild story with @JamieSmythF:
ft.com/content/e9cfbfbb-e65a…
Every single day xitter.cf/JasJWright/status/2114…
Trump responds to our reporting, that White House attorneys are weighing whether to issue mass pardons to junior staffers, as allies push them to protect lower-ranked officials from prosecution and other legal challenges.
Link here: washingtonsun.com/whitehouse…
Replying to @therealmugomar @MasterTiff1
This account is doing a stupid if timely bit: the Trump bit.
It makes an incoherent attack on favored enemies. Called out for its delusions, it lards outlandish attacks on the critic.
I have a rule for this which I'll follow after I block its followers xitter.cf/busgus/status/15537980…
Sadly I note twitter now exposes only around fifty followers, the glory days of chainblocking thousands of chuds are past.
Still, in case it helps anyone xitter.cf/busgus/status/21001037…
Had the robot fork an open source tool as codefloe.com/busgus/x-follow…
S-m-r-t
Replying to @realwillreil
Build a basic downdraft table. Get some peg board, build a simple frame, cut a hole for a shop vac hose. Buy or print a coupler, and you’re good to go
Jajaja optimizing from 2020-06-30 gives 50% TIPS.
Disc: my TIPS allocation is much, much smaller than 50%.
Viz optimization testfol.io/optimizer?s=fpQH3…
Replying to @ValueStockGeek
Testfolio sharpe optimizer gave tips higher weight than reits or gold testfol.io/optimizer?s=3NivD…
But whatever it takes to get real rates to a 4 handle again xitter.cf/busgus/status/21108348…
The best ever death metal band out of Denton.
(Boone briefly went to college in Denton, graduating Columbia)
Replying to @AndrewCurran_
'--if you are the #1 in AI and #1 in ecommerce in China, 2x profit in 10 years is not a big ask
...
--If doubling EBIT in 10 years is difficult, then you are a 8-10x EBIT business, and capital allocation needs to change'
Alibaba provided September guidance last week:
--IMO it is impossible to make sense of the performance of this company division by division (reasons below)
--the only thing one can reasonably do is to look at the total EBITA of the company
The guide for total Sep26 Q EBITA is around c.RMB 30bn
--assume they hit 31bn to beat
--then bring share comp back in, and that's 28bn EBITA (USD 4.2bn)
So you can see how bad that number is, take two steps back, and here's a comparison:
(also using adj EBITA with share comp back in)
Sep26 Q EBITA USD est. 4.2bn
Sep24 Q EBITA USD5.5bn (before bubbletea wars)
Sep23 Q EBITA USD5.4bn
Sep22 Q EBITA USD4.2bn (ah, same)
Sep19 Q EBITA USD3.6bn
--EBIT is still 25% below 2023-24 levels
--EBIT is flat for 4 years
--hey at least they have grown it 1.2x in 7 years despite regulations and macro and PDD/Bytedance competition
--Amazon EBIT is up 4.5x in the same period. And that's why Alibaba trades 12x LTM EV/EBIT (I use 80% of 2024 EBIT) and Amazon at 30x
What about Q FCF:
--Subtract from USD 4.2bn EBIT say USD 5-8bn of capex (it was USD 10bn last Q...), and voila
--But that's ok, nobody looks at FCF for hyperscalers
--However, Alibaba is not a US hyperscaler. US guys have strong core business, performing at record EBIT levels as they push monetization on them to pay for AI. BABA clearly is not being able to squeeze monetization from their core business. Which means they need capital. And we have seen how bad they executed on that.
--So maybe 12x EBIT for Alibaba is rich...
What does Alibaba need to show if they want to re-rate?
--To me it is very simple:
---show us a Very Clear, Very Doable, path to USD40bn total EBIT, Pretty Soon
--40bn is 2x the CY 2019 EBIT
--if you are the #1 in AI and #1 in ecommerce in China, 2x profit in 10 years is not a big ask
--do not give me headaches with divisional splits and made-up break even targets, I don't care
--If doubling EBIT in 10 years is difficult, then you are a 8-10x EBIT business, and capital allocation needs to change
--I am rooting for you, but you are becoming a small speculative bet, and not a core part of any portfolio, and we get macro and competition, but a lot of it is self inflicted
Appendix:
Why it is impossible to make sense of the performance of this company division by division, and only consolidated EBIT matters:
1-because they keep changing the breakdowns (twice in two years) and at this stage I can't be bothered
2-because they have three kitchen sinks to move expenses around. Grow revenue on one side, allocate part of the associated expenses to other, all these businesses are connected in many places:
--QC expenses (who cares about CMR growth and "ecomm ex QC" performance when QC subsidies fuel part of that)
--AI Lab (who cares about cloud growth and margin when you need 14bn expenses elsewhere to partially drive it)
--All others (now all other divisions grouped into one, again how much of the expenses there, like Amap or Alihealth, is ebit in cloud etc)
--Like investment banking having to pay for half of equity research, the infamy
I am not suggesting the above wrong. If they run the business that way, that's fine. But we don't see the full picture, so don't expect us to judge your performance by KPIs and breakdowns that we have no idea how they are made.
greetings @joetsai1999 hope the basketball season is going well and that you manage to get nice food in the Europe AI conference tours. Life is to live it. Hope you get the chance to join us again soon in an earnings call, like Pony does.
Today I learned, See ic3.gov/PSA/2026/PSA260430
Replying to @vxunderground
Oh I see, this is a known thing and the FBI recent put out a thingie about this in April. Apparently they're partnering with actual gangs to rob trucks and stuff
ic3.gov/PSA/2026/PSA260430
Fine, a non gimmick edition
gutenberg.org/ebooks/1540
gutenberg.org/ebooks/76513
gutenberg.org/ebooks/219
de.wikisource.org/wiki/Schak… (or web.viu.ca/johnstoi/kafka/ja…)
gutenberg.net.au/ebooks02/02…
fadedpage.com/showbook.php?p…
archive.org/details/bwb_W9-D…
archive.org/details/isbn_046…
overdrive.com/media/1942679/…
Sometimes twitter is good
Replying to @DeepDishEnjoyer
found an old youtube link youtube.com/watch?v=mjODsKBm…
noticed it was only copyright struck & not removed fully, plugged it into polsy.org.uk/stuff/ytrestric… to see if there were any countries it's available in.
available in only italy for some reason
vpned into italy and downloaded.































